Unrealistic optimism about future life events

Weinstein, Neil D.

doi:10.1037/0022-3514.39.5.806

Cited by 4,999Optimism, Hope, and Well-beingDecision-Making and Behavioral EconomicsRisk Perception and Management

Unrealistic optimism about future life events

Weinstein, Neil D.·1980·Journal of Personality and Social Psychology

DOI 10.1037/0022-3514.39.5.806

Open this paper in CoChat — free account

Abstract

Two studies investigated the tendency of people to be unrealistically optimistic about future life events. In Study 1, 258 college students estimated how much their own chances of experiencing 42 events differed from the chances of their classmates. Overall, they rated their own chances to be above average for posi-tive events and below average for negative events, ps<.001. Cognitive and motivational considerations led to predictions that degree of desirability, per-ceived probability, personal experience, perceived controllability, and stereotype salience would influence the amount of optimistic bias evoked by different events. All predictions were supported, although the pattern of effects differed for positive and negative events. Study 2 tested the idea that people are un-realistically optimistic because they focus on factors that improve their own chances of achieving desirable outcomes and fail to realize that others may have just as many factors in their favor. Students listed the factors that they thought influenced their own chances of experiencing eight future events. When such lists were read by a second group of students, the amount of unrealistic opti-mism shown by this second group for the same eight events decreased signifi-cantly, although it was not eliminated. According to popular belief, people tend to think they are invulnerable. They expect others to be victims of misfortune, not them-selves. Such ideas imply not merely a hopeful outlook on life, but an error in judgment that can be labeled unrealistic optimism. It is usually impossible to demonstrate that an individual's optimistic expectations about the future are unrealistic. An individual might be quite correct in asserting that his or her chances of experiencing a negative event are less than average. On a group basis, however, it is relatively easy to test for an optimistic bias. If all people claim their changes of ex-periencing a negative event are less than

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.1037/0022-3514.39.5.806

Cites

26 of 26 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

Statistics

Recomputing p-values needs the paper’s full text.

Claims the paper makes

This paper’s full text isn’t openly available, so its claims and self-check weren’t run. The registry and citation checks still apply.

Claims other papers make about this one

Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?

In the optimism/pessimism classification, there seems to be a bias toward optimism, typically expressed in people believing they will live longer than average, underestimating divorce chances, health problems and risks such as car accidents.
“In the optimism/pessimism classification, there seems to be a bias toward optimism, typically expressed in people believing that they will live longer than average, underestimating divorce chances, health problems and risks such as car accidents (Weinstein, 1980).”
From Individual consistency in the accuracy and distribution of confidence judgments (2016) · cites this paper as Weinstein, 1980

Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases
Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1975) · Utility, Probability, and Human Decision Making · doi:10.1007/978-94-010-1834-0_8 · Cited by 22,650 · see citing works
Availability: A heuristic for judging frequency and probability
Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1973) · Cognitive Psychology · doi:10.1016/0010-0285(73)90033-9 · Cited by 9,984 · cited 1× · see citing works
“Personal experience should make it easier to recall past occurrences of the event and to imagine situations in which the event could occur, leading to greater perceived probability through the mechanism of "availability" (Tversky & Kahneman, 1973, 1974).”
Background
Subjective probability: A judgment of representativeness
Kahneman, D. J., & Tversky, A. (1972) · Cognitive Psychology · doi:10.1016/0010-0285(72)90016-3 · Cited by 4,880 · see citing works
The illusion of control.
Langer, E. J. (1975) · Journal of Personality and Social Psychology · doi:10.1037/0022-3514.32.2.311 · Cited by 3,909 · see citing works
Attribution: Perceiving the Causes of Behavior
JONES, E. E. (1987) · Medical Entomology and Zoology · Cited by 3,775 · see citing works
The “false consensus effect”: An egocentric bias in social perception and attribution processes
Ross, L., Greene, D., & House, P. (1977) · Journal of Experimental Social Psychology · doi:10.1016/0022-1031(77)90049-x · Cited by 3,139 · see citing works
Self-serving biases in the attribution of causality: Fact or fiction?
Miller, D. T., & Ross, M. (1975) · Psychological Bulletin · doi:10.1037/h0076486 · Cited by 2,575 · see citing works
Are we all less risky and more skillful than our fellow drivers?
Svenson, O. (1981) · Acta Psychologica · doi:10.1016/0001-6918(81)90005-6 · Cited by 1,969 · see citing works
Judged frequency of lethal events.
Lichtenstein, S., Slovic, P., Fischhoff, B., Layman, M., & Combs, B. (1978) · Journal of Experimental Psychology Human Learning & Memory · doi:10.1037/0278-7393.4.6.551 · Cited by 1,539 · see citing works
Intuitive prediction: Biases and corrective procedures
Kahneman, D. J., & Tversky, A. (1982) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511809477.031 · Cited by 1,162 · see citing works
Heads I win, tails it's chance: The illusion of control as a function of the sequence of outcomes in a purely chance task.
Langer, E. J., & Roth, J. (1975) · Journal of Personality and Social Psychology · doi:10.1037/0022-3514.32.6.951 · Cited by 805 · see citing works
Progress in social psychology
Fishbein, M. (1980) · Lawrence Erlbaum Associates eBooks · Cited by 760 · see citing works
Egocentric Biases in Availability and Attribution
Ross, M., & Sicoly, F. (2004) · Psychology Press eBooks · doi:10.4324/9780203496398-12 · Cited by 660 · see citing works
Causal schemas in judgments under uncertainty
Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. J. (1982) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511809477.009 · Cited by 605 · see citing works
Natural Hazards: Local, National, Global
Zobler, L., & White, G. F. (1976) · Geographical Review · doi:10.2307/213594 · Cited by 604 · see citing works
Using a repeated measures ANOVA to analyze the data from a pretest–posttest design: a potentially confusing task
Huck, S. W., & McLean, R. A. (1975) · Psychological Bulletin · doi:10.1037/h0076767 · Cited by 449 · see citing works
Health-Protective Behavior: An Exploratory Study
Harris, D. M., & Guten, S. (1979) · Journal of Health and Social Behavior · doi:10.2307/2136475 · Cited by 422 · see citing works
Stated expectations as functions of probability and desirability of outcomes
IRWIN, F. W. (1953) · Journal of Personality · doi:10.1111/j.1467-6494.1953.tb01775.x · Cited by 281 · see citing works
THE EFFECT OF PROBABILITY, DESIRABILITY, AND "PRIVILEGE" ON THE STATED EXPECTATIONS OF CHILDREN*
Marks, R. W. (1951) · Journal of Personality · doi:10.1111/j.1467-6494.1951.tb01107.x · Cited by 234 · see citing works
A National Study of Health Beliefs
Kirscht, J. P., Haefner, D. P., Kegeles, S. S., & Rosenstock, I. M. (1966) · Journal of Health and Human Behavior · doi:10.2307/2948771 · Cited by 233 · see citing works
Decision processes, rationality and adjustment to natural hazards
Slovic, P., Kunreuther, H., & White, G. F. (1974) · Scholars' Bank (University of Oregon) · Cited by 226 · see citing works
The major determinants of the prediction of social events.
McGregor, D. (1938) · Journal of Abnormal & Social Psychology · doi:10.1037/h0062931 · Cited by 148 · see citing works
Car crashes
Robertson, L. S. (1977) · Journal of Community Health · doi:10.1007/bf01674235 · Cited by 98 · see citing works
I.—THE PSYCHOLOGY OF BELIEF
James, W. (1889) · Mind · doi:10.1093/mind/xiv.55.321 · Cited by 81 · see citing works
The prediction of social events.
Cantril, H. (1938) · Journal of Abnormal & Social Psychology · doi:10.1037/h0063206 · Cited by 62 · see citing works
The effect of outcome desirability on information required for decisions
Morlock, H. C. (1967) · Systems Research and Behavioral Science · doi:10.1002/bs.3830120404 · Cited by 29 · see citing works

Flagged first, then by citations

Sorted by citations

The case for motivated reasoning.
Kunda, Z. (1990) · Psychological Bulletin · doi:10.1037/0033-2909.108.3.480 · Cited by 9,022 · see citing works
Illusion and well‐being: A social psychological perspective on mental health
Taylor, S. E., & Brown, J. D. (1988) · Psychological Bulletin · doi:10.1037/0033-2909.103.2.193 · Cited by 7,814 · see citing works
Bad Is Stronger Than Good
Baumeister, R. F., Bratslavsky, E., Finkenauer, C., & Vohs, K. D. (2001) · Review of General Psychology · doi:10.1037/1089-2680.5.4.323 · Cited by 7,678 · see citing works
Confirmation Bias: A Ubiquitous Phenomenon in Many Guises
Nickerson, R. S. (1998) · Review of General Psychology · doi:10.1037/1089-2680.2.2.175 · Cited by 7,267 · see citing works
Unskilled and unaware of it: How difficulties in recognizing one's own incompetence lead to inflated self-assessments
Kruger, J., & Dunning, D. (1999) · Journal of Personality and Social Psychology · doi:10.1037/0022-3514.77.6.1121 · Cited by 7,731 · see citing works
Extensional versus intuitive reasoning: The conjunction fallacy in probability judgment.
Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1983) · Psychological Review · doi:10.1037/0033-295x.90.4.293 · Cited by 3,991 · see citing works
Hopelessness depression: A theory-based subtype of depression.
Abramson, L. Y., Metalsky, G. I., & Alloy, L. B. (1989) · Psychological Review · doi:10.1037//0033-295x.96.2.358 · Cited by 3,722 · see citing works
Temporal construal.
Trope, Y., & Liberman, N. (2003) · Psychological Review · doi:10.1037/0033-295x.110.3.403 · Cited by 3,006 · see citing works
The trouble with overconfidence.
Moore, D. A., & Healy, P. J. (2008) · Psychological Review · doi:10.1037/0033-295x.115.2.502 · Cited by 2,358 · see citing works
“Clinical versus Actuarial Judgment.”
Dawes, R. M., Faust, D., & Meehl, P. E. (1989) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.2648573 · Cited by 2,298 · see citing works
Is there a universal need for positive self-regard?
Heine, S. J., Lehman, D. R., Markus, H. R., & Kitayama, S. (1999) · Psychological Review · doi:10.1037/0033-295x.106.4.766 · Cited by 2,247 · see citing works
The evolution of foresight: What is mental time travel, and is it unique to humans?
Suddendorf, T., & Corballis, M. C. (2007) · Behavioral and Brain Sciences · doi:10.1017/s0140525x07001975 · Cited by 2,031 · see citing works
Flawed Self-Assessment: Implications for Health, Education, and the Workplace
Dunning, D., Heath, C., & Suls, J. M. (2004) · Psychological Science in the Public Interest · doi:10.1111/j.1529-1006.2004.00018.x · Cited by 1,865 · see citing works
Belief and feeling: Evidence for an accessibility model of emotional self-report.
Robinson, M. D., & Clore, G. L. (2002) · Psychological Bulletin · doi:10.1037/0033-2909.128.6.934 · Cited by 1,806 · see citing works
Individual differences in social comparison: Development of a scale of social comparison orientation.
Gibbons, F. X., & Buunk, B. P. (1999) · Journal of Personality and Social Psychology · doi:10.1037/0022-3514.76.1.129 · Cited by 1,813 · see citing works
Risk and Rationality in Adolescent Decision Making: Implications for Theory, Practice, and Public Policy
Reyna, V. F., & Farley, F. (2006) · Psychological Science in the Public Interest · doi:10.1111/j.1529-1006.2006.00026.x · Cited by 1,244 · see citing works
The optimism bias
Sharot, T. (2011) · Current Biology · doi:10.1016/j.cub.2011.10.030 · Cited by 1,187 · see citing works
Support theory: a nonextensional representation of subjective probability
Tversky, A., & Koehler, D. J. (1994) · Psychological Review · doi:10.1037/0033-295x.101.4.547 · Cited by 1,167 · see citing works
Mental contamination and mental correction: Unwanted influences on judgments and evaluations.
Wilson, T. D., & Brekke, N. (1994) · Psychological Bulletin · doi:10.1037/0033-2909.116.1.117 · Cited by 1,157 · see citing works
The benefits of positive illusions: idealization and the construction of satisfaction in close relationships.
Murray, S. L., Holmes, J. G., & Griffin, D. W. (1996) · Journal of Personality and Social Psychology · doi:10.1037/0022-3514.70.1.79 · Cited by 1,134 · see citing works
Motivated inference: Self‐serving generation and evaluation of causal theories
Kunda, Z. (1987) · Journal of Personality and Social Psychology · doi:10.1037/0022-3514.53.4.636 · Cited by 1,059 · see citing works
Explaining Bargaining Impasse: The Role of Self-Serving Biases
Babcock, L., & Loewenstein, G. (1997) · Journal of Economic Perspectives · doi:10.1257/jep.11.1.109 · Cited by 1,071 · see citing works
Risk perceptions and health behavior
Ferrer, R. A., & Klein, W. M. (2015) · Current Opinion in Psychology · doi:10.1016/j.copsyc.2015.03.012 · Cited by 1,034 · see citing works
<i>Episodic Simulation of Future Events</i>: <i>Concepts, Data, and Applications</i>
Schacter, D. L., Addis, D. R., & Buckner, R. L. (2008) · Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1196/annals.1440.001 · Cited by 840 · see citing works
Phenomenal characteristics associated with projecting oneself back into the past and forward into the future: Influence of valence and temporal distance
D’Argembeau, A., & Van der Linden, M. (2004) · Consciousness and Cognition · doi:10.1016/j.concog.2004.07.007 · Cited by 792 · see citing works
Ambiguity and self-evaluation: The role of idiosyncratic trait definitions in self-serving assessments of ability.
Dunning, D., Meyerowitz, J. A., & Holzberg, A. D. (1989) · Journal of Personality and Social Psychology · doi:10.1037/0022-3514.57.6.1082 · Cited by 758 · see citing works
How unrealistic optimism is maintained in the face of reality
Sharot, T., Korn, C. W., & Dolan, R. J. (2011) · Nature Neuroscience · doi:10.1038/nn.2949 · Cited by 729 · see citing works
What is social comparison and how should we study it?
Wood, J. V. (1996) · Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin · doi:10.1177/0146167296225009 · Cited by 697 · see citing works
Biases in social comparative judgments: The role of nonmotivated factors in above-average and comparative-optimism effects
Chambers, J. R., & Windschitl, P. D. (2004) · Psychological Bulletin · doi:10.1037/0033-2909.130.5.813 · Cited by 547 · see citing works
Self as Cultural Product: An Examination of East Asian and North American Selves
Heine, S. J. (2001) · Journal of Personality · doi:10.1111/1467-6494.696168 · Cited by 531 · see citing works
Optimism is associated with mood, coping, and immune change in response to stress.
Segerstrom, S. C., Taylor, S. E., Kemeny, M. E., & Fahey, J. L. (1998) · Journal of Personality and Social Psychology · doi:10.1037/0022-3514.74.6.1646 · Cited by 527 · see citing works
Calorie Labeling And Food Choices: A First Look At The Effects On Low-Income People In New York City: Calorie information on menus appears to increase awareness of calorie content, but not necessarily the number of calories people purchase.
Elbel, B., Kersh, R., Brescoll, V. L., & Dixon, L. B. (2009) · Health Affairs · doi:10.1377/hlthaff.28.6.w1110 · Cited by 496 · see citing works
Individual differences in the phenomenology of mental time travel: The effect of vivid visual imagery and emotion regulation strategies
D’Argembeau, A., & Van der Linden, M. (2006) · Consciousness and Cognition · doi:10.1016/j.concog.2005.09.001 · Cited by 490 · see citing works
Emotional selection in memes: The case of urban legends.
Heath, C., Bell, C., & Sternberg, E. (2001) · Journal of Personality and Social Psychology · doi:10.1037/0022-3514.81.6.1028 · Cited by 588 · see citing works
The role of privacy fatigue in online privacy behavior
Choi, H., Park, J., & Jung, Y. (2018) · Computers in Human Behavior · doi:10.1016/j.chb.2017.12.001 · Cited by 427 · see citing works
Agreeable fancy or disagreeable truth? Reconciling self-enhancement and self-verification.
Swann, W. B., Pelham, B. W., & Krull, D. S. (1989) · Journal of Personality and Social Psychology · doi:10.1037/0022-3514.57.5.782 · Cited by 584 · see citing works
Past, present, and future of computer-tailored nutrition education
Brug, J., Oenema, A., & Campbell, M. (2003) · The American Journal of Clinical Nutrition · doi:10.1093/ajcn/77.4.1028s · Cited by 392 · see citing works
The curse of expertise: The effects of expertise and debiasing methods on prediction of novice performance.
Hinds, P. J. (1999) · Journal of Experimental Psychology: Applied · doi:10.1037/1076-898x.5.2.205 · Cited by 397 · see citing works
How we see ourselves and how we see others
Pronin, E. (2008) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1154199 · Cited by 353 · see citing works
Forming beliefs: Why valence matters
Sharot, T., & Garrett, N. (2016) · Trends in Cognitive Sciences · doi:10.1016/j.tics.2015.11.002 · Cited by 345 · see citing works
Consumer acceptance of functional foods: Issues for the future
Frewer, L., Scholderer, J., & Lambert, N. (2003) · British Food Journal · doi:10.1108/00070700310506263 · Cited by 340 · see citing works
Depression is related to an absence of optimistically biased belief updating about future life events
Korn, C. W., Sharot, T., Walter, H., Heekeren, H. R., & Dolan, R. J. (2014) · Psychological Medicine · doi:10.1017/s0033291713001074 · Cited by 334 · see citing works
Future anxiety: Concept, measurement, and preliminary research
Zaleski, Z. (1996) · Personality and Individual Differences · doi:10.1016/0191-8869(96)00070-0 · Cited by 319 · see citing works
Food Safety in Home Kitchens: A Synthesis of the Literature
Byrd-Bredbenner, C., Berning, J., Martin-Biggers, J., & Quick, V. (2013) · International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health · doi:10.3390/ijerph10094060 · Cited by 262 · see citing works
Depression: a decision-theoretic analysis
Huys, Q. J. M., Daw, N. D., & Dayan, P. (2015) · Annual Review of Neuroscience · doi:10.1146/annurev-neuro-071714-033928 · Cited by 221 · see citing works
Perceptions of risk and vulnerability
Millstein, S. G., & Halpern-Felsher, B. L. (2002) · Journal of Adolescent Health · doi:10.1016/s1054-139x(02)00412-3 · Cited by 238 · see citing works
When Words Sweat: Identifying Signals for Loan Default in the Text of Loan Applications
Netzer, O., Lemaire, A., & Herzenstein, M. (2019) · Journal of Marketing Research · doi:10.1177/0022243719852959 · Cited by 238 · see citing works
Believing what we do not believe: acquiescence to superstitious beliefs and other powerful intuitions
Risen, J. L. (2016) · Psychological Review · doi:10.1037/rev0000017 · Cited by 221 · see citing works
How we feel is a matter of time: Relationships between time perspectives and mood
Stolarski, M., Matthews, G., Postek, S., Zimbardo, P. G., & Bitner, J. (2014) · Journal of Happiness Studies · doi:10.1007/s10902-013-9450-y · Cited by 219 · see citing works
Affirmed yet unaware: Exploring the role of awareness in the process of self-affirmation.
Sherman, D. K., Cohen, G. L., Nelson, L. D., Nussbaum, A. D., Bunyan, D. P., & Garcia, J. (2009) · Journal of Personality and Social Psychology · doi:10.1037/a0015451 · Cited by 223 · see citing works
Egocentric definitions of traits and abilities in social judgment
Dunning, D., & Cohen, G. L. (1992) · Journal of Personality and Social Psychology · doi:10.1037/0022-3514.63.3.341 · Cited by 196 · see citing works
Positive orientation: explorations on what is common to life satisfaction, self-esteem, and optimism.
Caprara, G. V., Steca, P., Alessandri, G., Abela, J. R., & McWhinnie, C. M. (2010) · Epidemiologia e Psichiatria Sociale · doi:10.1017/s1121189x00001615 · Cited by 189 · see citing works
Individual consistency in the accuracy and distribution of confidence judgments
Ais, J., Zylberberg, A., Barttfeld, P., & Sigman, M. (2016) · Cognition · doi:10.1016/j.cognition.2015.10.006 · Cited by 174 · see citing works
Managing oral hygiene as a risk factor for periodontal disease: a systematic review of psychological approaches to behaviour change for improved plaque control in periodontal management
Newton, J. T., & Asimakopoulou, K. (2015) · Journal of Clinical Periodontology · doi:10.1111/jcpe.12356 · Cited by 170 · see citing works
Psychological interventions to improve adherence to oral hygiene instructions in adults with periodontal diseases
Renz, A., Ide, M., Newton, T., Robinson, P., & Smith, D. (2007) · Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews · doi:10.1002/14651858.cd005097.pub2 · Cited by 164 · see citing works
Retracted
Frequency, characteristics, and perceived functions of emotional future thinking in daily life
Barsics, C., Van der Linden, M., & D'Argembeau, A. (2016) · Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology · doi:10.1080/17470218.2015.1051560 · Cited by 152 · see citing works
Distorted expectancy coding in problem gambling: is the addictive in the anticipation?
van Holst, R. J., Veltman, D. J., Büchel, C., van den Brink, W., & Goudriaan, A. E. (2012) · Biological Psychiatry · doi:10.1016/j.biopsych.2011.12.030 · Cited by 155 · see citing works
The Bias That Divides Us: The Science and Politics of Myside Thinking
Stanovich, K. E. (2021) · doi:10.7551/mitpress/13367.001.0001 · Cited by 152 · see citing works
The media can have more than an impersonal impact: The case of AIDS risk perceptions and behavior
Snyder, L. B., & Rouse, R. A. (1995) · Health Communication · doi:10.1207/s15327027hc0702_3 · Cited by 131 · see citing works
Inside the Judicial Mind
Guthrie, C., Rachlinski, J. J., & Wistrich, A. J. (2001) · doi:10.2139/ssrn.257634 · Cited by 123 · see citing works
Human development of the ability to learn from bad news
Moutsiana, C., Garrett, N., Clarke, R. C., Lotto, R. B., Blakemore, S.-J., & Sharot, T. (2013) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1305631110 · Cited by 119 · see citing works
The headwinds/tailwinds asymmetry: An availability bias in assessments of barriers and blessings.
Davidai, S., & Gilovich, T. (2016) · Journal of Personality and Social Psychology · doi:10.1037/pspa0000066 · Cited by 107 · see citing works
The Process of Leaving an Abusive Relationship: The Role of Risk Assessments and Decision-Certainty
Martin, A. J., Berenson, K. R., Griffing, S., Sage, R. E., Madry, L., Bingham, L. E., & Primm, B. J. (2000) · Journal of Family Violence · doi:10.1023/a:1007515514298 · Cited by 75 · see citing works
Perceived partner responsiveness promotes intellectual humility
Reis, H. T., Lee, K. Y., O'Keefe, S. D., & Clark, M. S. (2018) · Journal of Experimental Social Psychology · doi:10.1016/j.jesp.2018.05.006 · Cited by 70 · see citing works
Action is enabled by systematic misrepresentations
Wiese, W. (2017) · Erkenntnis · doi:10.1007/s10670-016-9867-x · Cited by 60 · see citing works
Strategically delusional
Soldà, A., Ke, C., Page, L., & von Hippel, W. (2020) · Experimental Economics · doi:10.1007/s10683-019-09636-9 · Cited by 56 · see citing works
Determinants of Behavioral Responses to Online Privacy: The Effects of Concern, Risk Beliefs, Self-Efficacy, and Communication Sources on Self-Protection Strategies
Hichang, C. (2010) · Journal of Information Privacy and Security · doi:10.1080/15536548.2010.10855879 · Cited by 44 · see citing works
Perceived vulnerability to illness threats: The role of disease type, risk factor perception and attributions
Lek, Y.-Y., & Bishop, G. D. (1995) · Psychology & Health · doi:10.1080/08870449508401950 · Cited by 39 · see citing works
Subarachnoid Hemorrhage Patients' Fears of Recurrence Are Related to the Presence of Posttraumatic Stress Disorder
Noble, A. J., Baisch, S., Covey, J., Mukerji, N., Nath, F., & Schenk, T. (2011) · Neurosurgery · doi:10.1227/neu.0b013e318216047e · Cited by 35 · see citing works
The emotional well-being of journalists exposed to traumatic events: A mapping review
Osmann, J., Dvorkin, J., Inbar, Y., Page-Gould, E., & Feinstein, A. (2021) · Media, War & Conflict · doi:10.1177/1750635219895998 · Cited by 32 · see citing works
Unrealistic Optimism Regarding Artificial Intelligence Opportunities in Human Resource Management
Weber, P. (2023) · International Journal of Knowledge Management · doi:10.4018/ijkm.317217 · Cited by 31 · see citing works
Prescription drug advertising, disease knowledge, and older adults’ optimistic bias about the future risk of alzheimer’s disease
Park, J. S., & Ju, I. (2016) · Health Communication · doi:10.1080/10410236.2014.957375 · Cited by 29 · see citing works
Relationships between Password Choices, Perceptions of Risk and Security Expertise
Creese, S., Hodges, D., Jamison-Powell, S., & Whitty, M. (2013) · Lecture Notes in Computer Science · doi:10.1007/978-3-642-39345-7_9 · Cited by 29 · see citing works
Examining the trade‐off between confidence and optimism in future forecasts
Stavrova, O., & Evans, A. M. (2019) · Journal of Behavioral Decision Making · doi:10.1002/bdm.2087 · Cited by 12 · see citing works
How to Guard Against Fixation? Demonstrating Individual Vulnerability is More Effective Than Warning of General Risk
Neroni, M. A., & Crilly, N. (2021) · The Journal of Creative Behavior · doi:10.1002/jocb.465 · Cited by 8 · see citing works

Authors: Weinstein, N. D.
Affiliations: Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey (US)
Corresponding author: Weinstein, Neil D.
Venue: Journal of Personality and Social Psychology
Publisher: American Psychological Association (APA)
Published: 1980-11
Volume: 39
Issue: 5
Pages: 806-820
ISSN: 0022-3514 (ISSN-L)
1939-1315
DOI: 10.1037/0022-3514.39.5.806
OpenAlex: W2145046219
Cited by: 4,999
References: 26
Citations by year: 2026: 110 · 2025: 159 · 2024: 175 · 2023: 180 · 2022: 200 · 2021: 226 · 2020: 230 · 2019: 180 · 2018: 199 · 2017: 173 · 2016: 176 · 2015: 227 · 2014: 201 · 2013: 195 · 2012: 222
FWCI: 20.76
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: closed
Locations: Journal of Personality and Social Psychology (publishedVersion)
Topics: Social Sciences › Psychology › Applied Psychology › Optimism, Hope, and Well-being
Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › General Decision Sciences › Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics
Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Risk Perception and Management
Keywords: optimism bias, self-other differences, perceived probability, perceived controllability, positive and negative events, self-protection

About these checks

Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.

Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.

Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.

What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›

Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review

Unrealistic optimism about future life events

Abstract

Integrity signals

Claims the paper makes

Claims other papers make about this one

Cites

Cited by

Related

Record

About these checks