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Stratospheric Harbingers of Anomalous Weather Regimes
Abstract
Observations show that large variations in the strength of the stratospheric circulation, appearing first above ∼50 kilometers, descend to the lowermost stratosphere and are followed by anomalous tropospheric weather regimes. During the 60 days after the onset of these events, average surface pressure maps resemble closely the Arctic Oscillation pattern. These stratospheric events also precede shifts in the probability distributions of extreme values of the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations, the location of storm tracks, and the local likelihood of mid-latitude storms. Our observations suggest that these stratospheric harbingers may be used as a predictor of tropospheric weather regimes.
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Cited by
The quiet revolution of numerical weather prediction
Bauer, P., Thorpe, A., & Brunet, G. (2015) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature14956 · Cited by 2,729
An overview of the North Atlantic Oscillation
Hurrell, J. W., Kushnir, Y., Ottersen, G., & Visbeck, M. (2003) · Geophysical Monograph Series · doi:10.1029/134gm01 · Cited by 1,955
Tatebe, H., Ogura, T., Nitta, T., Komuro, Y., Ogochi, K., Takemura, T., Sudo, K., Sekiguchi, M., Abe, M., Saito, F., et al. (2019) · Geoscientific Model Development · doi:10.5194/gmd-12-2727-2019 · Cited by 1,121
The Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model Version 6 (WACCM6)
Gettelman, A., Mills, M. J., Kinnison, D. E., Garcia, R. R., Smith, A. K., Marsh, D. R., Tilmes, S., Vitt, F., Bardeen, C. G., McInerny, J., et al. (2019) · Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/2019jd030943 · Cited by 786
Serreze, M. C., & Barry, R. G. (2005) · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511535888 · Cited by 385
Metadata
- Authors
- Baldwin, M. P., & Dunkerton, T. J.
- Venue
- Science
- Published
- 2001-10-19
- Volume
- 294
- Issue
- 5542
- Pages
- 581-584
- ISSN
- 0036-8075 (ISSN-L)
- 1095-9203
- OpenAlex
- W1965765914
- Cited by
- 1,950
- References
- 0
- FWCI
- 37.02
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
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