The DOI matches its Crossref record.
The Effect on Fertility of the 2003–2011 War in Iraq
Open accessAbstract
This article provides the first detailed account of recent fertility trends in Iraq, with a particular focus on the changes resulting from the 2003–2011 war and the factors underlying them. The study is based on retrospective birth history data from the 2006 and 2011 Iraq Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (I‐MICS). Estimates from the two surveys indicate that total fertility remained stable from 1997 to 2010, at about 4.5 children per woman. However, examination of the age patterns of fertility reveals an abrupt shift in the timing of births, with adolescent fertility rising by over 30 percent soon after the onset of the war. A decomposition analysis shows that the rise in early childbearing is due to an increased prevalence of early marriage among less‐educated women. The prevalence of early marriage and childbearing among women with secondary or higher education is relatively low and has not increased after 2003.
Overview
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Verification
Claims the paper makes
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
The cited source says what the claim attributes to it.
In the citing paper
“Likewise, wars are extreme cases of political decisions quickly affecting fertility (e.g., Blanc 2004; Cetorelli 2014), mortality (e.g., Li and Wen 2005), and migration (e.g., Abel et al. 2019).”
From Demography: Fast and Slow (2022) · cites this paper as Cetorelli 2014
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
The self-check needs the paper’s full text.
Citations
Cites
No references could be resolved yet.
Research works printed but not linked: 68
- 10.1007/978-90-481-3198-3_5 · DOI
- 10.1007/BF03031967 · DOI
- 10.1016/j.mefs.2013.04.006 · DOI
- 10.1353/dem.2002.0013 · DOI
- Al-Kandari Yagoub Y., 2007, Fertility and its relationship with sociocultural factors in Kuwaiti society, Eastern Mediterranean Health Journal, 13, 1364, 10.26719/2007.13.6.1364 · DOI
- Arnold Fred, 1990, Assessment of the quality of birth history data in the Demographic and Health Surveys
- 10.1016/S0968-8080(08)31351-2 · DOI
- Baram Amatzia, 2000, The effects of Iraqi sanctions: Statistical pitfalls and responsibility, Middle East Journal, 54, 194
- 10.1111/j.0039-3665.2004.00028.x · DOI · Paper page
- Brown Lucy, 2006, Women in post-Saddam Iraq: One step forward and two steps back?, NWSA Journal, 18, 51
- 10.1016/S0140-6736(06)69491-9 · DOI
- Casterline John B., 2009, Fertility prospects in the Arab region
- 10.4054/DemRes.2012.26.13 · DOI
- Chesnais Jean-Claude, 1992, The Demographic Transition: Stages, Patterns and Economic Implications: A Longitudinal Study of Sixty-Seven Countries Covering the Period 1720–1984
- 10.1016/S0140-6736(06)67923-3 · DOI
- 10.1016/S0140-6736(09)61967-X · DOI
- 10.1016/S0140-6736(04)17187-0 · DOI
- 10.1080/00263209908701265 · DOI
- 10.2307/1966762 · DOI
- 10.2307/1533043 · DOI
- Garenne Michel, 2008, Fertility changes in Sub-Saharan Africa
- 10.1136/bmj.327.7416.650 · DOI
- Gubhaju B. E.Jongstra andM.Raikoti.2013. “Below-replacement fertility of ethnic Indians in Fiji: A decomposition analysis of the components of changes in the total fertility rate ” paper presented at the International Population Conference of the International Union for the Scientific Study of Population Busan 26–31 August. · DOI
- Guha-Sapir DebaratiandOliviaD'Aoust.2010. “Demographic and health consequences of civil conflict ”World Development Report 2011 Background Paper 62030. · DOI
- 10.1126/science.1127397 · DOI
- 10.1371/journal.pmed.1001533 · DOI
- 10.1080/00324728.1947.10415527 · DOI
- Hill Kenneth, 2004, War, Humanitarian Crises, Population Displacement and Fertility: A Review of Evidence
- 10.1056/NEJMsa0707782 · DOI
- Jain Saranga, 2007, New insights on preventing child marriage: A global analysis of factors and programs
- 10.1080/741954311 · DOI · Paper page
- 10.1080/713779091 · DOI
- 10.2307/2281213 · DOI
- 10.2307/2648112 · DOI
- Lindstrom David P., 2000, The demographic components of fertility decline in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia: A decomposition analysis, Genus, 147
- Machiyama Kazuyo, 2010, A re-examination of recent fertility declines in sub-Saharan Africa
- Marckwardt Albert M., 1996, Accuracy of DHS‐II demographic data: Gains and losses in comparison with earlier surveys
- 10.2307/2648255 · DOI
- 10.1007/978-90-481-2825-9_7 · DOI
- 10.1111/j.0361-3666.2004.00255.x · DOI
- 10.1016/S0277-9536(99)00253-1 · DOI
- 10.1371/journal.pmed.1000090 · DOI
- 10.2307/2173921 · DOI
- Pullum Thomas W., 2006, An assessment of age and date reporting in the DHS Surveys, 1985–2003
- Pullum Thomas W., 2008, The Methods and Materials of Demography, 407
- Pullum Thomas W. BrunoSchoumaker StanBecker andSarahE.K.Bradley.2013. “An assessment of DHS estimates of fertility and under-five mortality ” paper presented at the IUSSP International Population Conference Busan 26–31 August.
- 10.1177/0141076814530684 · DOI
- 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2005.00052.x · DOI · Paper page
- 10.1080/19485565.1978.9988329 · DOI
- 10.2307/1972598 · DOI
- Roberts Les, 2001, Mortality in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo: Results from 11 mortality surveys
- Roberts Les, 2003, Mortality in the Democratic Republic of Congo: Results from a nationwide survey
- 10.1016/S0140-6736(04)17441-2 · DOI
- Schoumaker Bruno, 2009, Stalls and reversals in fertility transitions in sub-Saharan Africa: Real or spurious
- 10.4054/DemRes.2013.28.38 · DOI
- 10.1016/S0140-6736(00)02404-1 · DOI
- 10.1007/s10680-005-6852-5 · DOI
- Tabutin Dominique, 2005, The demography of the Arab World and the Middle East from the 1950s to the 2000s: A survey of changes and a statistical assessment, Population, 60, 505, 10.3917/pope.505.0505 · DOI
- United Nations, 1987, Global Population Policy Database 1987
- United Nations, 2001, The Population Policy Data Bank
- United Nations, 2011, Global Population Policy Database 2011
- United Nations, 2013, Adolescent fertility since the International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD) in Cairo
- 10.2307/1524013 · DOI
- Winter J.M., 1992, The European Experience of Declining Fertility, 1850–1970: The Quiet Revolution, 291
- 10.4054/DemRes.2008.18.2 · DOI
- Yavuz Sutay.2005. “Fertility transition and the progression to third birth in Turkey ” MPIDR Working Paper 2005–2028. · DOI
- 10.4000/emam.495 · DOI
- 10.1002/psp.480 · DOI
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Billari, F. C. (2022) · Population and Development Review · doi:10.1111/padr.12464 · Cited by 52
Metadata
- Authors
- Cetorelli, V.
- Affiliations
- London School of Economics and Political Science (GB)
- Corresponding author
- Cetorelli, Valeria
- ORCID
- Cetorelli, Valeria
- Venue
- Population and Development Review
- Publisher
- Wiley
- Published
- 2014-12
- Volume
- 40
- Issue
- 4
- Pages
- 581-604
- ISSN
- 0098-7921 (ISSN-L)
- 1728-4457
- PMC
- PMC4539598
- OpenAlex
- W2157057285
- Cited by
- 81
- References
- 0
- Citations by year
- 2026: 11 · 2025: 7 · 2024: 4 · 2023: 6 · 2022: 9 · 2021: 13 · 2020: 5 · 2019: 7 · 2018: 19
- FWCI
- 0.00
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Population and Development Review (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- London School of Economics and Political Science Research Online (London School of Economics and Political Science) (acceptedVersion)
- London School of Economics and Political Science Theses Online (London School of Economics and Political Science) (submittedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- Economic and Social Research Council (1096838)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Reproductive Health and Contraception
- Social Sciences › Gender Studies › Demographic Trends and Gender Preferences
- Social Sciences › Demography › Family Dynamics and Relationships
- Keywords
- fertility, Iraq War, adolescent fertility, early marriage, age at first birth, educational attainment, birth timing
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
How to cite
Cite CoChat for the checks on this page, and the paper for its own findings.
- This page
- CoChat. (2026). Citation check: The Effect on Fertility of the 2003–2011 War in Iraq. https://app.cochat.ai/papers/10.1111/j.1728-4457.2014.00001.x
- The paper
- Cetorelli, V. (2014). The Effect on Fertility of the 2003–2011 War in Iraq. Population and Development Review. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1728-4457.2014.00001.x
