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Multilateral Versus Unilateral Sanctions Reconsidered: A Test Using New Data
Abstract
Policymakers frequently argue that multilateral sanctions are more likely to induce a target state to alter its behavior than are unilateral sanctions. Repeated empirical studies using the familiar Hufbauer, Schott, and Elliot data set demonstrate that unilateral sanctions “work” more often than multilateral sanctions, however. In this study, we subject three theoretical explanations for this counterintuitive finding to additional empirical testing utilizing the new Threat and Imposition of Economic Sanctions (TIES) data. Somewhat surprisingly, the analyses using these new data support the intuition of policymakers; that is, multilateral sanctions do appear to work more frequently than do unilateral sanctions. Our results do support one theoretical argument, based on spatial models, that we test. This explanation holds that whether multilateral or unilateral sanctions are more effective depends on the number of issues at stake and on whether an international institution is involved. Our analyses provide support for these hypotheses.
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“Relatedly, multilateral sanctions, especially when imposed under the auspices of an international organization, increase target costs relatively more than unilateral sanctions (Martin 1992; Bapat and Morgan 2009; Early 2021).”
From Economic Sanctions: Evolution, Consequences, and Challenges (2023) · cites this paper as Bapat and Morgan 2009
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“This is consistent with previous empirical research suggesting that multilateral sanctions are more likely to be effective than unilateral sanctions (Bapat and Morgan, 2009).”
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Self-citationEconomic Sanctions: Evolution, Consequences, and Challenges
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“Bapat and Morgan 2009.”
Self-citationCoercion, Information, and the Success of Sanction Threats
Whang, T., McLean, E. V., & Kuberski, D. W. (2012) · American Journal of Political Science · doi:10.1111/j.1540-5907.2012.00629.x · Cited by 131
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Drury, A., & Peksen, D. (2014) · European Journal of International Relations · doi:10.1177/1354066112448200 · Cited by 110
“See, for example, Kaempfer and Lowenberg (1988), Martin (1992), Pape (1997), Drury (1998), Drezner (1999, 2003), Ang and Peksen (2007), Hufbauer et al. (2007), Bapat and Morgan (2009), and Peterson (forthcoming).”
BackgroundProfiting from Sanctions: Economic Coercion and US Foreign Direct Investment in Third-Party States
Barry, C. M., & Kleinberg, K. B. (2015) · International Organization · doi:10.1017/s002081831500017x · Cited by 125
“See, most recently, Bapat and Morgan 2009; and McLean and Whang 2010. economic actors are not the only potential threat to a government’s sanctions efforts.”
BackgroundTHE EFFECTS OF INTERNATIONAL SANCTIONS ON GREEN INNOVATIONS
Fu, Q., Gong, Q., Zhao, X., et al. (2022) · Technological and Economic Development of Economy · doi:10.3846/tede.2022.17782 · Cited by 112
“Kaempfer and Lowenberg (1999), Bapat and Morgan (2009), and Kazerooni et al. (2015) classified international sanctions into the following categories – unilateral, plurilateral, and multilateral – and analyzed the different impacts of these sanctions on several fields. It can be proved that multilateral sanctions often…”
BackgroundResultInfluentialHow Sanctions Affect Public Opinion in Target Countries: Experimental Evidence From Israel
Grossman, G., Manekin, D. S., & Margalit, Y. M. (2018) · Comparative Political Studies · doi:10.1177/0010414018774370 · Cited by 107
Reciprocity and the structural determinants of the international sanctions network
Cranmer, S., Heinrich, T., & Desmarais, B. A. (2013) · Social Networks · doi:10.1016/j.socnet.2013.01.001 · Cited by 104
“If such coordination is at play, as many studies have assumed (Martin, 1993; Drezner, 2000; Bapat and Morgan, 2009), then the sanctions by each of the senders against the target are not independent: the lead sender’s sanctioning efforts rendered the other sanctions more likely.”
BackgroundInfluentialEarly, B. R. (2011) · Foreign Policy Analysis · doi:10.1111/j.1743-8594.2011.00143.x · Cited by 101
FDI and sanctions: An empirical analysis of short- and long-run effects
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The Benefits and Burdens of Nuclear Latency
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Chen, Y. E., Fu, Q., Zhao, X., et al. (2019) · Economic Modelling · doi:10.1016/j.econmod.2019.07.022 · Cited by 85
Grauvogel, J., Licht, A. A., & von Soest, C. (2017) · International Studies Quarterly · doi:10.1093/isq/sqw044 · Cited by 91
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“Bapat and Kwon (2015) model the enforcement problem associated with a sanction policy that bans firms from the foreign power trading with the target country.”
Sending a Message: The Reputation Effect of US Sanction Threat Behavior1
Peterson, T. M. (2012) · International Studies Quarterly · doi:10.1111/isqu.12017 · Cited by 70
The impact of financial sanctions: The case of Iran
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Why Nuclear Energy Programs Rarely Lead to Proliferation
Miller, N. L. (2017) · International Security · doi:10.1162/isec_a_00293 · Cited by 61
The impact of international sanctions on energy security
Wen, J., Zhao, X., Wang, Q., et al. (2020) · Energy & Environment · doi:10.1177/0958305x20937686 · Cited by 56
“The main reason is that the United States and the European Union usually have conflicts of interest in imposing sanctions on target countries jointly, making such sanctions ineffective.(78) For example, Sun(79) indicated that in the new round of economic sanctions against Russia by the U.”
BackgroundThe Political Economy of Weak Treaties
Battaglini, M., & Bård Harstad, Z. (2019) · Journal of Political Economy · doi:10.1086/704610 · Cited by 59
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Powell, J. M., Lasley, T. C., & Schiel, R. E. (2016) · Studies in Comparative International Development · doi:10.1007/s12116-015-9210-6 · Cited by 51
“In this section we briefly discuss how international organizations, especially regional organizations like the AU, are expected to be more credible and capable sanctioners than other actors (Drezner, 2000; Bapat and Morgan, 2009).”
BackgroundDomestic Institutional Constraints, Veto Players, and Sanction Effectiveness
Jeong, J. M., & Peksen, D. (2017) · Journal of Conflict Resolution · doi:10.1177/0022002717728105 · Cited by 52
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Early, B. R., & Schulzke, M. (2018) · International Studies Review · doi:10.1093/isr/viy012 · Cited by 45
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“This logic and several empirical studies now indicate that sanctions, and particularly the threat of sanctions, may be a far more effective tool of coercion than previously believed (Allen, 2005; Bapat and Morgan, 2009; Early, 2011; McLean and Whang, 2010; Whang et al., 2013).”
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“In addition, scholars note a higher effectiveness of economic sanctions introduced through international organizations (IOs) (Bapat and Morgan 2009), which are very frequently multilateral, too (Morgan, Bapat, and Kobayashi 2014).”
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Beaumier, G., & Cartwright, M. (2023) · International Studies Quarterly · doi:10.1093/isq/sqae003 · Cited by 50
Either with us or against us? Third-country alignment with EU sanctions against Russia/Ukraine
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“Opinions are split on whether international cooperation helps or hinders target-oriented effectiveness (see Portela 2010, 44, 98–99; Drezner 2000, 73; Miers and Morgan 2002; Hufbauer et al 1990, 95ff; Bapat and Morgan 2009, 1075).”
BackgroundEconomic sanctions and official ethnic discrimination in target countries, 1950–2003
Peksen, D. (2014) · Defence and Peace Economics · doi:10.1080/10242694.2014.920219 · Cited by 37
“2See Pape (1997), Drury (1998), Drezner (1999), Lektzian and Souva (2007), Hufbauer et al. (2007), Ang and Peksen (2007), Bapat and Morgan (2009), Mclean and Whang (2010), Early (2011). awareness of the humanitarian effects of sanctions in Iraq, Haiti, and the former Yugoslavia in the 1990s,…”
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Borszik, O. (2015) · Contemporary Politics · doi:10.1080/13569775.2015.1112951 · Cited by 32
“In this way, they have analysed the effectiveness of unilateral and multilateral sanctions (Bapat & Morgan, 2009) and of targeted and comprehensive sanctions (Drezner, 2011; Hufbauer et al., 2007, Lektzian & Souva, 2007; Peksen & Drury, 2010; Portela, 2014), as well as the importance of different…”
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“From a theoretical perspective, the pathway is plausible as we know from scholarly research on sanctions that multilateral coalitions of restrictive measures make the latter more likely prone to success (Bapat & Morgan, 2009; Early & Spice, 2015; Weber & Schneider, 2020).”
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“Although I acknowledge the strategic importance of sanction costs (Baldwin, 1985: 107) that could potentially signal one’s resolve and convince one’s counterpart to acquiesce (Langlois and Langlois, 2010), I do not consider them in my model.”
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“Further, sanctions are believed to more successful since the power reserves endowed by the sender will likely withstand more extended periods, as well as harsher economic and political conditions compared to target states with weak economies (Bapat & Morgan, 2009).”
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“Previous research shows that multilateral sanctions are more likely to succeed than unilateral sanctions (Bapat et al., 2013; Bapat & Clifton Morgan, 2009), and sanctions are more likely to achieve intended goals when private actors (Morgan & Bapat, 2003; Shambaugh, 1999) and the target’s major…”
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“The existing literature notes that sanctions over salient issues are more likely to draw target compliance (Ang and Dursun 2007; Bapat and Clifton Morgan 2009; Bapat and Kwon 2015; Jeong and Peksen 2019).”
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Felbermayr, G. J., Morgan, T., Syropoulos, C. A., & Yotov, Y. V. (2025) · Annual Review of Economics · doi:10.1146/annurev-economics-081623-020909 · Cited by 26
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“When using the TIES dataset, Bapat & Morgan (2009) found that, in contrast to the results that were produced with the HSE dataset, multilateral sanctions are more effective than unilateral sanctions.”
ResultTrade Composition and Acquiescence to Sanction Threats
Akoto, W., Peterson, T. M., & Thies, C. G. (2019) · Political Research Quarterly · doi:10.1177/1065912919837608 · Cited by 15
When Do Imposed Sanctions Work? The Role of Target Regime Type
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“Furthermore, Bapat and Morgan (2009), via an empirical approach, argue that multilateral sanctions seem to have a greater probability of success than unilateral ones.”
BackgroundKo, J., Leung, C. K., & Yu, C. (2024) · Research in Globalization · doi:10.1016/j.resglo.2024.100258 · Cited by 14
Feeble rules: one dual-use sanctions regime, multiple ways of implementation and application?
Meissner, K. L., & Urbanski, K. (2021) · European Security · doi:10.1080/09662839.2021.1993189 · Cited by 14
Sanctions and economic growth: Do sanction diversity and level of development matter?
Alhassan, A., sabzehmeidani, A. S., Taha, A., et al. (2023) · Heliyon · doi:10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e19571 · Cited by 13
“[36], suggest that multilateral sanctions inflict greater harm and reduces the possibility of the substitutions of economic sources for the target state and hence, induces compliance.”
BackgroundThe Enforcement of U.S. Economic Sanctions and Global De-risking Behavior
Early, B. R., & Peterson, T. M. (2023) · Journal of Conflict Resolution · doi:10.1177/00220027231214748 · Cited by 13
“If sanctions regimes are multilateral and/or have the support of an international organization, that can increase their efficacy as well (Drezner 2000; Morgan and Bapat 2009; McLean and Whang 2010).”
Economic Sanctions, Transnational Terrorism, and the Incentive to Misrepresent
Bapat, N. A., De la Calle, L., Hinkkainen, K. H., & McLean, E. V. (2016) · The Journal of Politics · doi:10.1086/683257 · Cited by 39
Self-citationGlobal Governance From Below: Regional Sanctions as Drivers of UN Sanctions
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“The more third parties ‘ gang up ’ against the target, the fewer alternative sources remain for the target to replace trade and aid fl ows, and the more economic pressure accumulates (Doxey 1987), enhancing sanctions effectiveness (Bapat and Morgan 2009; Hufbauer et al. 2007).”
BackgroundUS Economic Sanctions Against China: A Cultural Explanation of Sanction Effectiveness
Li, Y. (2014) · Asian perspective · doi:10.1353/apr.2014.0013 · Cited by 11
Cho, W. (2017) · Defence and Peace Economics · doi:10.1080/10242694.2017.1392832 · Cited by 11
“Bapat and Morgan (2009) also find that ‘multilateral sanctions do appear to work more frequently than do unilateral sanctions’ because they have ‘the potential to create more coercive power than unilateral sanctions.’”
BackgroundNatural Gas as an Instrument of Russian State Power
Mr., A. G. (2011) · Cited by 11
Barriers to child vaccination: The role of international sanctions
Ko, J., Leung, C. K., Lee, H. F., et al. (2024) · SSM - Population Health · doi:10.1016/j.ssmph.2024.101723 · Cited by 10
““ -^ ” denotes that not all lagged years show a negative association. sanctions are generally less effective than unilateral sanctions, as evidenced by studies like Bapat and Morgan (2009) and Wen et al. (2021).”
The Unintended Consequences of Financial SanctionsPreprint
Keerati, R. (2022) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.4049281 · Cited by 10
Monitoring the Monitor? Selective Responses to Human Rights Transgressions
Attia, H., & Grauvogel, J. (2023) · International Studies Quarterly · doi:10.1093/isq/sqad014 · Cited by 9
Sanctions and target public opinion: Experimental evidence from Turkey
Zarpli, O. (2023) · International Interactions · doi:10.1080/03050629.2023.2184814 · Cited by 9
“For example, some studies show that sanctions by international organizations (IOs) can be more effective (e.g. Bapat and Clifton Morgan 2009).”
BackgroundJaeger, M. D. (2021) · Swiss Political Science Review · doi:10.1111/spsr.12436 · Cited by 9
Kwon, J. (2020) · Asian perspective · doi:10.1353/apr.2020.0006 · Cited by 9
Talking to the hand: Bargaining, strategic interaction, and economic sanctions
Morgan, T., & Kobayashi, Y. (2021) · European Economic Review · doi:10.1016/j.euroecorev.2021.103685 · Cited by 8
Effectiveness of Sanctions in International Politics
Силаева, В. А. (2021) · MGIMO Review of International Relations · doi:10.24833/2071-8160-2021-4-79-136-153 · Cited by 8
International Sanctions against Iran under President Ahmadinejad: Explaining Regime PersistencePreprint
Borszik, O. (2014) · RePEc: Research Papers in Economics · Cited by 8
Feaver, P. D., & Lorber, E. (2010) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.1661963 · Cited by 8
McLean, E. V. (2021) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oxfordhb/9780198793519.013.2 · Cited by 7
Metadata
- Authors
- Bapat, N. A., & Clifton Morgan, T.
- Affiliations
- University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill (US)
- ORCID
- Bapat, Navin A.
- Venue
- International Studies Quarterly
- Publisher
- Oxford University Press (OUP)
- Published
- 2009-12
- Volume
- 53
- Issue
- 4
- Pages
- 1075-1094
- ISSN
- 0020-8833 (ISSN-L)
- 1468-2478
- OpenAlex
- W1994873719
- Semantic Scholar
- 8ebe480dee799f364ac684547aca743f19926fcd
- Cited by
- 230
- References
- 38
- Citations by year
- 2026: 12 · 2025: 23 · 2024: 24 · 2023: 25 · 2022: 17 · 2021: 20 · 2020: 14 · 2019: 11 · 2018: 13 · 2017: 8 · 2016: 14 · 2015: 8 · 2014: 9 · 2013: 10 · 2012: 9
- FWCI
- 16.47
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- International Studies Quarterly (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Economic Sanctions and International Relations
- Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › International Relations and Foreign Policy
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Defense, Military, and Policy Studies
- Keywords
- economic sanctions, multilateral sanctions, unilateral sanctions, sanctions effectiveness, spatial modeling, international institutions, issue salience
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