Are births underreported in rural China? Manipulation of statistical records in response to China’s population policies
Open accessAbstract
Under the current family planning policy in China, the criterion for evaluating all parties involved in the birth planning system provides an incentive for everyone to see that the policy is met, either in reality through strict enforcement of family planning regulations, or statistically through manipulation of statistical records. We investigate underreporting of births in four rural counties of northern China, using data from a 1992 sample survey featuring a reproductive history. To clarify the mechanisms of underreporting, we focus on the ways in which reporting errors may affect the distribution of first births by time since marriage. The results of our investigation suggest that in three of the four counties, first-birth intervals are lengthened by underreporting of girl babies and by replacing them with second births reported as first births.
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A study carried out in rural Sichuan province in 1990 reported a doubling of maternal deaths for unapproved pregnancies as compared with those receiving government sanction.
“A study carried out in rural Sichuan province in 1990 reported a doubling of maternal deaths for unapproved pregnancies as compared with those receiving government sanction. 11”
From The Effect of China's One-Child Family Policy after 25 Years (2005) · cites this paper as [11]
The paper’s study description (p. 109) places its survey in northern China in 1992 and describes an analysis of underreported births. The Data section discusses infant deaths, not maternal deaths. Searches for Sichuan, maternal mortality, and a comparison of approved with unapproved pregnancies found no passage reporting the claimed doubling. (LLM, conf=0.76)
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Poston, D. L., Wu, J. J., & Kim, H. G. (2003) · Seoul National University Open Repository (Seoul National University) · Cited by 9 · see citing works
Demographic shifts and the spread of HIV in China.
Hertog, S., Mg, M., Johnson, K. L., Sa, G., Armecin, G., Pop-Eleches, C., Miller, G., Urdinola, P., Jg, Z., Thirumurthy, H., et al. (2007) · Journal of Psychosomatic Obstetrics & Gynecology · Cited by 9 · see citing works
Dynamics between Regional Sex Ratios at Birth and Sex Ratios at Prime Marriageable Ages in China
Xiong, W. (2022) · Population and Development Review · doi:10.1111/padr.12476 · Cited by 8 · see citing works
The Limits and Consequences of Population Policy: Evidence from China's Wan Xi Shao CampaignPreprint
Babiarz, K. S., Ma, P., Miller, G., & Song, S. (2018) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.3386/w25130 · Cited by 8 · see citing works
“…quality is warranted.27 Under-reporting of births and under-enumeration of living children (and living girls in particular) during the 1980s and 1990s is well documented in the demography literature (Cai and Lavely, 2003; Goodkind, 2011; Merli and Raftery, 2000; Yi, 1996; Zhang and Zhao, 2006).”
The Re-emergence of “Missing Women” in China
Bulte, E., Hsieh, C., Tu, Q., & Wang, R. (2021) · The China Quarterly · doi:10.1017/s0305741021000503 · Cited by 7 · see citing works
“11 Merli and Raftery 2000.”
Sibling Availability, Sibling Sorting, and Subjective Health Among Chinese Adults
Wang, H., Verdery, A. M., & Margolis, R. (2024) · Demography · doi:10.1215/00703370-11376831 · Cited by 6 · see citing works
Social Conditions and Infant Mortality in China: A Test of the Fundamental Cause Perspective:
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Overestimated SRB and Missing Girls in China
Li, M., & Jiang, Q. (2021) · Frontiers in Sociology · doi:10.3389/fsoc.2021.756364 · Cited by 5 · see citing works
“…October 2021 | Volume 6 | Article 7563641 OPINION published: 26 October 2021 doi: 10.3389/fsoc.2021.756364 Health Commission) was usually manipulated downward as the SRB was an important indicator in the family planning performance evaluation (Merli and Raftery, 2000; Zhang and Zhao, 2006).”
BackgroundInfluentialZhang, G. (2004) · ANU Open Research (Australian National University) · doi:10.25911/5d7a2c2d8fee4 · Cited by 5 · see citing works
Religious Geography and County‐Level Sex Ratios in China
Tong, Y., Sennott, C. A., & Yang, F. (2020) · Journal for the Scientific Study of Religion · doi:10.1111/jssr.12697 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
Thirty-year mystery of birth and fertility in China
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Bevölkerungspolitik im Kontext ökologischer Generationengerechtigkeit
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Bevölkerungspolitik im Kontext ökologischer Generationengerechtigkeit
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State policy and contraceptive choices: evidence from China 1979–2012
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“…the loosened policy period of 1995–2012 (Wang, 2012b, 2014a, 2014b).4 This two-period division follows earlier published works (Peng, 1997, p. 144; Zhang, 2007, p. 207) and has been widely used in many published studies (Li et al., 2008; Marston & Cleland, 2003; Merli & Raftery, 2000; Wang, 2014b).”
MethodChina's One Child Policy and Male Surplus as a Source of Demand for Sex Trafficking to China
Hall, A. T. (2010) · UA Campus Repository (The University of Arizona) · Cited by 3 · see citing works
Population Policy as a Means for Bio-Politics: The Cases of Romania and China
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Gender-Biased Sex Selection in Asia: Motives, Methods, Magnitudes
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Migrant Women and the Distribution of their Income in Hubei Province, China
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Data Uncertainties in China’s Population
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“For this reason, the National Bureau of Statistics has been upwards adjusted the number of births reported annually; in the 1990s and early 2000s, scholars were concerned that NBS underestimated the number of people born in the 1990s (Merli & Raftery, 2000; Attané, 2001).”
BackgroundCoercive Policies Impair Survey Measurement: Evidence from Sanitation Policy in IndiaPreprint
Vyas, S., & Franz, N. (2024) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.4997356 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Daniels, J. (2006) · BMJ · doi:10.1136/bmj.333.7564.373
Below Replacement Fertility Preferences in Shanghai
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Self-citationHuman Sex Ratio and Family Size for a Selected Sample from the China Population in 2008
Wang, Z., & Gray, E. (2009) · Journal of the Kentucky Academy of Science · doi:10.3101/1098-7096-70.1.63
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Administrative Challenges of Population Policy
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Historical Underreporting and the Identification of the “Missing Girls”
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Street-Level Birth Control and Mutual Noncompliance
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Villagers, Daughters, and the Voices of the “Missing”
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Hide the Girls! One-Child Policy and Its Educational Consequences on the 'Unwanted' BirthsPreprint
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“6 Actually, previous studies by demographers have well documented that the Chinese family underreports or delays the hukou registration of unplanned girls (Banister, 1991; Cai and Lavely, 2003; Goodkind, 2004, 2011; Johansson and Arvidsson, 1994; Merli, 1998; Merli and Raftery, 2000; Shi and Kennedy, 2016; Zeng et al.…”
InfluentialThe Cultural Revolution and the Timing of First Marriage in China
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An Ethical Assessment of the Legitimacy of Anti-natalistic Birth Policies
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- Authors
- Merli, M. G., & Raftery, A. E.
- Affiliations
- University of Wisconsin–Madison (US)
- University of Washington (US)
- Venue
- Demography
- Publisher
- Duke University Press
- Published
- 2000-02-01
- Volume
- 37
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 109-126
- ISSN
- 0070-3370 (ISSN-L)
- 1533-7790
- OpenAlex
- W2018447293
- Cited by
- 110
- References
- 55
- Citations by year
- 2024: 3 · 2023: 3 · 2022: 4 · 2021: 4 · 2020: 3 · 2019: 20 · 2018: 4 · 2016: 6 · 2015: 7 · 2014: 1 · 2013: 4 · 2012: 3
- FWCI
- 1.73
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- Demography (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- DigitalGeorgetown (Georgetown University Library) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- Rockefeller Foundation
- University of Pennsylvania
- University of Washington
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Gender Studies › Demographic Trends and Gender Preferences
- Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › China's Socioeconomic Reforms and Governance
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Reproductive Health and Contraception
- Keywords
- statistical manipulation, family planning policy, one-child policy, rural China, first birth interval, sex-selective abortion, reproductive history
- MeSH terms
- China, Data Collection, Family Planning Services, Female, Forms and Records Control, Humans, Infant Mortality, Infant, Newborn, Male, Population Control, Public Policy, Regression Analysis, Rural Population, Sex Ratio, Proportional Hazards Models
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