Future CO 2 Emissions and Climate Change from Existing Energy Infrastructure
Abstract
What We're In For: What would our climate future look like if we stopped building any new infrastructure that used fossil fuels? Davis et al. (p. 1330 ; see the Perspective by Hoffert ) made the assumption that all existing infrastructure will be used until the end of its lifetime, after which it will be replaced by infrastructure that does not produce CO 2 . They then calculated the amount of additional CO 2 that will be added to the atmosphere. The outcome is that the concentration of atmospheric CO 2 would remain below 430 parts per million (ppm) (present levels are 390 ppm) and global mean temperatures would increase to 1.3°C above preindustrial values (about 0.5°C above present), well below current targets of 450 ppm and 2°C, respectively.
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Previous literature has shown that inadequate near-term reduction efforts imply a substantially higher rate of transformation to comply with the 2 °C limit, stranded assets, substantially higher mitigation costs in the long term, and reduced techno-economic mitigation potential due to carbon lock-in.
“Previous literature has shown that inadequate near-term reduction efforts imply that a substantially higher rate of transformation will be needed to comply with the 2 °C limit11, stranded assets25 and substantially higher mitigation costs in the long term, and reduced techno-economic mitigation potential due to carbon lock-in26.”
From Taking stock of national climate policies to evaluate implementation of the Paris Agreement (2020) · cites this paper as [26]
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“Moreover, the use of building stocks is projected to contribute to 282–701 Gt CO2 between 2010 and 2060.(44) The long life expectancy of buildings and infrastructure makes the system prone to legacies and lock-in effects that predetermine energy- and carbon-intensive pathways, which are costly to redirect.”
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- Authors
- Davis, S. J., Caldeira, K., & Matthews, H. D.
- Affiliations
- Carnegie Institution for Science (US)
- Concordia University (CA)
- Corresponding author
- Davis, Steven J.
- Venue
- Science
- Published
- 2010-09-10
- Volume
- 329
- Issue
- 5997
- Pages
- 1330-1333
- ISSN
- 0036-8075 (ISSN-L)
- 1095-9203
- OpenAlex
- W2144603483
- Cited by
- 1,399
- References
- 22
- Citations by year
- 2026: 95 · 2025: 124 · 2024: 125 · 2023: 138 · 2022: 129 · 2021: 121 · 2020: 117 · 2019: 102 · 2018: 78 · 2017: 83 · 2016: 69 · 2015: 55 · 2014: 56 · 2013: 42 · 2012: 30
- FWCI
- 79.80
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Science (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Climate Change Policy and Economics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate Change and Environmental Impact
- Keywords
- CO2 emissions, climate change, fossil fuel combustion, cumulative emissions, atmospheric CO2 concentration, climate inertia, emission scenarios
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