Applying and testing a forecasting model for age and sex patterns of immigration and emigration
Open accessAbstract
International migration flows are considered the most difficult demographic component to forecast and, for that reason, models for forecasting migration are few and relatively undeveloped. This is worrying because, in developed societies, international migration is often the largest component of population growth and most influential in debates about societal and economic change. In this paper, we address the need for better forecasting models of international migration by testing a hierarchical (bilinear) model within the Bayesian inferential framework, recently developed to forecast age and sex patterns of immigration and emigration in the United Kingdom, on other types of migration flow data: age- and sex-specific time series from Sweden, South Korea, and Australia. The performances of the forecasts are compared and assessed with the observed time-series data. The results demonstrate the generality and flexibility of the model and of Bayesian inference for forecasting migration, as well as for further research.
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Self-citation
- Authors
- Raymer, J., & Wiśniowski, A.
- Affiliations
- Australian National University (AU)
- University of Manchester (GB)
- Venue
- Population Studies
- Publisher
- Informa UK Limited
- Published
- 2018-06-06
- Volume
- 72
- Issue
- 3
- Pages
- 339-355
- ISSN
- 0032-4728 (ISSN-L)
- 1477-4747
- OpenAlex
- W2799346240
- Cited by
- 26
- References
- 27
- Citations by year
- 2026: 1 · 2025: 2 · 2024: 3 · 2023: 2 · 2022: 8 · 2021: 6 · 2020: 3 · 2018: 1
- FWCI
- 5.15
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- Licence
- other-oa
- Locations
- Population Studies (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Research Explorer (The University of Manchester) (publishedVersion, other-oa)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- ANU Open Research (Australian National University) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- Economic and Social Research Council
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Demography › Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Migration and Labor Dynamics
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Management Science and Operations Research › Forecasting Techniques and Applications
- Keywords
- immigration, emigration, Bayesian forecasting, model generalization, United Kingdom, Sweden, South Korea, Australia
- MeSH terms
- Age Factors, Australia, Bayes Theorem, Emigration and Immigration, Humans, Models, Theoretical, Population Dynamics, Sex Factors, Sweden, Reproducibility of Results, Developed Countries, Republic of Korea
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