Living standards and plague in L ondon, 1560–1665

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

In 1665, several large parishes appear to have given up recording individual burials, although parish clerks must have maintained running totals reported in weekly meetings to compile the London Bills.

“Similarly, in 1665 we can see how several large parishes appear to have given up recording individual burials, although parish clerks must have maintained running totals that they reported in their weekly meetings to compile the London Bills.”

May combine two claims.

The impact of plague on wealthier central parishes fell markedly over time: in 1563 they fared worse than the rest of London, but after 1603 their mortality became markedly better than poorer neighbours, and in 1665 their rise in mortality was around half that of the extra-mural parishes.

“The plagues of 1563, 1603, 1625, and 1665 appear of roughly equal magnitude, with deaths running at five to six times their usual rate, but the impact on wealthier central parishes falls markedly through time.”

• Also stated in: § III.1: Relative magnitudes of plagues · plain

  “The major trend apparent in figure 5 is the sharp fall in mortality in the central parishes.In 1563 these fared worse than the rest of London but, after 1603, their experience became markedly better than their poorer neighbours, with a rise in mortality in 1665 around half that of the extra-mural parishes.”

May combine two claims.

The plagues of 1563, 1603, 1625, and 1665 were of roughly equal magnitude, with deaths running at five to six times their usual rate.

“The plagues of 1563, 1603, 1625, and 1665 appear of roughly equal magnitude, with deaths running at five to six times their usual rate, but the impact on wealthier central parishes falls markedly through time.”

• Also stated in: § III.1: Relative magnitudes of plagues · plain

  “Looking at mortality across the intra-and extra-mural parishes, figure 5 shows that the plagues of 1563, 1603, 1625, and 1665 were of roughly equal deadliness, with deaths running from five to six times their usual level; while the plague of 1593 saw deaths running at 4.6 times normal, and in 1636 deaths were 2.3 times normal.”

May combine two claims.

For 1638, strong spatial autocorrelation is clear with a p-value for the test statistic of 0.00.

“For 1638, the strong spatial autocorrelation is clear with a p-value for the test statistic of 0.00.”

May combine two claims.

For 1563, the study's estimates are 21,000 deaths for the intra- and extra-mural parishes and 3,000 for the out-parishes excluding distant parishes.

“For 1563, Creighton gives Stow's estimates of 20,322 deaths for the intra-and extra-mural parishes, and 3,288 for 11 out-parishes; whereas our estimates are 21,000 for the intra-and extra-mural parishes; and for the out-parishes excluding distant parishes 3,000.”

• cites CreightonNot matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

May combine two claims.

During 1563 several central parishes were among the hardest hit, still the case though less markedly in 1603; by 1665 the most prosperous parishes stood out as an island of low mortality.

“During 1563 several central parishes were among the hardest hit, and this was still the case, although less markedly, in 1603.By 1665, however, the most prosperous parishes, based on the 1638 proportion of substantial households in figure 3, stand out as an island of low mortality.”

May combine two claims.

Before 1665, most parish totals match the London Bills totals fairly closely, although there are a few cases where the parish record is considerably lower.

“It can be seen that, before 1665, most parish totals match the London Bills totals fairly closely, although there are a few cases where the parish record is considerably lower.”

May combine two claims.

Although central parishes tend to be rich and peripheral ones poor, the spatial distribution of wealth is more diffuse in 1582 than in 1638.

“It can be seen that although the central parishes tend to be rich and the peripheral ones poor, as Slack argued, the spatial distribution of wealth is more diffuse in 1582 than in 1638.”

• cites SlackNot matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

May combine two claims.

A late autumn peak in mortality persisted in London after the supposed disappearance of plague: in more affluent central parishes until the early 1700s, and in surrounding extra-mural and out-parishes until the end of the 1720s.

“Looking at the seasonal pattern of mortality, we find that the characteristic autumn spike associated with plague continued into the early 1700s.”

• Also stated in: § Living standards and plague in · boosted

  “Instead we find a strong, but gradually diminishing, late autumn peak in the more affluent central parishes until the early 1700s, and in the surrounding extra-mural and out-parishes until the end of the 1720s.”

• AssumptionRests on an assumption: Rural England experienced a v-shaped pattern of seasonal mortality, with deaths peaking near the start of each year and reaching a minimum in early summer.

May combine two claims.

Deaths above the crisis threshold accounted for about one-fifth (18 per cent) of total mortality in 1560-1665, falling to 1.8 per cent after 1665.

“For the period 1560-1665, we find that deaths above the crisis threshold accounted for about one-fifth of total mortality: large plague epidemics were devastating but infrequent, and most Londoners died of other causes.”

• Also stated in: § IV: Mortality crises · plain

  “Between 1560 and 1665, these account for 18 per cent of deaths; and this falls to 1.8 per cent after 1665.”

May combine two claims.

The Moran statistic for no spatial autocorrelation has a p-value of 0.07 for 1582, consistent with the distribution of wealth within the walls having low spatial organization.

“The Moran statistic for no spatial autocorrelation (assigning equal weight to each of a parish's neighbours) has a p-value of 0.07 for 1582, consistent with the distribution of wealth within the walls having low spatial organization.”

May combine two claims.

The frequency and deadliness of smaller mortality crises fell markedly after 1590.

“While major plagues recur throughout our period, the frequency and deadliness of smaller crises falls markedly after 1590.”

• Also stated in: § IV: Mortality crises · plain

  “there is a marked reduction in the number of smaller mortality crises from the 1590s onwards: from 1563 to 1593, there are 10 years when crisis mortality exceeded 10 per cent of deaths, but from 1594 to 1665 there are only five years.”

May combine two claims.

The plague of 1593 saw deaths running at 4.6 times normal, and in 1636 deaths were 2.3 times normal.

“while the plague of 1593 saw deaths running at 4.6 times normal, and in 1636 deaths were 2.3 times normal.”

May combine two claims.

The ratio of children's deaths to baptisms remained fairly stable, rising in the 1640s and 1650s as the share of children being baptized fell.

“in the lower panel we can see that the ratio of children's deaths to baptisms at this time remains fairly stable, rising in the 1640s and 1650s as the share of children being baptized falls”

May combine two claims.

The interquartile range of birth to death ratios varied from 1.0-1.3 in affluent intra-mural parishes, 0.8-1.0 in poorer intra-mural parishes, 0.6-0.9 in extra-mural parishes, to 0.4-0.7 in out-parishes.

“However, this interquartile range varied from between 1.0 and 1.3 in the affluent intra-mural parishes, through a range of 0.8-1.0 in poorer intra-mural parishes and 0.6-0.9 in the extra-mural parishes, to 0.4-0.7 in the out-parishes.54”

• cites [54] 54. Southall, H. R. and Burton, N., 'GIS of the ancient parishes of England and Wales, 1500-1850' (2004), http://discover.ukdataservice.ac.uk/catalogue?sn=4828 (accessed on 19 Dec. 2014). sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

May combine two claims.

Comparing affluent central parishes in 1625 and 1665, there was a constant fall in births despite lower mortality in 1665, indicating population flight.

“Comparing the affluent central parishes in 1625 and 1665 in figure 14, we can see support for Slack's view, with a constant fall in births despite lower mortality in 1665, indicating population flight.”

May combine two claims.

The average annual deficit of deaths over births across the 130 parishes was 2,000 in the 1560s, 2,700 in the 1570s, 1,500 in the 1580s, 3,800 in the 1590s, 5,100 in the 1600s, 900 in the 1610s, 6,500 in the 1620s, and 1,900 in the 1630s.

“we estimate that the average annual deficit of deaths over births was 2,000 in the 1560s, 2,700 in the 1570s, 1,500 in the 1580s, 3,800 in the 1590s, 5,100 in the 1600s, 900 in the 1610s, 6,500 in the 1620s, and 1,900 in the 1630s.”

May combine two claims.

For London total, the interquartile range of birth to death ratios ran from 0.7 to 0.9; in the median year births were 80 per cent of deaths.

“Looking at the interquartile range of birth to death ratios, the total for London ran from 0.7 to 0.9: in the median year births were 80 per cent of deaths.”

May combine two claims.

For the inter-plague period 1605-24, the ratio of child deaths to baptisms was 0.45 in both rich and poor intra-mural parishes, and 0.55 in extra-mural and out-parishes.

“the ratio of child deaths to baptisms is 0.45 in both rich and poor intra-mural parishes, and 0.55 in extra-mural and out-parishes.”

May combine two claims.

For the inter-plague period 1565-92, intra-mural parishes recorded a child-death to baptism ratio of 0.45, while extra-mural and out-parishes together had a ratio of 0.67.

“For the sixteenth century, looking at the inter-plague period 1565-92, intra-mural parishes again record a child-death to baptism ratio of 0.45, but the extra-mural and out-parishes together have a ratio of 0.67.”

May combine two claims.

For 1578-82, Creighton's numbers vary between 3,200 and 3,600 and are almost identical to our estimates, except for 1581 where he reports 2,900 while our estimate is 3,700.

“For 1578-82 Creighton's numbers vary between 3,200 and 3,600 and are almost identical to our estimates, except for 1581 where he reports the implausibly low figure of 2,900 even though deaths are not elevated, while our estimate is 3,700.53”

• cites [53] 53. Slack, P., Poverty and policy in Tudor and Stuart England (Harlow, 1988).Not checked — no full text of the source

May combine two claims.

Crisis mortality first emerged in the poor northern suburbs, although this sometimes coincided with its emergence in eastern parishes.

“Looking at the spatial diffusion of plague, we find a consistent pattern of crisis mortality first emerging in the poor northern suburbs, although this sometimes coincided with its emergence in eastern parishes.”

May combine two claims.

The intra-mural parishes were overtaken by the extra-mural ones by the 1570s, and matched by the out-parishes by the early 1600s.

“with the intra-mural parishes being overtaken by the extra-mural ones by the 1570s, and matched by the out-parishes by the early 1600s.”

May combine two claims.

The ratio of births to deaths became more favourable in 1600-1639, with a median ratio of 1.1 for wealthier parishes within the walls, 0.9 for poorer intra- and extra-mural parishes, and 0.7 for out-parishes.

“The ratio of births to deaths becomes more favourable in the second half of the period, from 1600 to 1639, with a median ratio of 1.1 for the wealthier parishes within the walls, 0.9 for the poorer intra-and extra-mural parishes, and 0.7 for the out-parishes.”

May combine two claims.

In 1613-23, intra-mural parishes showed a summer minimum and winter peak, while extra-mural and out-parishes both showed strong autumn peaks.

“Looking at the first period, the intra-mural parishes show a summer minimum and winter peak, but the extra-mural and out-parishes both show strong autumn peaks”

May combine two claims.

The growth of Westminster only begins around 1600 and it is still small relative to the other districts by 1640.

“It can be seen that the growth of Westminster only begins around 1600 and that it is still small relative to the other districts by 1640.”

May combine two claims.

By 1710-29, the intra-mural area had reached the standard v-shaped mortality profile but the extra-mural and out-parishes continued to show marked autumn peaks.

“By 1710-29, the intra-mural area has reached the standard v-shaped mortality profile but the extra-mural and out-parishes continue to show marked autumn peaks.”

May combine two claims.

Spatially, London mortality rates were bowl-shaped, rising as one moves outwards, and extrapolating these spatial trends to large missing suburbs led to excessive estimates.

“Spatially, London mortality rates were bowl-shaped, rising as one moves outwards, and extrapolating these spatial trends to large missing suburbs led to excessive estimates.”

May combine two claims.

Plague mortality usually peaked in the autumn, and this is the pattern seen in London before 1665, even in years with few recorded plague deaths between major epidemics.

“By contrast, plague mortality usually peaked in the autumn, and this is the pattern we see in London before 1665, even in years with few recorded plague deaths between major epidemics.”

May combine two claims.

The rise in London's population was not continuous, with most growth occurring in the 1570s and 1580s, and the number of births appearing static during the 1560s and 1590s.

“However, our results suggest that this rise was not continuous, with most growth occurring in the 1570s and 1580s, with the number of births appearing static during the 1560s and 1590s.53”

• cites [53] 53. Slack, P., Poverty and policy in Tudor and Stuart England (Harlow, 1988).Not checked — no full text of the source

May combine two claims.

The study has records for 87 intra-mural parishes, although in 10 cases there are fewer than 10 years of observations.

“We have records for 87 intra-mural parishes, although in 10 cases there are fewer than 10 years of observations.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

Plague deaths suffer from severe under-registration.

“However, as noted above, plague deaths suffer from severe under-registration.”

Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.

Slack found that the same parishes tended to be among the richest or poorest over two centuries, and concluded that there was a fairly constant social geography of rich central parishes surrounded by a poorer periphery.

“Slack found that the same parishes tended to be among the richest or poorest over two centuries, and concluded that there was a fairly constant social geography of rich central parishes surrounded by a poorer periphery.”

• cites SlackNot matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

May combine two claims.

By region, the sample parishes account for 66 per cent of 1636 deaths in the intra-mural parishes, 77 per cent in the extra-mural parishes, and 70 per cent in the out-parishes.

“By region, our parishes account for 66 per cent of 1636 deaths in the intra-mural parishes, 77 per cent in the extra-mural parishes, and 70 per cent in the out-parishes.”

Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.

The specific surveillance algorithm used is due to Farrington et al., implemented by Höhle.

“The specific algorithm we use is due to Farrington et al., implemented by Höhle.”

• cites Farrington et al.Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

• cites HöhleNot matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

The view that the social geography of London was relatively fixed during the sixteenth and seventeenth centuries is shared by Boulton.

“This view that the social geography of London was relatively fixed during the sixteenth and seventeenth centuries is shared by Boulton.”

• cites BoultonNot matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

The affluent were strongly concentrated in a central belt of intra-mural parishes, with prosperity declining as one approached the city wall and river.

“Finlay's data are reproduced in the second panel of figure 3, which shows how the affluent were strongly concentrated in a central belt of intra-mural parishes, with prosperity declining as one approached the city wall and river.”

• cites FinlayNot matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

May combine two claims.

Using downloads of individual records from Ancestry.com creates three sources of potential error: imperfect transcription, failure to download all relevant records, or failure to remove duplicated entries.

“This creates three sources of potential error: the registers may have been transcribed imperfectly; we may have failed to download all relevant records; or we may have failed to remove all duplicated entries that frequently arise from including bishops' transcripts of the original registers.”

May combine two claims.

The missing parishes are generally smaller, recording fewer than 100 deaths in 1660, and can be fairly reliably interpolated from records of surrounding parishes.

“However, the missing parishes are generally the smaller ones, recording fewer than 100 deaths in 1660, and we will see below that they can be fairly reliably interpolated from records of surrounding parishes.”

May combine two claims.

Epidemic outbreaks of typhus and plague can be distinguished by the fact that typhus rarely kills children, whereas plague kills both adults and children.

“Epidemic outbreaks of the two diseases can be distinguished by the fact that typhus rarely kills children, whereas plague kills both adults and children”

• cites MurchisonNot matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

May combine two claims.

The spatial cross-section of London mortality is strongly Malthusian, with wealthier households replacing themselves outside plague years while poor districts suffered a marked excess of deaths over births even between major plagues.

“In other words, the spatial cross-section of London mortality is strongly Malthusian, with wealthier households replacing themselves (outside plague years, to which affluent areas became less vulnerable through time) while poor districts suffered a marked excess of deaths over births even between major plagues.”

May combine two claims.

Large plague epidemics were devastating but infrequent, and most Londoners died of causes other than plague.

“large plague epidemics were devastating but infrequent, and most Londoners died of other causes.”

May combine two claims.

The burial register data rarely give cause of death, unlike the London Bills, which list the number of plague deaths by parish.

“The burial register data rarely give cause of death, unlike the London Bills, which list the number of plague deaths by parish.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

Allowing the Poisson parameter to show a seasonal trend did not change the results in any way.

“Allowing the Poisson parameter to show a seasonal trend of the sort outlined in section VI did not change the results in any way.”

Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

Slack argues that flight among the affluent increased as the seventeenth century progressed.

“Slack argues that flight among the affluent increased as the seventeenth century progressed.56”

• cites [56] 56. Sutherland, I., 'When was the Great Plague? Mortality in London, 1563 to 1665', in D. V. Glass and R. Revelle, eds., Population and social change (1972), pp. 287-320.Not checked yet

  Not checked in the free run.

May combine two claims.

Murchison notes that the symptoms of typhus and plague are almost identical, with the characteristic petechial spots of typhus corresponding to plague tokens, and that swift, agonizing death and swollen lymph glands in typhus are not uncommon.

“In the standard Victorian reference on typhus, Charles Murchison notes that the symptoms of typhus and plague are almost identical, with the characteristic petechial spots (caused by intradermal bleeding) of typhus (hence its name of spotted or purple fever) corresponding to plague tokens (the 'ring of roses'); while swift, agonizing death and the appearance of swollen lymph glands or buboes in ty”

• cites MurchisonNot matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

May combine two claims.

Kelly and Ó Gráda show that England outside London saw the disappearance of the positive check during the early seventeenth century, while London after 1665 showed a continued strong positive check until the early eighteenth century.

“Kelly and Ó Gráda show that England, outside London, saw the disappearance of the positive check during the early seventeenth century, while London after 1665 showed a con-”

• Also stated in: § VIII: Positive checks · boosted

  “tinued strong positive check until the early eighteenth century.”

• cites [57] 57. Taddy, M. A., Gramacy, R. B., and Polson, N. G., 'Dynamic trees for learning and design', Journal of the American Statistical Association, 106, 493 (2011), pp. 109-23. sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

May combine two claims.

Boulton finds a slight increase for craftsmen after 1593 and 1603, but little overall impact on wages.

“Boulton finds a slight increase for craftsmen after 1593 and 1603; but little overall impact on wages.64”

• cites [64]Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

Our estimated deficits match fairly well with those for London provided by Wrigley and Schofield.

“It is notable that our estimated deficits match fairly well with those for London provided by Wrigley and Schofield.55”

• cites [55] 55. Spence, C., London in the 1690s: a social atlas (2000).Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

May combine two claims.

The spatial gradient of replacement ratios across London is markedly Malthusian, with prosperous families usually able to reproduce themselves outside plague years, while households in poorer suburbs usually suffered a sharp excess of deaths over births even in intervals between major plagues.

“In other words, the spatial gradient of replacement ratios across London is markedly Malthusian, with prosperous families usually able to reproduce themselves, outside plague years (whose impact, as we have seen, fell markedly in wealthier areas), while households in the poorer suburbs usually suffered a sharp excess of deaths over births, even in intervals between major plagues.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

The 1902 Encyclopaedia Britannica notes that in autopsies the appearances resemble those of typhus, except for the special affection of the lymphatic glands.

“Under 'Plague-Morbid Anatomy', the 1902 Encyclopaedia Britannica notes that in autopsies 'The appearances are those of death from an acute infective disease, and resemble those of typhus, except for the special affection of the lymphatic glands'.”

• cites Encyclopaedia Britannica 1902Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

May combine two claims.

Alternative spatial methods produced results close to known totals after 1604 but generated serious overestimates for 1578-1582.

“When predicting missing values, each produced results close to known totals after 1604, but generated serious overestimates for 1578-1582.”

• cites WoodNot matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

• cites Taddy, Gramacy, and PolsonNot matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

As Graunt noted, births recovered to pre-plague levels within two years.

“As Graunt noted, births, which serve as a measure of population, recovered to pre-plague levels within two years (see figure 12).65”

• cites [65]Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

May combine two claims.

Unlike deaths, there is no complete set of parish totals for any year; the London Bills only record aggregates over large groups of parishes.

“A complication in imputing births is that, unlike deaths, we have no complete set of parish totals for any year: the London Bills only record aggregates over large groups of parishes.”

May combine two claims.

The immediate response of mortality to living standards may reflect a large population surviving close to the edge of biological subsistence, or immigration of the rural poor after bad harvests.

“This immediate response of mortality to living standards may reflect a large population surviving close to the edge of biological subsistence, or immigration of the rural poor after bad harvests”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

Typhus in England showed little seasonality, with epidemics occurring at any time of the year, with a slight prevalence in colder months.

“Typhus in England, by contrast, showed little seasonality, with epidemics occurring at any time of the year, with a slight prevalence in colder months.51”

• cites [51] 51. Slack, P., 'The disappearance of the plague: an alternative view', Economic History Review, 2nd ser., XXXIV (1981), pp. 469-76. sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

May combine two claims.

The benefits of the mortality improvement in the early seventeenth century went disproportionately to adults or children constituted a larger share of the population.

“This suggests that the benefits of the mortality improvement in the early seventeenth century went disproportionately to adults or that children constituted a larger share of the population.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

For rural England at this time, mortality peaked in March and reached a minimum in July.

“For rural England at this time, Wrigley and Schofield show that mortality peaked in March and reached a minimum in July.50”

• cites [50] 50. Sharlin, A., 'Natural decrease in early modern cities: a rejoinder', Past and Present, 92 (1981), pp. 175-80. sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

These rates are similar to estimates for four parishes by Finlay.

“These rates are similar to estimates for four parishes by Finlay.48”

• cites [48] 48. Razzell, P., 'Infant mortality in London, 1538-1850: a methodological study', Local Population Studies, 87 (2011), pp. 45-64. sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

May combine two claims.

Ratios of baptisms to burials are roughly similar in every parish except St James Clerkenwell, where recorded baptisms run consistently around one-third of burials.

“Another reliability check comes from comparing ratios of baptisms to burials, which are roughly similar in every parish with the exception of St James Clerkenwell, where recorded baptisms run consistently around one-third of burials.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

The accuracy of baptismal totals can be assessed by comparing them with annual totals recorded by Graunt.

“However, we can still assess the accuracy of our baptismal totals by comparing them with annual totals recorded by Graunt.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

Landers and Mouzas note the autumn peak in mortality after 1665, which they attribute to 'convulsions', smallpox, and fever, but they do not note its similarity to earlier intra-plague periods.

“Landers and Mouzas, 'Burial seasonality', note the autumn peak in mortality after 1665, which they attribute to 'convulsions', smallpox, and fever (p.66), but they do not note its similarity to earlier intra-plague periods.”

• cites Landers and Mouzas, 'Burial seasonality'Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

These may possibly be combined totals for the two plague years of 1592 and 1593, but the correlation with individual parish records in our sample is low.

“These may possibly be combined totals for the two plague years of 1592 and 1593, but the correlation with individual parish records in our sample is low.”