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The Climate Change Commitment
Open accessAbstract
Even if atmospheric composition were fixed today, global-mean temperature and sea level rise would continue due to oceanic thermal inertia. These constant-composition (CC) commitments and their uncertainties are quantified. Constant-emissions (CE) commitments are also considered. The CC warming commitment could exceed 1°C. The CE warming commitment is 2° to 6°C by the year 2400. For sea level rise, the CC commitment is 10 centimeters per century (extreme range approximately 1 to 30 centimeters per century) and the CE commitment is 25 centimeters per century (7 to 50 centimeters per century). Avoiding these changes requires, eventually, a reduction in emissions to substantially below present levels. For sea level rise, a substantial long-term commitment may be impossible to avoid.
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Cited by
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Davis, S. J., Caldeira, K., & Matthews, H. D. (2010) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1188566 · Cited by 1,399
Meinshausen, M., Raper, S. C. B., & Wigley, T. M. L. (2011) · Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics · doi:10.5194/acp-11-1417-2011 · Cited by 876
Self-citationThe implications of projected climate change for freshwater resources and their management
KUNDZEWICZ, Z. W., MATA, L. J., ARNELL, N. W., DÖLL, P., JIMENEZ, B., MILLER, K., OKI, T., ŞEN, Z., & SHIKLOMANOV, I. (2008) · Hydrological Sciences Journal · doi:10.1623/hysj.53.1.3 · Cited by 874
Decadal Prediction: Can It Be Skillful?
Meehl, G. A., Goddard, L., Murphy, J., Stouffer, R. J., Boer, G., Danabasoglu, G., Dixon, K., Giorgetta, M. A., Greene, A. M., Hawkins, E., et al. (2009) · Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society · doi:10.1175/2009bams2778.1 · Cited by 755
Metadata
- Authors
- Wigley, T. M. L.
- Venue
- Science
- Published
- 2005-03-18
- Volume
- 307
- Issue
- 5716
- Pages
- 1766-1769
- ISSN
- 0036-8075 (ISSN-L)
- 1095-9203
- OpenAlex
- W1984430226
- Cited by
- 387
- References
- 0
- FWCI
- 33.86
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
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Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).
Semantic Scholar’s data is described in: Kinney, R., et al. (2023). The Semantic Scholar Open Data Platform. arXiv:2301.10140.
