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Predicting prey population dynamics from kill rate, predation rate and predator-prey ratios in three wolf-ungulate systems: Predation rate and kill rate
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1. Predation rate (PR) and kill rate are both fundamental statistics for understanding predation. However, relatively little is known about how these statistics relate to one another and how they relate to prey population dynamics. We assess these relationships across three systems where wolf-prey dynamics have been observed for 41 years (Isle Royale), 19 years (Banff) and 12 years (Yellowstone). 2. To provide context for this empirical assessment, we developed theoretical predictions of the relationship between kill rate and PR under a broad range of predator-prey models including predator-dependent, ratio-dependent and Lotka-Volterra dynamics. 3. The theoretical predictions indicate that kill rate can be related to PR in a variety of diverse ways (e.g. positive, negative, unrelated) that depend on the nature of predator-prey dynamics (e.g. structure of the functional response). These simulations also suggested that the ratio of predator-to-prey is a good predictor of prey growth rate. That result motivated us to assess the empirical relationship between the ratio and prey growth rate for each of the three study sites. 4. The empirical relationships indicate that PR is not well predicted by kill rate, but is better predicted by the ratio of predator-to-prey. Kill rate is also a poor predictor of prey growth rate. However, PR and ratio of predator-to-prey each explained significant portions of variation in prey growth rate for two of the three study sites. 5. Our analyses offer two general insights. First, Isle Royale, Banff and Yellowstone are similar insomuch as they all include wolves preying on large ungulates. However, they also differ in species diversity of predator and prey communities, exploitation by humans and the role of dispersal. Even with the benefit of our analysis, it remains difficult to judge whether to be more impressed by the similarities or differences. This difficulty nicely illustrates a fundamental property of ecological communities. Second, kill rate is the primary statistic for many traditional models of predation. However, our work suggests that kill rate and PR are similarly important for understanding why predation is such a complex process.
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Wolf predation rates below 12% correspond with strong population growth for the Isle Royale moose population; for years with such rates, mean moose growth was 0.06 ± 0.02 SE and positive in 79% of years.
“For further context, predation rates <12% correspond with strong population growth for the IRNP moose population.More specifically, for years of predation rate <12% (n = 33), mean growth rate of the IRNP moose population was 0.06 ± 0.02 (SE) and growth was positive in 79% of those years (see Vucetich et al. 2011, figure 4D,E).”
From Trophic Cascades in a Multicausal World: Isle Royale and Yellowstone (2014) · cites this paper as Vucetich et al. 2011
The Results (page unavailable) report that predation rate was a good predictor of Isle Royale prey growth rate (Fig. 4d), supporting the general association. Our copy does not state the <12% cutoff, the mean growth rate of 0.06 ± 0.02 SE, or positive growth in 79% of the 33 years; searches for those figures did not find them. (LLM, conf=0.85)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredEstimates from 1971-2014 show that wolf predation rate is a strong predictor of Isle Royale moose population growth rate, with R2 = 0.67 and p < 10^-3, and an estimated slope of -1.8 ± 0.21 SE.
“First, estimates collected during 1971-2014 indicate that wolf predation rate (the proportion of prey killed annually by predation) is a strong predictor of growth rate for the moose population (R 2 = 0.67, p < 10 -3 ) (Vucetich et al. 2011).The estimated slope of this relationship is -1.8 ( ±0.21 SE).”
From Trophic Cascades in a Multicausal World: Isle Royale and Yellowstone (2014) · cites this paper as Vucetich et al. 2011
The Results report that predation rate predicted Isle Royale prey growth rate with R² = 0.67, but give P < 0.01 rather than P < 0.001. The Isle Royale methods describe observations through 2011, not 2014, and the passages found do not report a slope of −1.8 ± 0.21 SE. Page numbers were unavailable in our copy. (LLM, conf=0.89)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredPredation rate is the product of per capita kill rate and predator-to-prey ratio.
“Predation rate is the product of the per capita kill rate and predator-to-prey ratio (Vucetich et al. 2011).”
From Trophic Cascades in a Multicausal World: Isle Royale and Yellowstone (2014) · cites this paper as Vucetich et al. 2011
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Citations
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Middleton, A. D., Kauffman, M. J., McWhirter, D. E., Jimenez, M. D., Cook, R. C., Cook, J. G., Albeke, S. E., Sawyer, H., & White, P. J. (2013) · Ecology Letters · doi:10.1111/ele.12133 · Cited by 181
Seasonal patterns of predation for gray wolves in the multi-prey system of Yellowstone National Park
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Self-citationTrophic Cascades in a Multicausal World: Isle Royale and Yellowstone
Peterson, R. O., Vucetich, J. A., Bump, J. M., & Smith, D. W. (2014) · Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics · doi:10.1146/annurev-ecolsys-120213-091634 · Cited by 150
Self-citationChristianson, D., & Creel, S. (2014) · PLOS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0102330 · Cited by 49
“predation on elk [20,21], and (2) low reproductive value of wolf-”
BackgroundMethodMontgomery, R. A., Vucetich, J. A., Roloff, G. J., Bump, J. K., & Peterson, R. O. (2014) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0091414 · Cited by 25
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Metadata
- Authors
- Vucetich, J. A., Hebblewhite, M., Smith, D. W., & Peterson, R. O.
- Affiliations
- Michigan Technological University (US)
- University of Montana (US)
- Yellowstone National Park (US)
- Corresponding author
- Vucetich, John A.
- Venue
- Journal of Animal Ecology
- Publisher
- Wiley
- Published
- 2011-05-13
- Volume
- 80
- Issue
- 6
- Pages
- 1236-1245
- ISSN
- 0021-8790 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2129605695
- Cited by
- 134
- References
- 4
- Citations by year
- 2026: 2 · 2025: 6 · 2024: 13 · 2023: 5 · 2022: 12 · 2021: 14 · 2020: 15 · 2019: 6 · 2018: 8 · 2017: 10 · 2016: 5 · 2015: 4 · 2014: 11 · 2013: 11 · 2012: 11
- FWCI
- 9.59
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- Journal of Animal Ecology (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Digital Commons - Michigan Tech (Michigan Technological University) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- National Science Foundation (0424562)
- Parks Canada
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecology › Wildlife Ecology and Conservation
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Applied Mathematics › Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecology › Animal Ecology and Behavior Studies
- Keywords
- predation rate, kill rate, predator-prey ratio, prey population dynamics, Isle Royale, Banff, Yellowstone National Park, predator-prey model, Lotka-Volterra dynamics, functional response, prey growth rate, large carnivores, ungulates
- MeSH terms
- Alberta, Animals, Michigan, Models, Biological, Population Dynamics, Predatory Behavior, Ruminants, Wyoming, Wolves, Food Chain, Biodiversity
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