Cited by 26Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk ManagementMigration and Labor DynamicsForecasting Techniques and Applications

Applying and testing a forecasting model for age and sex patterns of immigration and emigration

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Raymer, James, Wiśniowski, Arkadiusz·2018·Population Studies

Abstract

International migration flows are considered the most difficult demographic component to forecast and, for that reason, models for forecasting migration are few and relatively undeveloped. This is worrying because, in developed societies, international migration is often the largest component of population growth and most influential in debates about societal and economic change. In this paper, we address the need for better forecasting models of international migration by testing a hierarchical (bilinear) model within the Bayesian inferential framework, recently developed to forecast age and sex patterns of immigration and emigration in the United Kingdom, on other types of migration flow data: age- and sex-specific time series from Sweden, South Korea, and Australia. The performances of the forecasts are compared and assessed with the observed time-series data. The results demonstrate the generality and flexibility of the model and of Bayesian inference for forecasting migration, as well as for further research.

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Crossref · 10.1080/00324728.2018.1469784

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Authors
Raymer, J., & Wiśniowski, A.
Affiliations
  • Australian National University (AU)
  • University of Manchester (GB)
Venue
Population Studies
Published
2018-06-06
Volume
72
Issue
3
Pages
339-355
ISSN
  • 0032-4728 (ISSN-L)
  • 1477-4747
OpenAlex
W2799346240
Cited by
26
References
27
Citations by year
2026: 1 · 2025: 2 · 2024: 3 · 2023: 2 · 2022: 8 · 2021: 6 · 2020: 3 · 2018: 1
FWCI
5.15
Type
journal article
Language
en
Licence
other-oa
Locations
  • Population Studies (publishedVersion)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
  • Research Explorer (The University of Manchester) (publishedVersion, other-oa)
  • RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
  • ANU Open Research (Australian National University) (submittedVersion)
Funders
Economic and Social Research Council
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Demography › Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management
  • Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Migration and Labor Dynamics
  • Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Management Science and Operations Research › Forecasting Techniques and Applications
Keywords
immigration, emigration, Bayesian forecasting, model generalization, United Kingdom, Sweden, South Korea, Australia
MeSH terms
Age Factors, Australia, Bayes Theorem, Emigration and Immigration, Humans, Models, Theoretical, Population Dynamics, Sex Factors, Sweden, Reproducibility of Results, Developed Countries, Republic of Korea

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