Cited by 798Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology ModelsComplex Network Analysis TechniquesStochastic processes and statistical mechanics

The effects of local spatial structure on epidemiological invasions

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Keeling, M. J.·1999·Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Series B: Biological Sciences

Abstract

Predicting the likely success of invasions is vitally important in ecology and especially epidemiology. Whether an organism can successfully invade and persist in the short-term is highly dependent on the spatial correlations that develop in the early stages of invasion. By modelling the correlations between individuals, we are able to understand the role of spatial heterogeneity in invasion dynamics without the need for large-scale computer simulations. Here, a natural methodology is developed for modelling the behaviour of individuals in a fixed network. This formulation is applied to the spread of a disease through a structured network to determine invasion thresholds and some statistical properties of a single epidemic.

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Crossref · 10.1098/rspb.1999.0716

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Authors
Keeling, M. J.
Affiliations
University of Cambridge (GB)
Corresponding author
Keeling, M. J.
Venue
Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Series B: Biological Sciences
Published
1999-04-22
Volume
266
Issue
1421
Pages
859-867
ISSN
  • 0080-4649 (ISSN-L)
  • 0962-8452
  • 1471-2954
OpenAlex
W2030540141
Cited by
798
References
28
Citations by year
2026: 19 · 2025: 27 · 2024: 19 · 2023: 30 · 2022: 23 · 2021: 36 · 2020: 33 · 2019: 30 · 2018: 44 · 2017: 46 · 2016: 35 · 2015: 47 · 2014: 37 · 2013: 41 · 2012: 38
FWCI
9.92
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Locations
  • Proceedings of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences (publishedVersion)
  • PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
Funders
Wellcome Trust
Topics
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models
  • Physical Sciences › Physics and Astronomy › Statistical and Nonlinear Physics › Complex Network Analysis Techniques
  • Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Mathematical Physics › Stochastic processes and statistical mechanics
Keywords
invasion threshold, spatial structure, spatial heterogeneity, epidemic spread, structured networks, disease transmission, agent-based modeling, spatial correlation, epidemic persistence
MeSH terms
Communicable Disease Control, Communicable Diseases, Disease Outbreaks, Ecology, Epidemiology, Humans, Models, Biological, Vaccination

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