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Entrepreneurship: Cause and Consequence of Financial Optimism
Open accessAbstract
Extant evidence that the self‐employed overestimate their returns by a greater margin than employees is consistent with two mutually inclusive possibilities. Self‐employment may foster optimism or intrinsic optimists may be drawn to self‐employment. Previous research is generally unable to disentangle these effects because of reliance on cross‐sectional data. Using longitudinal data, this paper finds that employees who will be self‐employed in the future overestimate their short‐term financial wellbeing by more than those who never become self‐employed. Optimism is higher still when self‐employed. These results suggest that the greater optimism of the self‐employed reflects both psychological disposition and environmental factors. By providing greater scope for optimism, self‐employment entices the intrinsically optimistic.
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People tend to overestimate the extent to which they possess desirable attributes, but their true value nevertheless tends to increase in their estimated value, a property necessary for signaling.
“People tend to overestimate the extent to which they possess desirable attributes, but their true value nevertheless tends to increase in their estimated value, a property necessary for signaling.”
From Talking the talk, not walking the walk: The coevolution of overconfidence and loss aversion (2026) · cites this paper as Dawson et al. (2014)
The Results (section 5; page unavailable) report that people with stronger grounds for above-average financial forecasts were more likely to make higher forecasts. The Introduction (section 1; page unavailable) also describes evidence that self-employed people overestimate their prospects. These findings concern financial expectations, not desirable personal attributes generally; the paper does not establish that the relationship is necessary for signaling. (LLM, conf=0.82)
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Talking the talk, not walking the walk: The coevolution of overconfidence and loss aversion
Dawson, C., & de Meza, D. (2026) · Psychological Review · doi:10.1037/rev0000644 · Cited by 2
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Metadata
- Authors
- Dawson, C., de Meza, D., Henley, A., & Arabsheibani, G. R.
- Affiliations
- University of Bath (GB)
- London School of Economics and Political Science (GB)
- Aberystwyth University (GB)
- IZA - Institute of Labor Economics (DE)
- Corresponding author
- Dawson, Christopher
- de Meza, David
- Henley, Andrew
- Arabsheibani, G. Reza
- Venue
- Journal of Economics & Management Strategy
- Publisher
- Wiley
- Published
- 2014-10-25
- Volume
- 23
- Issue
- 4
- Pages
- 717-742
- ISSN
- 1058-6407 (ISSN-L)
- 1530-9134
- OpenAlex
- W2147634492
- Cited by
- 51
- References
- 2
- Citations by year
- 2025: 1 · 2024: 8 · 2023: 4 · 2022: 3 · 2021: 6 · 2020: 5 · 2019: 4 · 2018: 6 · 2017: 4 · 2016: 4 · 2015: 3 · 2014: 1
- FWCI
- 9.02
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- Journal of Economics & Management Strategy (publishedVersion)
- ORCA Online Research @Cardiff (Cardiff University) (acceptedVersion)
- London School of Economics and Political Science Research Online (London School of Economics and Political Science) (submittedVersion)
- UWE Research Repository (UWE Bristol) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- London School of Economics and Political Science Theses Online (London School of Economics and Political Science) (submittedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Business, Management and Accounting › Management of Technology and Innovation › Entrepreneurship Studies and Influences
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Finance › Financial Literacy, Pension, Retirement Analysis
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › General Decision Sciences › Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics
- Keywords
- self-employment, financial optimism, entrepreneurship, self-employed workers, financial well-being, psychological dispositions
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