Predicting Short-Term Traffic Flow by Long Short-Term Memory Recurrent Neural Network

Abstract

Intelligent Transportation System (ITS) is a significant part of smart city, and short-term traffic flow prediction plays an important role in intelligent transportation management and route guidance. A number of models and algorithms based on time series prediction and machine learning were applied to short-term traffic flow prediction and achieved good results. However, most of the models require the length of the input historical data to be predefined and static, which cannot automatically determine the optimal time lags. To overcome this shortage, a model called Long Short-Term Memory Recurrent Neural Network (LSTM RNN) is proposed in this paper, which takes advantages of the three multiplicative units in the memory block to determine the optimal time lags dynamically. The dataset from Caltrans Performance Measurement System (PeMS) is used for building the model and comparing LSTM RNN with several well-known models, such as random walk(RW), support vector machine(SVM), single layer feed forward neural network(FFNN) and stacked autoencoder(SAE). The results show that the proposed prediction model achieves higher accuracy and generalizes well.