Rational Decisions
Abstract
Summary This paper deals first with the relationship between the theory of probability and the theory of rational behaviour. A method is then suggested for encouraging people to make accurate probability estimates, a connection with the theory of imformation being mentioned. Finally Wald’s theory of statistical decision functions is summarised and generalised and its relation to the theory of rational behaviour is discussed.
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The logarithmic scoring rule of Good (1952) is one measure of predictive ability and is based on the conditional predictive ordinate.
“One measure of predictive ability is the logarithmic scoring rule of Good, (1952) which is based on the conditional predictive ordinate (Geisser, 1980).”
From Bayesian model averaging: a tutorial (with comments by M. Clyde, David Draper and E. I. George, and a rejoinder by the authors (1999) · cites this paper as Good, (1952)
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- Authors
- Good, I. J.
- Corresponding author
- Good, I. J.
- Venue
- Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B: Statistical Methodology
- Publisher
- Oxford University Press (OUP)
- Published
- 1952-01-01
- Volume
- 14
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 107-114
- ISSN
- 1369-7412 (ISSN-L)
- 1467-9868
- OpenAlex
- W4239966440
- Cited by
- 976
- References
- 0
- Citations by year
- 2026: 21 · 2025: 72 · 2024: 107 · 2023: 69 · 2022: 54 · 2021: 49 · 2020: 34 · 2019: 32 · 2018: 37 · 2017: 28 · 2016: 27 · 2015: 32 · 2014: 41 · 2013: 39 · 2012: 41
- FWCI
- 0.91
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Licence
- academic.oup.com/journals/pages/open_access/funder_policies/chorus/standard_publication_model (vor)
- Locations
- Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B (Statistical Methodology) (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › General Decision Sciences › Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Statistics and Probability › Probability and Statistical Research
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Management Science and Operations Research › Game Theory and Applications
- Keywords
- probability theory, rational action, information theory, statistical decision theory, decision making under uncertainty
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