Interpreting trends in cancer patient survival
Abstract
Data on cancer patient survival are an invaluable tool in the evaluation of therapeutic progress against cancer as well as other lethal diseases. As with all quantitative information routinely used in evidence‐based clinical management – including diagnostic tests, prognostic markers and comparisons of therapeutic interventions – data on patient survival require evaluation based on an understanding of the underlying statistical methodology, methods of data collection and classification, and, most notably, clinical and biologic insight. This article contains an introduction to the methods used for estimating cancer patient survival, including cause‐specific survival, relative survival and period analysis. The methods, and their interpretation, are illustrated through presentation of trends in incidence, mortality and patient survival for a range of different cancers. Our aim was to lay out the strengths and limitations of survival analysis as a tool in the evaluation of progress in the diagnosis and treatment of cancer.
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Five-year survival has risen for many cancers since the 1950s, yet it is still a common benchmark and does not directly equal the share of patients cured.
“Five-year survival has increased for many cancers since the 1950s, but it remains a widely used benchmark, even though it cannot be directly interpreted as the proportion of patients who are cured.45”
Clinicians have used five-year survival as a measure of cancer treatment effectiveness for over six decades.
“Five-year survival has been recognised by clinicians as an index of the effectiveness of the treatment of cancer for more than 60 years.”
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- Authors
- DICKMAN, P. W., & ADAMI, H. ‐.
- Affiliations
- Harvard University (US)
- Corresponding author
- DICKMAN, P. W.
- Venue
- Journal of Internal Medicine
- Publisher
- Wiley
- Published
- 2006-07-14
- Volume
- 260
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 103-117
- ISSN
- 0954-6820 (ISSN-L)
- 1365-2796
- OpenAlex
- W1964915268
- Cited by
- 508
- References
- 34
- Citations by year
- 2026: 4 · 2025: 9 · 2024: 13 · 2023: 14 · 2022: 16 · 2021: 18 · 2020: 20 · 2019: 16 · 2018: 21 · 2017: 15 · 2016: 16 · 2015: 16 · 2014: 31 · 2013: 135 · 2012: 55
- FWCI
- 1.07
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Journal of Internal Medicine (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Oncology › Global Cancer Incidence and Screening
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Statistics and Probability › Statistical Methods in Epidemiology
- Social Sciences › Demography › Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management
- Keywords
- cancer survival, survival trends, cause-specific survival, relative survival, period analysis, cancer incidence, cancer mortality, cancer treatment evaluation
- MeSH terms
- Data Collection, Data Interpretation, Statistical, Humans, Mass Screening, Neoplasms, Incidence, Survival Analysis, Treatment Outcome
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