Effects of temperature, humidity, and diurnal temperature range on influenza incidence in a temperate region

Abstract

Background: The effect of temperature and humidity on the incidence of influenza may differ by climate region. In addition, the effect of diurnal temperature range on influenza incidence is unclear, according to previous study findings. Objectives: The aim of this study was to analyze the effects of temperature, humidity, and diurnal temperature range on the incidence of influenza in Seoul, Republic of Korea, which is located in a temperate region. Methods: We used Korean National Health insurance data to assess the weekly influenza incidence between 2010 and 2016, and used meteorological data from Seoul. To investigate the effect of temperature, relative humidity, and diurnal temperature range levels on influenza incidence, we used a distributed lag non‐linear model. Results: The risk of influenza incidence was significantly increased with low daily temperatures of 0‐5°C and low (30%–40%) or high (70%) relative humidity. We found a positive significant association between diurnal temperature range and influenza incidence in this study. Conclusions: Influenza incidence increased with low temperature and low/high humidity in a temperate region. Influenza incidence also increased with high diurnal temperature range, after considering temperature and humidity.