The DOI matches its Crossref record; 17 of the 17 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Reconstructing Past Climate from Noisy Data
Abstract
Empirical reconstructions of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) temperature in the past millennium based on multiproxy records depict small-amplitude variations followed by a clear warming trend in the past two centuries. We use a coupled atmosphere-ocean model simulation of the past 1000 years as a surrogate climate to test the skill of these methods, particularly at multidecadal and centennial time scales. Idealized proxy records are represented by simulated grid-point temperature, degraded with statistical noise. The centennial variability of the NH temperature is underestimated by the regression-based methods applied here, suggesting that past variations may have been at least a factor of 2 larger than indicated by empirical reconstructions.
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Cites
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Cited by
Uncertainty estimates in regional and global observed temperature changes: A new data set from 1850
Brohan, P., Kennedy, J. J., Harris, I., Tett, S. F. B., & Jones, P. D. (2006) · Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/2005jd006548 · Cited by 2,040
Self-citationMoberg, A., Sonechkin, D. M., Holmgren, K., Datsenko, N. M., & Karlén, W. (2005) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature03265 · Cited by 1,632
On the long‐term context for late twentieth century warming
D'Arrigo, R., Wilson, R., & Jacoby, G. (2006) · Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/2005jd006352 · Cited by 494
Potential risks for European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) in a changing climate
Geßler, A., Keitel, C., Kreuzwieser, J., Matyssek, R., Seiler, W., & Rennenberg, H. (2006) · Trees · doi:10.1007/s00468-006-0107-x · Cited by 481
Changes in Surface Water Supply Across Africa with Predicted Climate Change
de Wit, M., & Stankiewicz, J. (2006) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1119929 · Cited by 437
Metadata
- Authors
- von Storch, H., Zorita, E., Jones, J. M., Dimitriev, Y., González-Rouco, F., & Tett, S. F. B.
- Venue
- Science
- Published
- 2004-10-22
- Volume
- 306
- Issue
- 5696
- Pages
- 679-682
- ISSN
- 0036-8075 (ISSN-L)
- 1095-9203
- OpenAlex
- W2142987884
- Cited by
- 466
- References
- 17
- FWCI
- 32.41
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
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- von Storch, H., Zorita, E., Jones, J. M., Dimitriev, Y., González-Rouco, F., & Tett, S. F. B. (2004). Reconstructing Past Climate from Noisy Data. Science. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1096109
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