Visualization in Bayesian Workflow
Open accessAbstract
Bayesian data analysis is about more than just computing a posterior distribution, and Bayesian visualization is about more than trace plots of Markov chains. Practical Bayesian data analysis, like all data analysis, is an iterative process of model building, inference, model checking and evaluation, and model expansion. Visualization is helpful in each of these stages of the Bayesian workflow and it is indispensable when drawing inferences from the types of modern, high dimensional models that are used by applied researchers.
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Chain convergence was assessed using Rhat values < 1.1 and posterior predictive checks.
“Chain convergence was assessed using Rhat values < 1.1 and posterior predictive checks (Gelman and Rubin 1992, Gabry et al. 2019).”
From Mild traumatic brain injury alters function in the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex: a TMS-EEG study (2025) · cites this paper as Gabry et al. 2019
Section 4 (p. 6) identifies R-hat as a numerical summary used in MCMC diagnostics, but does not give a cutoff of < 1.1. Section 5 (p. 8) describes posterior predictive checks as evaluating model fit, not chain convergence. (LLM, conf=0.87)
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Self-citationggplot2: Elegant Graphics for Data Analysis
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Schad, D. J., Betancourt, M., & Vasishth, S. (2021) · Psychological Methods · doi:10.1037/met0000275 · Cited by 252 · see citing works
Self-citationThe use of Bayesian priors in Ecology: The good, the bad and the not great
Banner, K. M., Irvine, K. M., & Rodhouse, T. J. (2020) · Methods in Ecology and Evolution · doi:10.1111/2041-210x.13407 · Cited by 135 · see citing works
Saber, M., Giordano, K. R., Hur, Y., Ortiz, J. B., Morrison, H., Godbout, J. P., Murphy, S. M., Lifshitz, J., & Rowe, R. K. (2020) · European Journal of Neuroscience · doi:10.1111/ejn.14611 · Cited by 46 · see citing works
Modrák, M., Moon, A. H., Kim, S., Bürkner, P., Huurre, N., Faltejsková, K., Gelman, A., & Vehtari, A. (2025) · Bayesian Analysis · doi:10.1214/23-ba1404 · Cited by 42 · see citing works
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“We evaluated these models using posterior predictive checks,[72,73] which simulated the models’ predictions”
Can we decode phonetic features in inner speech using surface electromyography?
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High spatial frequency filtered primes hastens happy faces categorization in autistic adults
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Mild traumatic brain injury alters function in the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex: a TMS-EEG study
Moore, E., Webb, E., Sasaki, R., Rogasch, N. C., Foo, N., Semmler, J. G., & Opie, G. M. (2025) · doi:10.1101/2025.05.22.655676 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
“Chain convergence was assessed using Rhat values < 1.1 and posterior predictive checks (Gelman and Rubin 1992, Gabry et al. 2019).”
Influential
- Authors
- Gabry, J., Simpson, D., Vehtari, A., Betancourt, M., & Gelman, A.
- Affiliations
- Columbia University (US)
- University of Toronto (CA)
- Aalto University (FI)
- Corresponding author
- Gabry, Jonah
- Venue
- Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A: Statistics in Society
- Publisher
- Oxford University Press (OUP)
- Published
- 2019-01-15
- Volume
- 182
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 389-402
- ISSN
- 0964-1998 (ISSN-L)
- 1467-985X
- OpenAlex
- W2753599755
- Cited by
- 1,122
- References
- 2
- Citations by year
- 2026: 153 · 2025: 191 · 2024: 166 · 2023: 166 · 2022: 153 · 2021: 148 · 2020: 99 · 2019: 36 · 2018: 6 · 2017: 1 · 2012: 1
- FWCI
- 85.04
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- arxiv.org
- Locations
- Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A (Statistics in Society) (publishedVersion)
- arXiv (Cornell University) (submittedVersion)
- arXiv (Cornell University)
- Funders
- Sloan Foundation
- Columbia University
- US National Science Foundation
- Institute for Education Sciences
- Office of Naval Research
- Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Statistics and Probability › Statistical Methods and Bayesian Inference
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Statistics and Probability › Markov Chains and Monte Carlo Methods
- Physical Sciences › Computer Science › Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition › Data Visualization and Analytics
- Keywords
- model checking, model development, model evaluation, high-dimensional models, posterior distribution
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