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Climate Sensitivity Uncertainty and the Need for Energy Without CO 2 Emission
Abstract
The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change calls for “stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.” Even if we could determine a “safe” level of interference in the climate system, the sensitivity of global mean temperature to increasing atmospheric CO 2 is known perhaps only to a factor of three or less. Here we show how a factor of three uncertainty in climate sensitivity introduces even greater uncertainty in allowable increases in atmospheric CO 2 concentration and allowable CO 2 emissions. Nevertheless, unless climate sensitivity is low and acceptable amounts of climate change are high, climate stabilization will require a massive transition to CO 2 emission–free energy technologies.
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Cited by
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Zhang, Y. P., Ding, S., Mielenz, J. R., Cui, J., Elander, R. T., Laser, M., Himmel, M. E., McMillan, J. R., & Lynd, L. R. (2007) · Biotechnology and Bioengineering · doi:10.1002/bit.21386 · Cited by 589
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Metadata
- Authors
- Caldeira, K., Jain, A. K., & Hoffert, M. I.
- Venue
- Science
- Published
- 2003-03-28
- Volume
- 299
- Issue
- 5615
- Pages
- 2052-2054
- ISSN
- 0036-8075 (ISSN-L)
- 1095-9203
- OpenAlex
- W2012888360
- Cited by
- 291
- References
- 0
- FWCI
- 47.72
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
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- CoChat. (2026). Citation check: Climate Sensitivity Uncertainty and the Need for Energy Without CO 2 Emission. https://app.cochat.ai/papers/10.1126/science.1078938
- The paper
- Caldeira, K., Jain, A. K., & Hoffert, M. I. (2003). Climate Sensitivity Uncertainty and the Need for Energy Without CO 2 Emission. Science. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1078938
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Bibliographic data: Semantic Scholar, OpenAlex, Crossref.
Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).
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