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Anatomy of a crisis: the causes and consequences of surging food prices
Open accessAbstract
Although the potential causes and consequences of recent rising international food prices have attracted widespread attention, many existing appraisals are superficial and/or piecemeal. This article attempts to provide a more comprehensive review of these issues based on the best and most recent research, as well as on fresh theoretical and empirical analysis. We first analyze the causes of the current crisis by considering how well standard explanations hold up against relevant economic theory and important stylized facts. Some explanations turn out to hold up much better than others, especially rising oil prices, the depreciation of the U.S. dollar, biofuels demand, and some commodity‐specific explanations. We then provide an appraisal of the likely macro‐ and microeconomic impacts of the crisis on developing countries. We observe a large gap between macro and micro factors, which, when identifying the most vulnerable countries, often point in different directions. We conclude with a brief discussion of what ought to be learned from this crisis.
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“The increase in publications after 2009 can almost certainly be attributed to the renewed interest in global food and nutrition research that was triggered by the 2007-2008 global food price crisis 11 .”
From A meta-analysis of projected global food demand and population at risk of hunger for the period 2010–2050 (2021) · cites this paper as [11]
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Metadata
- Authors
- Headey, D., & Fan, S.
- Affiliations
- International Food Policy Research Institute (US)
- Corresponding author
- Headey, Derek
- Venue
- Agricultural Economics
- Publisher
- Wiley
- Published
- 2008-11
- Volume
- 39
- Issue
- s1
- Pages
- 375-391
- ISSN
- 0169-5150 (ISSN-L)
- 1574-0862
- OpenAlex
- W2147281505
- Cited by
- 725
- References
- 38
- Citations by year
- 2026: 41 · 2025: 28 · 2024: 25 · 2023: 33 · 2022: 29 · 2021: 44 · 2020: 33 · 2019: 38 · 2018: 29 · 2017: 26 · 2016: 50 · 2015: 37 · 2014: 68 · 2013: 71 · 2012: 58
- FWCI
- 87.85
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- Agricultural Economics (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- IFPRI E-brary (International Food Policy Research Institute) (submittedVersion)
- CGSPace A Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (Consultative Group for International Agricultural Research) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- CGSPace A Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (Consultative Group for International Agricultural Research) (submittedVersion)
- International Food Policy Research Institute (International Food Policy Research Institute) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- International Fine Particle Research Institute
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Economics of Agriculture and Food Markets
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Market Dynamics and Volatility
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Agricultural economics and policies
- Keywords
- food price surge, global food prices, oil prices, U.S. dollar depreciation, commodity prices, macroeconomic effects, microeconomic impact, developing countries, food security
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
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