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Risks for the Long Run: A Potential Resolution of Asset Pricing Puzzles
Open accessAbstract
We model consumption and dividend growth rates as containing (1) a small long‐run predictable component, and (2) fluctuating economic uncertainty (consumption volatility). These dynamics, for which we provide empirical support, in conjunction with Epstein and Zin's (1989) preferences, can explain key asset markets phenomena. In our economy, financial markets dislike economic uncertainty and better long‐run growth prospects raise equity prices. The model can justify the equity premium, the risk‐free rate, and the volatility of the market return, risk‐free rate, and the price–dividend ratio. As in the data, dividend yields predict returns and the volatility of returns is time‐varying.
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Forecasting the equity risk premium: the role of technical indicators
Neely, C. J., Rapach, D. E., Tu, J., & Zhou, G. (2014) · Management Science · doi:10.1287/mnsc.2013.1838 · Cited by 1,003
Disaster on the horizon: The price effect of sea level rise
Bernstein, A., Gustafson, M. T., & Lewis, R. (2019) · Journal of Financial Economics · doi:10.1016/j.jfineco.2019.03.013 · Cited by 890
Market expectations in the cross-section of present values
KELLY, B., & PRUITT, S. (2013) · The Journal of Finance · doi:10.1111/jofi.12060 · Cited by 584
Pricing Uncertainty Induced by Climate Change
Barnett, M., Brock, W., & Hansen, L. P. (2020) · The Review of Financial Studies · doi:10.1093/rfs/hhz144 · Cited by 467
Metadata
- Authors
- Bansal, R., & Yaron, A.
- Venue
- The Journal of Finance
- Publisher
- Wiley
- Published
- 2004-08
- Volume
- 59
- Issue
- 4
- Pages
- 1481-1509
- ISSN
- 0022-1082 (ISSN-L)
- 1540-6261
- OpenAlex
- W2113704261
- Cited by
- 4,242
- References
- 1
- FWCI
- 12.70
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
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