China's New Demographic Reality: Learning from the 2010 Census
Open accessAbstract
China conducted its sixth modern census in 2010, recording a total of 1.34 billion people. This article presents an overview of the early census results. The data are of reasonable quality but contain some apparent defects where adjustments may be required. The census confirms that China has entered the era of demographic modernity and depicts the vast transformation of the country's rural‐urban distribution. Life expectancy has risen by 3–4 years in the decade since the last census, while fertility remains well below replacement—probably as low as 1.5 births per woman—and the sex ratio at birth is still significantly elevated. Low fertility and falling old‐age mortality are leading to continued and rapid population aging. Several coastal provinces grew by as much as 40 percent in the last decade, while a number of inland provinces have recorded population decline. China has reached an overall urban proportion of 50 percent.
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Claims the paper makes
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
The same census revealed that China's fertility had been below replacement level for almost a decade, coupled with an alarmingly high sex ratio at birth.
“The same census also revealed that China's fertility had been below replacement level for almost a decade, coupled with an alarmingly high sex ratio at birth (Lavely 2001, Cai 2013).”
From The Social and Sociological Consequences of China's One-Child Policy (2021) · cites this paper as Cai 2013
Section 4, “Fertility and Sex Ratio” (page not provided), supports the low-fertility and high-sex-ratio claims: it says fertility fell below replacement at the beginning of the 1990s and that the sex ratio of children born after 2000 remained alarmingly high. The stated duration is imprecise: by the 2010 census, fertility had been below replacement for roughly two decades, not almost one. (LLM, conf=0.87)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredBy 2000, China's population census counted a total population of 1.26 billion, 60 million more than the control target set by the one-child policy.
“By 2000, China's population census counted a total population of 1.26 billion, 60 million more than the control target set by the one-child policy, but apparently a larger population had not hindered China's economic ascendance.”
From The Social and Sociological Consequences of China's One-Child Policy (2021) · cites this paper as Cai 2013
Section 2, “Census Data Quality, First Look” (page unavailable), reports that the 2000 census enumerated 1,265.8 million people, supporting the approximate census total. The paper does not identify a one-child-policy population target for 2000 or state that the census count exceeded it by 60 million. (LLM, conf=0.87)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
The self-check needs the paper’s full text.
Cites
Five Decades of Missing Females in China
Coale, A. J., & Banister, J. (1994) · Demography · doi:10.2307/2061752 · Cited by 447 · cited 1× · see citing works
“It has been shown by previous studies that population data from China are of reasonable quality in adult ages (e.g. Banister and Hill 2004; Coale 1985; Coale and Banister 1994).”
MethodSex ratio at birth in China, with reference to other areas in East Asia: What we know
Gu, B., & Roy, K. (1995) · Asia-Pacific Population Journal · doi:10.18356/59499b63-en · Cited by 187 · see citing works
Merli, M. G., & Raftery, A. E. (2000) · Demography · doi:10.2307/2648100 · Cited by 110 · cited 1× · see citing works
“The implementation of the one-child policy since 1980 has further exacerbated the problem of underenumeration (Goodkind 2004; Merli and Raftery 2000; Zeng et al. 1996).”
Background
Flagged first, then by citations
Research works printed but not linked: 42
- Banister Judith Hill Kenneth 2004 Mortality in China 1964–2000 Population Studies 58 55 75 15204262
- Bongaarts John 2006 How Long Will We Live? Population and Development Review 32 4 605 628
- Cai Yong Lavely William 2003 China’s Missing Girls: Numerical Estimates and Effects on Population Growth The China Review 3 13 29
- Cai Yong 2008 Assessing fertility levels in China using variable-r method Demography 45 2 371 81 PMC2831367 18613481
- Cai Yong 2010 Social Forces behind China’s below Replacement Fertility: Government Policy or Socioeconomic Development Population and Development Review 36 3 419 440 20882701
- Cai Yong 2013 China’s Demographic Challenges: Gender Imbalance Paper presented at the “China’s Challenges: the Road Ahead” conference at the Center for the Study of Contemporary China University of Pennsylvania April 25–26, 2013
- Coale Ansley 1984 Rapid Population Change in China, 1952–1982 Committee on Population and Demography, Report No. 27 Washington, D.C National Academy Press
- Coale Ansley Demeny Paul George Vaughan Barbara 1983 Regional Model Life Tables and Stable Populations 2 New York Academic Press
- Goodkind Daniel 2004 China’s missing children: The 2000 census underreporting surprise Population Studies 58 281 295 15513284
- Goodkind Daniel 2011 Child Underreporting, Fertility, and Sex Ratio Imbalance in China Demography 48 1 291 316 21336689
- Greenhalgh Susan 2013 Patriarchal Demographics? China’s Sex Ratio Reconsidered Population and Development Review 38 130 149
- Gu Baochang Feng Wang 2009 An Experiment of Eight Million People--reports from areas with two-child policy Beijing China Social Sciences Academic Press
- Gu Baochang Feng Wang Guo Zhigang Erli Zhang 2007 China’s Local and National Fertility Policy at the Twentieth Century Population and Development Review 33 1 129 147
- Guilmoto Christophe 2009 The Sex Ratio Transition in Asia Population and Development Review 35 3 519 549
- Guilmoto Christophe 2012 Skewed Sex Ratios at Birth and Future Marriage Squeeze in China and India, 2005–2100 Demography 49 1 2 1 77 100 10.2307/41408220 22180130 · DOI
- Guo Zhigang Chen Wei Zhao Zhongwei Guo Fei 2007 Below replacement fertility in mainland China Transition and Challenge: China’s Population at the Turn of the Twenty-First Century Oxford University Press 54 70
- Guo Zhigang 2011 2010 Population Census Data Indicates Serious Micount in Past Population Estimation and Projection Chinese Journal of Population Science 2011 1 2 13
- Guo Zhigang 2013 The Low Fertility Rate is the Major Demographic Risk in China China Economic Journal 10.1080/17538963.2012.761834 · DOI
- Jiang Zhenghua 2006 Thinking Ahead of Population Policies in the New Era Chinese Journal of Population Science 6 2 5 (In Chinese)
- Lavely William 2001 First impressions from the 2000 Census of China Population and Development Review 24 4 755 69
- Li Shuzhuo 2007 Imbalanced sex ratio at birth and comprehensive intervention in China Paper presented at 4th Asia Pacific Conference on reproductive and Sexual Health and rights 29–31 October Hyderabad, India New York UNFPA
- Lutz Wolfgang Lutz Skirbekk Vegard Testa Maria Rita 2006 The Low Fertility Trap Hypothesis Vienna Yearbook of Population Research Vienna Austrian Academy of Sciences Press
- Merli M Giovanna 1998 Underreporting of Births and Infant Deaths in Rural China: Evidence from Field Research in One County of Northern China The China Quarterly 637 655
- Ministry of Education, China (MOE) 2003–2010 China Education Statistical Yearbook Beijing People’s Education Press
- Ministry of Health, China (MOH) 2000–2012 China Health Statistical Yearbook Beijing Peking Union Medical College Press
- Morgan Philip Guo Zhigang Hayford 2009 China’s Below-Replacement Fertility: Recent Trends and Future Prospects Population and Development Review 35 3 605 629 20376285 PMC2849170
- Murphy Rachel Tao Ran Lu Xi 2011 Son Preference in Rural China: Patrilineal Families and Socioeconomic Change Population and Development Review 37 4 665 90 22319769
- National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS) 2011 Major Figures on 2010 Population Census of China Beijing China Statistical Press
- National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS) 2012 Tabulation on the 2010 Population Census of the People’s Republic of China Beijing China Statistical Press
- National Bureau of Statistics of China and East-West Center (NBS and EWC) 2007 Fertility Estimates for Provinces of China, 1975–2000 Beiing China Statistics Press
- National Population and Family Planning Commission of China (NPFPC) 2007 Data Handbook for Population and Family Planning 2006 Beijing China Population Press (In Chinese)
- National Population Development Strategy Research Group (NPDSRG) 2007 National Population Development Strategy Research Report Beijing China Population Press (In Chinese)
- Oeppen Jim Vaupel James W 2002 Broken Limits to Life Expectancy Science 296 5570 1029 1031 12004104
- Retherford Robert Choe Minja K Chen Jiajian Xiru Li Cui Hongyan 2005 How Far Has Fertility in China Really Declined? Population and Development Review 31 57 84
- Scharping Thomas 2003 Birth control in China, 1949–2000: population policy and demographic development London/New York Routledge
- Scharping Thomas Zhao Zhongwei Guo Fei 2007 The Politics of Numbers: Fertility Data in Recent Decades Transition and Challenge: China’s Population at the Turn of the Twenty-First Century Oxford University Press 34 53
- South Scott J Trent Katherine 2010 Imbalanced Sex Ratios, Men’s Sexual Behavior, and Risk of Sexually Transmitted Infection in China Journal of Health and Social Behavior 51 4 12 1 376 390 10.2307/20798301 21131616 PMC3045828 · DOI
- Wang Fei-Ling 2005 Organizing Through Division and Exclusion: China’s Hukou system Stanford, California Stanford University Press
- Wang Feng Cai Yong Gu Baochang 2013 Population, Policy, and Politics: How Will History Judge China’s One-Child Policy? Population and Development Review 38 Supplement 115 129
- Zeng Yi Ping Tu Baochang Gu Yi Xu Bohua Li Yongping Li 1993 Causes and Implications of the Recent Increase in the Reported Sex Ratio at Birth in China Population and Development Review 19 283 302
- Zhang Guangyu Zhao Zhongwei 2006 Reexamining China’s fertility puzzle: Data collection and quality over the last two decades Population and Development Review 32 2 293 321
- Zhao Baige 2009 News Conference December 9th, 2009 in Copenhagen, reported in “Population control called key to deal” by China Daily December 10th, 2010
Cited by
Sorted by citations
The end of China’s one-child policy
Feng, W., Gu, B., & Cai, Y. (2016) · Studies in Family Planning · doi:10.1111/j.1728-4465.2016.00052.x · Cited by 245 · see citing works
Self-citationThe Social and Sociological Consequences of China's One-Child Policy
Cai, Y., & Feng, W. (2021) · Annual Review of Sociology · doi:10.1146/annurev-soc-090220-032839 · Cited by 120 · see citing works
Self-citation
- Authors
- Cai, Y.
- Affiliations
- University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill (US)
- Corresponding author
- Cai, Yong
- ORCID
- Cai, Yong
- Venue
- Population and Development Review
- Publisher
- Wiley
- Published
- 2013-09
- Volume
- 39
- Issue
- 3
- Pages
- 371-396
- ISSN
- 0098-7921 (ISSN-L)
- 1728-4457
- PMC
- PMC4302763
- OpenAlex
- W2161028089
- Cited by
- 113
- References
- 3
- Citations by year
- 2026: 5 · 2025: 10 · 2024: 3 · 2023: 7 · 2022: 8 · 2021: 12 · 2020: 9 · 2019: 25 · 2018: 6 · 2017: 7 · 2016: 8 · 2015: 9 · 2014: 4
- FWCI
- 15.31
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
- Locations
- Population and Development Review (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (acceptedVersion)
- Carolina Digital Repository (University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill) (submittedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- UNC Libraries
- Funders
- John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation
- National Natural Science Foundation of China (G030602, 71273059)
- National Institutes of Health (2r24hd050924-06)
- National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (R24-HD050924)
- Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (R24 HD-050924, HD050924)
- Carolina Population Center, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill (R24HD050924, HD050924)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Gender Studies › Demographic Trends and Gender Preferences
- Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › China's Socioeconomic Reforms and Governance
- Social Sciences › Demography › Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management
- Keywords
- 2010 Census, population size, rural-urban migration, life expectancy, fertility, replacement-level fertility, sex ratio at birth, population aging, old-age mortality, urbanization, China
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
