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Using Attributional Life Cycle Assessment to Estimate Climate‐Change Mitigation Benefits Misleads Policy Makers

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Plevin, Richard J., Delucchi, Mark A., Creutzig, Felix·2014·Journal of Industrial Ecology

DOI 10.1111/jiec.12074

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Abstract

Summary: Life cycle assessment (LCA) is generally described as a tool for environmental decision making. Results from attributional LCA (ALCA), the most commonly used LCA method, often are presented in a way that suggests that policy decisions based on these results will yield the quantitative benefits estimated by ALCA. For example, ALCAs of biofuels are routinely used to suggest that the implementation of one alternative (say, a biofuel) will cause an X% change in greenhouse gas emissions, compared with a baseline (typically gasoline). However, because of several simplifications inherent in ALCA, the method, in fact, is not predictive of real‐world impacts on climate change, and hence the usual quantitative interpretation of ALCA results is not valid. A conceptually superior approach, consequential LCA (CLCA), avoids many of the limitations of ALCA, but because it is meant to model actual changes in the real world, CLCA results are scenario dependent and uncertain. These limitations mean that even the best practical CLCAs cannot produce definitive quantitative estimates of actual environmental outcomes. Both forms of LCA, however, can yield valuable insights about potential environmental effects, and CLCA can support robust decision making. By openly recognizing the limitations and understanding the appropriate uses of LCA as discussed here, practitioners and researchers can help policy makers implement policies that are less likely to have perverse effects and more likely to lead to effective environmental policies, including climate mitigation strategies.

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Authors: Plevin, R. J., Delucchi, M. A., & Creutzig, F.
Affiliations: University of California, Davis (US)
Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (DE)
Corresponding author: Plevin, Richard J.
ORCID: Plevin, Richard J.
Delucchi, Mark A.
Creutzig, Felix
Venue: Journal of Industrial Ecology
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Published: 2013-11-08
Volume: 18
Issue: 1
Pages: 73-83
ISSN: 1088-1980 (ISSN-L)
1530-9290
DOI: 10.1111/jiec.12074
OpenAlex: W1648472913
Cited by: 425
References: 112
Citations by year: 2026: 26 · 2025: 26 · 2024: 25 · 2023: 31 · 2022: 30 · 2021: 35 · 2020: 28 · 2019: 34 · 2018: 37 · 2017: 40 · 2016: 44 · 2015: 29 · 2014: 39 · 2013: 1
FWCI: 31.24
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: bronze
doi.org
Licence: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor (vor)
Locations: Journal of Industrial Ecology (publishedVersion)
Publication Database PIK (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)) (submittedVersion)
Funders: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Advanced Low Carbon Technology Research and Development Program
Topics: Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Environmental Engineering › Environmental Impact and Sustainability
Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecology › Agriculture Sustainability and Environmental Impact
Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Climate Change Policy and Economics
Keywords: attributional life cycle assessment, consequential life cycle assessment, climate change mitigation, greenhouse gas emissions, biofuels, environmental policy, robust decision making, uncertainty, environmental decision-making

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Using Attributional Life Cycle Assessment to Estimate Climate‐Change Mitigation Benefits Misleads Policy Makers

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