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Cited by 1,738

The DOI matches its Crossref record; 20 of the 20 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.

The Term Structure as a Predictor of Real Economic Activity

ESTRELLA, ARTURO, HARDOUVELIS, GIKAS A.·1991·The Journal of Finance
DOI 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1991.tb02674.x
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Abstract

A positive slope of the yield curve is associated with a future increase in real economic activity: consumption (nondurables plus services), consumer durables, and investment. It has extra predictive power over the index of leading indicators, real short‐term interest rates, lagged growth in economic activity, and lagged rates of inflation. It outperforms survey forecasts, both in‐sample and out‐of‐sample. Historically, the information in the slope reflected, inter alia, factors that were independent of monetary policy, and thus the slope could have provided useful information both to private investors and to policy makers.

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Crossref · 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1991.tb02674.x

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Metadata

Authors
ESTRELLA, A., & HARDOUVELIS, G. A.
Venue
The Journal of Finance
Publisher
Wiley
Published
1991-06
Volume
46
Issue
2
Pages
555-576
ISSN
  • 0022-1082 (ISSN-L)
  • 1540-6261
DOI
10.1111/j.1540-6261.1991.tb02674.x
OpenAlex
W2136241359
Cited by
1,738
References
20
FWCI
52.08
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
closed

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CoChat. (2026). Citation check: The Term Structure as a Predictor of Real Economic Activity. https://app.cochat.ai/papers/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1991.tb02674.x
The paper
ESTRELLA, A., & HARDOUVELIS, G. A. (1991). The Term Structure as a Predictor of Real Economic Activity. The Journal of Finance. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1991.tb02674.x

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Bibliographic data: Semantic Scholar, OpenAlex, Crossref.

Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).

Semantic Scholar’s data is described in: Kinney, R., et al. (2023). The Semantic Scholar Open Data Platform. arXiv:2301.10140.