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Dynamics of the 2001 UK Foot and Mouth Epidemic: Stochastic Dispersal in a Heterogeneous Landscape
Abstract
Foot-and-mouth is one of the world's most economically important livestock diseases. We developed an individual farm–based stochastic model of the current UK epidemic. The fine grain of the epidemiological data reveals the infection dynamics at an unusually high spatiotemporal resolution. We show that the spatial distribution, size, and species composition of farms all influence the observed pattern and regional variability of outbreaks. The other key dynamical component is long-tailed stochastic dispersal of infection, combining frequent local movements with occasional long jumps. We assess the history and possible duration of the epidemic, the performance of control strategies, and general implications for disease dynamics in space and time.
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Citations
Cites
The effects of local spatial structure on epidemiological invasions
Keeling, M. J. (1999) · Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Series B: Biological Sciences · doi:10.1098/rspb.1999.0716 · Cited by 798
Self-citation
Cited by
Appropriate Models for the Management of Infectious Diseases
Wearing, H. J., Rohani, P., & Keeling, M. J. (2005) · PLoS Medicine · doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.0020174 · Cited by 533
Self-citationModeling dynamic and network heterogeneities in the spread of sexually transmitted diseases
Eames, K. T. D., & Keeling, M. J. (2002) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.202244299 · Cited by 478
Self-citationSimulating the Effect of Quarantine on the Spread of the 1918–19 Flu in Central Canada
Sattenspiel, L. (2003) · Bulletin of Mathematical Biology · doi:10.1006/bulm.2002.0317 · Cited by 120
Modelling that shaped the early COVID-19 pandemic response in the UK
Brooks-Pollock, E., Danon, L., Jombart, T., & Pellis, L. (2021) · Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B · doi:10.1098/rstb.2021.0001 · Cited by 76
Metadata
- Authors
- Keeling, M. J., Woolhouse, M. E. J., Shaw, D. J., Matthews, L., Chase-Topping, M., Haydon, D. T., Cornell, S. J., Kappey, J., Wilesmith, J., & Grenfell, B. T.
- Venue
- Science
- Published
- 2001-10-26
- Volume
- 294
- Issue
- 5543
- Pages
- 813-817
- ISSN
- 0036-8075 (ISSN-L)
- 1095-9203
- OpenAlex
- W1984841045
- Cited by
- 880
- References
- 1
- FWCI
- 62.15
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
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- CoChat. (2026). Citation check: Dynamics of the 2001 UK Foot and Mouth Epidemic: Stochastic Dispersal in a Heterogeneous Landscape. https://app.cochat.ai/papers/10.1126/science.1065973
- The paper
- Keeling, M. J., Woolhouse, M. E. J., Shaw, D. J., Matthews, L., Chase-Topping, M., Haydon, D. T., Cornell, S. J., Kappey, J., Wilesmith, J., & Grenfell, B. T. (2001). Dynamics of the 2001 UK Foot and Mouth Epidemic: Stochastic Dispersal in a Heterogeneous Landscape. Science. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1065973
Data sources
Bibliographic data: Semantic Scholar, OpenAlex, Crossref.
Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).
Semantic Scholar’s data is described in: Kinney, R., et al. (2023). The Semantic Scholar Open Data Platform. arXiv:2301.10140.
