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Using Attributional Life Cycle Assessment to Estimate Climate‐Change Mitigation Benefits Misleads Policy Makers
Open accessAbstract
Summary: Life cycle assessment (LCA) is generally described as a tool for environmental decision making. Results from attributional LCA (ALCA), the most commonly used LCA method, often are presented in a way that suggests that policy decisions based on these results will yield the quantitative benefits estimated by ALCA. For example, ALCAs of biofuels are routinely used to suggest that the implementation of one alternative (say, a biofuel) will cause an X% change in greenhouse gas emissions, compared with a baseline (typically gasoline). However, because of several simplifications inherent in ALCA, the method, in fact, is not predictive of real‐world impacts on climate change, and hence the usual quantitative interpretation of ALCA results is not valid. A conceptually superior approach, consequential LCA (CLCA), avoids many of the limitations of ALCA, but because it is meant to model actual changes in the real world, CLCA results are scenario dependent and uncertain. These limitations mean that even the best practical CLCAs cannot produce definitive quantitative estimates of actual environmental outcomes. Both forms of LCA, however, can yield valuable insights about potential environmental effects, and CLCA can support robust decision making. By openly recognizing the limitations and understanding the appropriate uses of LCA as discussed here, practitioners and researchers can help policy makers implement policies that are less likely to have perverse effects and more likely to lead to effective environmental policies, including climate mitigation strategies.
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Metadata
- Authors
- Plevin, R. J., Delucchi, M. A., & Creutzig, F.
- Affiliations
- University of California, Davis (US)
- Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (DE)
- Corresponding author
- Plevin, Richard J.
- Venue
- Journal of Industrial Ecology
- Published
- 2013-11-08
- Volume
- 18
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 73-83
- ISSN
- 1088-1980 (ISSN-L)
- 1530-9290
- OpenAlex
- W1648472913
- Cited by
- 425
- References
- 112
- Citations by year
- 2026: 26 · 2025: 26 · 2024: 25 · 2023: 31 · 2022: 30 · 2021: 35 · 2020: 28 · 2019: 34 · 2018: 37 · 2017: 40 · 2016: 44 · 2015: 29 · 2014: 39 · 2013: 1
- FWCI
- 31.24
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- Journal of Industrial Ecology (publishedVersion)
- Publication Database PIK (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
- Advanced Low Carbon Technology Research and Development Program
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Environmental Engineering › Environmental Impact and Sustainability
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecology › Agriculture Sustainability and Environmental Impact
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Climate Change Policy and Economics
- Keywords
- attributional life cycle assessment, consequential life cycle assessment, climate change mitigation, greenhouse gas emissions, biofuels, environmental policy, robust decision making, uncertainty, environmental decision-making
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
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