Bus Arrival Time Prediction: A Comprehensive Review
Abstract
Bus arrival prediction systems play a crucial role in enhancing the efficiency and reliability of public transportation networks. Existing reviews in this area mainly focus on travel time prediction, without paying enough attention to the data, the patterns in the data, which can help in identifying the regressors for the models, various implementation strategies adopted and on performance evaluation techniques. To address these short-comings, this paper aims to provide a comprehensive overview of 1) methods available to collect and analyse the travel time data; 2) modelling of bus travel time using naive approaches to physics based and data driven approaches; 3) pattern identification techniques that can identify inputs for the modelling; 4) various implementation strategies including route discretization, multi-step prediction and utilization of data obtained from single route and multiple routes; 5) evaluation metrics and performance evaluation strategies adopted by bus transit agencies followed by challenges faced and way forward. Thus, this paper aims to guide researchers toward developing more accurate, reliable, and user-centric bus arrival time prediction systems, which are crucial for enhancing public transportation efficiency and user experience.
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Flagged first, then by citations
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Optimizing SARIMAX Model with Big Data to Predict Gaming Tourism Destination Demand
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SmartTransit OS: Human-Governed Decision Support for Intelligent Public Transportation Management
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- Authors
- Kumar, B. A., Singh, R., Shaji, H. E., & Vanajakshi, L.
- Affiliations
- Indian Institute of Technology Patna (IN)
- Indian Institute of Technology Madras (IN)
- Venue
- IEEE Transactions on Intelligent Transportation Systems
- Published
- 2025-06
- Volume
- 26
- Issue
- 6
- Pages
- 7362-7379
- ISSN
- 1524-9050 (ISSN-L)
- 1558-0016
- OpenAlex
- W4408047520
- Cited by
- 13
- References
- 165
- Citations by year
- 2026: 10 · 2025: 3
- FWCI
- 4.74
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Licence
- Locations
- IEEE Transactions on Intelligent Transportation Systems (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Engineering › Building and Construction › Traffic Prediction and Management Techniques
- Social Sciences › Transportation › Transportation Planning and Optimization
- Physical Sciences › Engineering › Civil and Structural Engineering › Urban Transport Systems Analysis
- Keywords
- bus arrival time prediction, public transport, pattern identification, multi-step forecasting, performance indicators, physics-based modeling, data-driven modeling, transit agencies
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