A reassessment of global bioenergy potential in 2050
Open accessAbstract
Many climate change mitigation strategies rely on strong projected growth in biomass energy, supported by literature estimating high future bioenergy potential. However, expectations to 2050 are highly divergent. Examining the most widely cited studies finds that some assumptions in these models are inconsistent with the best available evidence. By identifying literature‐supported, up‐to‐date assumptions for parameters including crop yields, land availability, and costs, we revise upper‐end estimates of potential biomass availability from dedicated energy crops. Even allowing for the conversion of virtually all ‘unused’ grassland and savannah, we find that the maximum plausible limit to sustainable energy crop production in 2050 would be 40–110 EJ yr −1 . Combined with forestry, crop residues, and wastes, the maximum limit to long‐term total biomass availability is 60–120 EJ yr −1 in primary energy. After accounting for current trends in bioenergy allocation and conversion losses, we estimate maximum potentials of 10–20 EJ yr −1 of biofuel, 20–40 EJ yr −1 of electricity, and 10–30 EJ yr −1 of heating in 2050. These findings suggest that many technical projections and aspirational goals for future bioenergy use could be difficult or impossible to achieve sustainably.
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Considerable uncertainty surrounds the total achievable potential for sustainable bioenergy production, driven by biomass availability, logistical complexities, feedstock quality variability, conversion technology limitations, land use impacts, water consumption, and economic viability.
“However, considerable uncertainty surrounds the total achievable potential for sustainable bioenergy production, largely driven by factors including biomass availability, logistical complexities, feedstock quality variability, conversion technology limitations, land use impacts, water consumption, and overall economic viability [72,250,251].”
From Biofuels, E-Fuels, and Waste-Derived Fuels: Advances, Challenges, and Future Directions (2025) · cites this paper as [250]
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- Authors
- Searle, S., & Malins, C.
- Affiliations
- International Council on Clean Transportation (DE)
- Corresponding author
- Searle, Stephanie
- Venue
- GCB Bioenergy
- Publisher
- Wiley
- Published
- 2014-02-08
- Volume
- 7
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 328-336
- ISSN
- 1757-1693 (ISSN-L)
- 1757-1707
- OpenAlex
- W2109946329
- Cited by
- 196
- References
- 4
- Citations by year
- 2026: 20 · 2025: 14 · 2024: 18 · 2023: 19 · 2022: 26 · 2021: 23 · 2020: 25 · 2019: 15 · 2018: 8 · 2017: 12 · 2016: 7 · 2015: 7 · 2014: 2
- FWCI
- 18.59
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- GCB Bioenergy (publishedVersion)
- Funders
- ClimateWorks
- Topics
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Agronomy and Crop Science › Bioenergy crop production and management
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › General Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Bioeconomy and Sustainability Development
- Physical Sciences › Engineering › Mechanics of Materials › Forest Biomass Utilization and Management
- Keywords
- bioenergy potential, biomass availability, dedicated energy crops, crop yield, land availability, conversion loss, biofuels, bioelectricity, forest residues, crop residues, climate change mitigation, sustainability limits
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