The DOI matches its Crossref record; 2 of the 2 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Personal Experiences and Expectations about Aggregate Outcomes
Abstract
Using novel survey data, we document that individuals extrapolate from recent personal experiences when forming expectations about aggregate economic outcomes. Recent locally experienced house price movements affect expectations about future U.S. house price changes and higher experienced house price volatility causes respondents to report a wider distribution over expected U.S. house price movements. When we exploit within‐individual variation in employment status, we find that individuals who personally experience unemployment become more pessimistic about future nationwide unemployment. The extent of extrapolation is unrelated to how informative personal experiences are, is inconsistent with risk adjustment, and is more pronounced for less sophisticated individuals.
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Cites
Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases
(1982) · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511809477 · Cited by 8,240
Unrealistic optimism about future life events
Weinstein, N. D. (1980) · Journal of Personality and Social Psychology · doi:10.1037/0022-3514.39.5.806 · Cited by 4,999
Cited by
The impact of COVID-19 on student experiences and expectations: Evidence from a survey
Aucejo, E. M., French, J., Ugalde Araya, M. P., & Zafar, B. (2020) · Journal of Public Economics · doi:10.1016/j.jpubeco.2020.104271 · Cited by 895
Self-citationDoes Climate Change Affect Real Estate Prices? Only If You Believe In It
Baldauf, M., Garlappi, L., & Yannelis, C. (2020) · The Review of Financial Studies · doi:10.1093/rfs/hhz073 · Cited by 713
Gomes, F., Haliassos, M., & Ramadorai, T. (2021) · Journal of Economic Literature · doi:10.1257/jel.20201461 · Cited by 396
Metadata
- Authors
- KUCHLER, T., & ZAFAR, B.
- Venue
- The Journal of Finance
- Publisher
- Wiley
- Published
- 2019-07-09
- Volume
- 74
- Issue
- 5
- Pages
- 2491-2542
- ISSN
- 0022-1082 (ISSN-L)
- 1540-6261
- OpenAlex
- W3023537665
- Cited by
- 371
- References
- 2
- FWCI
- 31.09
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
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Semantic Scholar’s data is described in: Kinney, R., et al. (2023). The Semantic Scholar Open Data Platform. arXiv:2301.10140.
