Requiem for the Net Migrant
Abstract
Despite recent research that has demonstrated the clear superiority of a multiregional perspective in measuring and projecting the dynamics of internal migration flows, many scholars continue to adopt the uniregional perspective that is forced to focus on net migrants, a nonexistent category of individuals. Net migration models are misspecified because the rates that they use confound changing migration propensities with changing population stocks. Moreover, they obscure regularities in age profiles of migration and thereby further misspecify the spatial dynamics generating observed settlement patterns. Thus, the use of the net migration rate as the dependent variable in explanatory models of migration can produce a misspecification of the fundamental relationships that are the subject of inquiry. This paper considers deficiencies of the net migration concept and illustrates them with numerical examples.
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The traditional focus on net migration has hidden the relevance of migratory flows for demography.
“Moreover, the traditional focus on net migration (i.e., the difference between the number of immigrants and the number of outmigrants) has hidden the relevance of migratory flows for demography (Rogers 1990).”
From Demography: Fast and Slow (2022) · cites this paper as Rogers 1990
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Billari, F. C. (2022) · Population and Development Review · doi:10.1111/padr.12464 · Cited by 52 · see citing works
Applying and testing a forecasting model for age and sex patterns of immigration and emigration
Raymer, J., & Wiśniowski, A. (2018) · Population Studies · doi:10.1080/00324728.2018.1469784 · Cited by 26 · see citing works
- Authors
- Rogers, A.
- Corresponding author
- Rogers, Andrei
- Venue
- Geographical Analysis
- Publisher
- Wiley
- Published
- 1990-10
- Volume
- 22
- Issue
- 4
- Pages
- 283-300
- ISSN
- 0016-7363 (ISSN-L)
- 1538-4632
- OpenAlex
- W2072560753
- Cited by
- 192
- References
- 0
- Citations by year
- 2026: 7 · 2025: 7 · 2024: 6 · 2023: 4 · 2022: 2 · 2021: 6 · 2020: 8 · 2019: 6 · 2018: 5 · 2017: 9 · 2016: 9 · 2015: 15 · 2014: 6 · 2013: 11 · 2012: 9
- FWCI
- 28.24
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Geographical Analysis (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Migration and Labor Dynamics
- Social Sciences › Demography › Regional Socio-Economic Development Trends
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Urban, Neighborhood, and Segregation Studies
- Keywords
- net migration, internal migration, migration propensity, settlement patterns, model misspecification, net migration rate
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