Convergence and Modernisation
Abstract
In a country panel since 1960, the estimated annual convergence rate for GDP is 1.7%, conditional on time‐varying explanatory variables. With country fixed effects, the estimated convergence rate is misleadingly high. With data starting in 1870, country fixed effects are reasonable and the estimated convergence rate is 2.6%. Combining the two estimates suggests conditional convergence close to the ‘iron‐law’ rate of 2%. With post‐1960 data, estimation without country fixed effects reveals positive effects of GDP and schooling on law and order and democracy – consistent with the modernisation hypothesis. With post‐1870 data, estimation without or with country fixed effects indicates modernisation.
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In the literature on the causal effect of education on country-level outcomes, education is often instrumented by its lagged values.
“In the literature on the causal e/ect of education on country-level outcomes, this variable is often instrumented by its lagged values (e.g., Murtin, 2013; Barro and Lee (2015); Barro, 2015).”
From Fertility Transitions in Developing Countries: Convergence, Timing, and Causes (2019) · cites this paper as Barro, 2015
Cites
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Botev, J., Égert, B., & Jawadi, F. (2019) · International Economics · doi:10.1016/j.inteco.2019.06.004 · Cited by 153 · see citing works
Fertility Transitions in Developing Countries: Convergence, Timing, and Causes
Papagni, E. (2019) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.3522996 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
- Authors
- Barro, R. J.
- Affiliations
- Harvard University (US)
- Corresponding author
- Barro, Robert J.
- ORCID
- Barro, Robert J.
- Venue
- The Economic Journal
- Publisher
- Oxford University Press (OUP)
- Published
- 2015-06
- Volume
- 125
- Issue
- 585
- Pages
- 911-942
- ISSN
- 0013-0133 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W1700109461
- Cited by
- 323
- References
- 5
- Citations by year
- 2026: 16 · 2025: 31 · 2024: 22 · 2023: 31 · 2022: 24 · 2021: 40 · 2020: 38 · 2019: 34 · 2018: 36 · 2017: 31 · 2016: 16 · 2015: 3 · 2014: 1
- FWCI
- 69.22
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- The Economic Journal (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Economic Growth and Productivity
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Historical Economic and Social Studies
- Physical Sciences › Computer Science › Information Systems › Economic Growth and Development
- Keywords
- conditional convergence, country fixed effects, GDP growth, school education, law and order, democracy, cross-country panel data
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Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
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