Effects of surrounding land use and water depth on seagrass dynamics relative to a catastrophic algal bloom.
Abstract
Seagrasses are the foundation of many coastal ecosystems and are in global decline because of anthropogenic impacts. For the Indian River Lagoon (Florida, U.S.A.), we developed competing multistate statistical models to quantify how environmental factors (surrounding land use, water depth, and time [year]) influenced the variability of seagrass state dynamics from 2003 to 2014 while accounting for time-specific detection probabilities that quantified our ability to determine seagrass state at particular locations and times. We classified seagrass states (presence or absence) at 764 points with geographic information system maps for years when seagrass maps were available and with aerial photographs when seagrass maps were not available. We used 4 categories (all conservation, mostly conservation, mostly urban, urban) to describe surrounding land use within sections of lagoonal waters, usually demarcated by land features that constricted these waters. The best models predicted that surrounding land use, depth, and year would affect transition and detection probabilities. Sections of the lagoon bordered by urban areas had the least stable seagrass beds and lowest detection probabilities, especially after a catastrophic seagrass die-off linked to an algal bloom. Sections of the lagoon bordered by conservation lands had the most stable seagrass beds, which supports watershed conservation efforts. Our results show that a multistate approach can empirically estimate state-transitio…
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Claims the paper makes
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
The following year, brown tide (Aureoumbra lagunensis) in the northern Indian River Lagoon again impaired seagrass growth, resulting in still more losses.
“The following year, brown tide (Aureoumbra lagunensis) in the northern IRL again impaired seagrass growth, resulting in still more losses (Gobler et al., 2013;Phlips et al., 2015;Breininger et al., 2017;Morris et al., 2018).”
From Novel Lethal Clostridial Infection in Florida Manatees (Trichechus manatus latirostris): Cause of the 2013 Unusual Mortality Event in the Indian River Lagoon (2022) · cites this paper as Breininger et al., 2017
Cites
The value of the world's ecosystem services and natural capital
Costanza, R., d'Arge, R., de Groot, R., Farber, S., Grasso, M., Hannon, B., Limburg, K., Naeem, S., O'Neill, R. V., Paruelo, J., et al. (1997) · Nature · doi:10.1038/387253a0 · Cited by 22,585 · see citing works
A global crisis for seagrass ecosystems
ORTH, R. J., CARRUTHERS, T. J. B., DENNISON, W. C., DUARTE, C. M., FOURQUREAN, J. W., HECK, K. L., HUGHES, A. R., KENDRICK, G. A., KENWORTHY, W. J., OLYARNIK, S., et al. (2006) · BioScience · doi:10.1641/0006-3568(2006)56[987:agcfse]2.0.co;2 · Cited by 3,100 · see citing works
Monitoring of biological diversity in space and time
Yoccoz, N. G., Nichols, J. D., & Boulinier, T. (2001) · Trends in Ecology & Evolution · doi:10.1016/s0169-5347(01)02205-4 · Cited by 1,457 · see citing works
Nichols, J. M., & WILLIAMS, B. (2006) · Trends in Ecology & Evolution · doi:10.1016/j.tree.2006.08.007 · Cited by 1,319 · see citing works
Introductory Digital Image Processing
Jensen, J. R. (2004) · Cited by 1,096 · see citing works
Burkholder, J. M., Tomasko, D. A., & Touchette, B. W. (2007) · Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology · doi:10.1016/j.jembe.2007.06.024 · Cited by 788 · see citing works
Effects of irradiance, temperature, and nutrients on growth dynamics of seagrasses: A review
Lee, K., Park, S. R., & Kim, Y. K. (2007) · Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology · doi:10.1016/j.jembe.2007.06.016 · Cited by 783 · see citing works
Return to Neverland: Shifting Baselines Affect Eutrophication Restoration Targets
Duarte, C. M., Conley, D. J., Carstensen, J., & Sánchez-Camacho, M. (2008) · Estuaries and Coasts · doi:10.1007/s12237-008-9111-2 · Cited by 629 · see citing works
Influence of physical setting on seagrass landscapes near Beaufort, North Carolina, USA
Fonseca, M., & Bell, S. (1998) · Marine Ecology Progress Series · doi:10.3354/meps171109 · Cited by 417 · see citing works
Unravelling complexity in seagrass systems for management: Australia as a microcosm
Kilminster, K. L., McMahon, K., Waycott, M., Kendrick, G. A., Scanes, P., McKenzie, L., O’Brien, K. R., Lyons, M., Ferguson, A. J. P., Maxwell, P., et al. (2015) · The Science of The Total Environment · doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.04.061 · Cited by 370 · see citing works
Tu, J. (2010) · Applied Geography · doi:10.1016/j.apgeog.2010.08.001 · Cited by 347 · see citing works
Positive Feedbacks in Seagrass Ecosystems: Implications for Success in Conservation and Restoration
van der Heide, T., van Nes, E. H., Geerling, G., Smolders, A. J. P., Bouma, T. J., & van Katwijk, M. M. (2007) · Ecosystems · doi:10.1007/s10021-007-9099-7 · Cited by 302 · see citing works
Valiela, I., & Cole, M. L. (2002) · Ecosystems · doi:10.1007/s10021-001-0058-4 · Cited by 268 · see citing works
Evidence of sewage-driven eutrophication and harmful algal blooms in Florida’s Indian River Lagoon.
Lapointe, B. E., Herren, L. W., Debortoli, D. D., & Vogel, M. A. (2015) · Harmful Algae · doi:10.1016/j.hal.2015.01.004 · Cited by 267 · see citing works
Experimental Studies of Caribbean Seagrass Bed Development
Williams, S. L. (1990) · Ecological Monographs · doi:10.2307/1943015 · Cited by 247 · see citing works
Viaroli, P., Bartoli, M., Giordani, G., Naldi, M., Orfanidis, S., & Zaldivar, J. M. (2008) · Aquatic Conservation Marine and Freshwater Ecosystems · doi:10.1002/aqc.956 · Cited by 237 · see citing works
The application of remote sensing to seagrass ecosystems: an overview and future research prospects
Hossain, M. S., Bujang, J. S., Zakaria, M. H., & Hashim, M. (2014) · International Journal of Remote Sensing · doi:10.1080/01431161.2014.990649 · Cited by 231 · see citing works
Multistate Survival Models and Their Extensions in Program MARK
White, G. C., Kendall, W. L., & Barker, R. (2006) · Journal of Wildlife Management · doi:10.2193/0022-541x(2006)70[1521:msmate]2.0.co;2 · Cited by 166 · see citing works
Laguna Madre: Seagrass Changes Continue Decades after Salinity Reduction
Quammen, M. L., & Onuf, C. P. (1993) · Estuaries · doi:10.2307/1352503 · Cited by 138 · see citing works
FORECASTING RESPONSES OF SEAGRASS DISTRIBUTIONS TO CHANGING WATER QUALITY USING MONITORING DATA
Fourqurean, J. W., Boyer, J. N., Durako, M. J., Hefty, L. N., & Peterson, B. J. (2003) · Ecological Applications · doi:10.1890/1051-0761(2003)013[0474:frosdt]2.0.co;2 · Cited by 130 · see citing works
Tidal and Nontidal Flushing of Florida's Indian River Lagoon
Smith, N. P. (1993) · Estuaries · doi:10.2307/1352432 · Cited by 128 · see citing works
Phlips, E. J., Badylak, S., Lasi, M. A., Chamberlain, R., Green, W. C., Hall, L. M., Hart, J. A., Lockwood, J. C., Miller, J. D., Morris, L. J., et al. (2015) · Estuaries and Coasts · doi:10.1007/s12237-014-9874-6 · Cited by 113 · see citing works
Changing Paradigms in Seagrass Restoration
Cunha, A. H., Marbà, N., van Katwijk, M. M., Pickerell, C., Henriques, M., Bernard, G., Ferreira, M. A., García, S. A., Garmendia, J. M., & Manent, P. (2012) · Restoration Ecology · doi:10.1111/j.1526-100x.2012.00878.x · Cited by 110 · see citing works
DYNAMICS OF A SUBTIDAL SEAGRASS LANDSCAPE: SEASONAL AND ANNUAL CHANGE IN RELATION TO WATER DEPTH
Robbins, B. D., & Bell, S. S. (2000) · Ecology · doi:10.1890/0012-9658(2000)081[1193:doassl]2.0.co;2 · Cited by 105 · see citing works
Virnstein, R. W., & Carbonara, P. A. (1985) · Aquatic Botany · doi:10.1016/0304-3770(85)90021-x · Cited by 103 · see citing works
Buskey, E. J., Liu, H., Collumb, C., & Bersano, J. G. F. (2001) · Estuaries · doi:10.2307/1353236 · Cited by 100 · see citing works
Gallegos, M., Ibarra, M. M., Rodríguez, A. J. P., Marbà, N., & Duarte, C. M. (1994) · Marine Ecology Progress Series · doi:10.3354/meps109099 · Cited by 99 · see citing works
Adaptive resource management and the value of information
Williams, B. K., Eaton, M. J., & Breininger, D. R. (2011) · Ecological Modelling · doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2011.07.003 · Cited by 98 · see citing works
Self-citationChallenges of remote sensing for quantifying changes in large complex seagrass environments
Roelfsema, C., Kovács, É., Saunders, M. I., Phinn, S., Lyons, M., & Maxwell, P. (2013) · Estuarine Coastal and Shelf Science · doi:10.1016/j.ecss.2013.08.026 · Cited by 96 · see citing works
Sigua, G. C., Steward, J. S., & Tweedale, W. A. (2000) · Environmental Management · doi:10.1007/s002679910016 · Cited by 94 · see citing works
Steward, J. S., Virnstein, R. W., Lasi, M. A., Morris, L. J., Miller, J. D., Hall, L. M., & Tweedale, W. A. (2006) · Estuaries and Coasts · doi:10.1007/bf02798656 · Cited by 92 · see citing works
Hall, L., Hanisak, M. D., & Virnstein, R. W. (2006) · Marine Ecology Progress Series · doi:10.3354/meps310109 · Cited by 87 · see citing works
Seagrass on the edge: Land-use practices threaten coastal seagrass communities in Sabah, Malaysia
Freeman, A. S., Short, F. T., Isnain, I., Razak, F., & Coles, R. (2008) · Biological Conservation · doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2008.09.018 · Cited by 86 · see citing works
Kendall, W. L., Hines, J. E., & Nichols, J. D. (2003) · Ecology · doi:10.1890/0012-9658(2003)084[1058:amcmfm]2.0.co;2 · Cited by 82 · see citing works
Exploring spatial vegetation dynamics using logistic regression and a multinomial logit model
Augustin, N. H., Cummins, R. P., & French, D. D. (2001) · Journal of Applied Ecology · doi:10.1046/j.1365-2664.2001.00653.x · Cited by 74 · see citing works
Setting seagrass depth, coverage, and light targets for the Indian River Lagoon system, Florida
Steward, J. S., Virnstein, R. W., Morris, L. J., & Lowe, E. F. (2005) · Estuaries · doi:10.1007/bf02696020 · Cited by 74 · see citing works
Relative influence of various water quality parameters on light attenuation in Indian River Lagoon
Christian, D., & Sheng, Y. P. (2003) · Estuarine Coastal and Shelf Science · doi:10.1016/s0272-7714(03)00002-7 · Cited by 72 · see citing works
Gobler, C. J., Koch, F., Kang, Y., Berry, D. L., Tang, Y. Z., Lasi, M., Walters, L., Hall, L., & Miller, J. D. (2013) · Harmful Algae · doi:10.1016/j.hal.2013.04.004 · Cited by 71 · see citing works
Meehan, A. J., Williams, R. J., & Watford, F. A. (2005) · Estuaries · doi:10.1007/bf02693927 · Cited by 43 · see citing works
The demise and recovery of seagrass in the northern Indian River Lagoon, Florida
Morris, L. J., & Virnstein, R. W. (2004) · Estuaries · doi:10.1007/bf02803418 · Cited by 40 · see citing works
The Value of Long‐Term Assessment of Restoration: Support from a Seagrass Investigation
Bell, S. S., Middlebrooks, M. L., & Hall, M. O. (2014) · Restoration Ecology · doi:10.1111/rec.12087 · Cited by 36 · see citing works
Multistate modeling of habitat dynamics: factors affecting Florida scrub transition probabilities
Breininger, D. R., Nichols, J. D., Duncan, B. W., Stolen, E. D., Carter, G. M., Hunt, D. K., & Drese, J. H. (2010) · Ecology · doi:10.1890/09-0964.1 · Cited by 33 · see citing works
Self-citationChoice, Z. D., Frazer, T. K., & Jacoby, C. A. (2014) · Marine Pollution Bulletin · doi:10.1016/j.marpolbul.2014.02.015 · Cited by 33 · see citing works
Rivera-Guzmán, N. E., Moreno‐Casasola, P., Ibarra-Obando, S. E., Sosa, V. J., & Herrera-Silveira, J. A. (2013) · Ocean & Coastal Management · doi:10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2013.10.007 · Cited by 32 · see citing works
Modeling approach to regime shifts of primary production in shallow coastal ecosystems
Zaldı́var, J. M., Bacelar, F. S., Dueri, S., Marinov, D. T., Viaroli, P., & Hernández-Garcı́a, E. (2009) · Ecological Modelling · doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2009.01.022 · Cited by 31 · see citing works
Vonk, J. A., Christianen, M. J. A., Stapel, J., & O’Brien, K. R. (2015) · Ecological Indicators · doi:10.1016/j.ecolind.2015.05.008 · Cited by 30 · see citing works
Setting load limits for nutrients and suspended solids based upon seagrass depth-limit targets
Steward, J. S., & Green, W. C. (2007) · Estuaries and Coasts · doi:10.1007/bf02841963 · Cited by 30 · see citing works
Modeling habitat dynamics accounting for possible misclassification
Véran, S., Kleiner, K. J., Choquet, R., Collazo, J. A., & Nichols, J. D. (2012) · Landscape Ecology · doi:10.1007/s10980-012-9746-z · Cited by 26 · see citing works
ESTIMATING SPECIES-SPECIFIC SURVIVAL AND MOVEMENT WHEN SPECIES IDENTIFICATION IS UNCERTAIN
Runge, J. P., Hines, J. E., & Nichols, J. D. (2007) · Ecology · doi:10.1890/0012-9658(2007)88[282:essamw]2.0.co;2 · Cited by 25 · see citing works
Moreno-Madriñán, M. J., Al‐Hamdan, M. Z., Rickman, D. L., & Ye, J. (2012) · Water Air & Soil Pollution · doi:10.1007/s11270-011-1007-2 · Cited by 21 · see citing works
Long-Term Trends in Seagrass Beds in the Mosquito Lagoon and Northern Banana River, Florida
Provancha, J. A., & Scheidt, D. M. (1999) · CRC Press eBooks · doi:10.1201/9781420074475-20 · Cited by 19 · see citing works
Seagrass responses to and recovery (?) from seven years of brown tide
Onuf, C. P. (1999) · Pacific Conservation Biology · doi:10.1071/pc000306 · Cited by 14 · see citing works
Estimating transition probabilities among Everglades wetland communities using multistate models
Hagan, A. H., Martin, J., & Kitchens, W. M. (2009) · Wetlands · doi:10.1672/09-014s.1 · Cited by 12 · see citing works
Reconstructing historical habitat data with predictive models
Zweig, C. L., & Kitchens, W. M. (2013) · Ecological Applications · doi:10.1890/13-0327.1 · Cited by 10 · see citing works
Flagged first, then by citations
6 of the 60 references couldn’t be matched to a known paper.
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Sea Level Rise and Implications for Low-Lying Islands, Coasts and Communities
(IPCC), I. P. O. C. C. (2022) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781009157964.012 · Cited by 861 · see citing works
Long‐term declines and recovery of meadow area across the world’s seagrass bioregions
Dunic, J. C., Brown, C. J., Connolly, R. M., Turschwell, M. P., & Côté, I. M. (2021) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.15684 · Cited by 522 · see citing works
Sea Level Rise and Implications for Low-Lying Islands, Coasts and Communities
(IPCC), I. P. O. C. C. (2022) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781009157964.006 · Cited by 387 · see citing works
Hydrogeological modelling for the watershed management of the Mar Menor coastal lagoon (Spain)
Alcolea, A., Contreras, S., Hunink, J. E., García-Aróstegui, J. L., & Jiménez‐Martínez, J. (2019) · The Science of The Total Environment · doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.01.375 · Cited by 73 · see citing works
Phli̇ps, E. J., Badylak, S., Nelson, N. G., Hall, L. M., Jacoby, C. A., Lasi, M. A., Lockwood, J. C., & Miller, J. D. (2021) · Frontiers in Marine Science · doi:10.3389/fmars.2021.730934 · Cited by 46 · see citing works
A human impact metric for coastal ecosystems with application to seagrass beds in Atlantic Canada
Murphy, G. E. P., Wong, M. C., & Lotze, H. K. (2019) · FACETS · doi:10.1139/facets-2018-0044 · Cited by 42 · see citing works
Effects of Lyngbya majuscula blooms on the seagrass Halodule wrightii and resident invertebrates
Tiling, K. A., & Proffitt, C. E. (2017) · Harmful Algae · doi:10.1016/j.hal.2016.11.015 · Cited by 39 · see citing works
Landsberg, J. H., Tabuchi, M., Rotstein, D. S., Subramaniam, K., Rodrigues, T. C. S., Waltzek, T. B., Stacy, N. I., Wilson, P. W., Kiryu, Y., Uzal, F. A., et al. (2022) · Frontiers in Marine Science · doi:10.3389/fmars.2022.841857 · Cited by 20 · see citing works
Brewton, R. A., & Lapointe, B. E. (2023) · Ecological Indicators · doi:10.1016/j.ecolind.2023.111035 · Cited by 13 · see citing works
Hanisak, M. D., & Davis, K. S. (2018) · SPIE Ocean Sensing and Monitoring · doi:10.1117/12.2304609 · Cited by 7 · see citing works
Sampling rare and elusive species: Florida east coast diamondback terrapin population abundance
Breininger, D. R., Stolen, E. D., Breininger, D. J., & Breininger, R. D. (2019) · Ecosphere · doi:10.1002/ecs2.2824 · Cited by 7 · see citing works
Self-citationScheidt, D. M., Provancha, J. A., Stolen, E. D., Breininger, D. R., Cancro, R. A., Lowers, R. H., Reyier, E. A., & Ahr, B. J. (2026) · Frontiers in Marine Science · doi:10.3389/fmars.2026.1725777 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Self-citationBellamy, P. W., & Cho, H. J. (2019) · IntechOpen eBooks · doi:10.5772/intechopen.87163 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Stolen, E. D., Breininger, D. R., Breininger, D. J., & Breininger, R. D. (2024) · Ecology and Evolution · doi:10.1002/ece3.11130 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Self-citationGuo, C., Xiong, J., Huang, J., Hou, M., Zhou, X., Chen, L., Ma, R., & Xiang, Y. (2026) · Journal of Oceanology and Limnology · doi:10.1007/s00343-026-5484-y · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Makolomakwa, M. (2018) · doi:10.51415/10321/3178 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
- Authors
- Breininger, D. R., Breininger, R. D., & Hall, C. R.
- Affiliations
- Kennedy Space Center (US)
- Florida Institute of Technology (US)
- Corresponding author
- Breininger, David R.
- ORCID
- Breininger, David R.
- Venue
- Conservation Biology
- Publisher
- Wiley
- Published
- 2016-10-07
- Volume
- 31
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 67-75
- ISSN
- 0888-8892 (ISSN-L)
- 1523-1739
- OpenAlex
- W2466619368
- Cited by
- 16
- References
- 60
- Citations by year
- 2026: 2 · 2024: 1 · 2023: 1 · 2022: 3 · 2021: 2 · 2019: 4 · 2018: 2 · 2017: 1
- FWCI
- 1.89
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Conservation Biology (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Oceanography › Marine and coastal plant biology
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecology › Coastal wetland ecosystem dynamics
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Oceanography › Marine Biology and Ecology Research
- Keywords
- seagrass dynamics, land use, water depth, algal blooms, seagrass die-off, Indian River Lagoon, multi-state models, state transition probabilities, detection probability, urbanization, watershed protection, seagrass mapping, lagoons
- MeSH terms
- Conservation of Natural Resources, Eutrophication, Florida, Water, Ecosystem
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review