Cited by 3,234Human Mobility and Location-Based AnalysisComplex Systems and Time Series AnalysisOpportunistic and Delay-Tolerant Networks

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Limits of Predictability in Human Mobility

Song, Chaoming, Qu, Zehui, Blumm, Nicholas, Barabási, Albert-László·2010·Science

DOI 10.1126/science.1177170

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Abstract

Predictable Travel Routines: While people rarely perceive their actions to be random, current models of human activity are fundamentally stochastic. Processes that rely on human mobility patterns, like the prediction of new epidemics, traffic engineering, or city planning, could benefit from highly accurate predictive models. To investigate the predictability of human dynamics, Song et al. (p. 1018 ) used the recorded trajectories of millions of mobile phone users, collected by mobile phone companies and anonymized for research purposes. They hypothesized that given the wide range of travel patterns that different users follow, there would be significant differences between their predictability as well: Users who travel less should be easier to predict than those who are constantly on the road. Surprisingly, there was 93% predictability across the whole user base, and individuals' predictability did not in general fall significantly below 80%.

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Self-citation

Authors: Song, C., Qu, Z., Blumm, N., & Barabási, A.-L.
Affiliations: Northeastern University (US)
Center for Complex Network Research, Departments of Physics, Biology, and Computer Science, Northeastern University, Boston, MA 02115, USA.
ORCID: Song, Chaoming
Venue: Science
Publisher: American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
Published: 2010-02-19
Volume: 327
Issue: 5968
Pages: 1018-1021
ISSN: 0036-8075 (ISSN-L)
1095-9203
DOI: 10.1126/science.1177170
OpenAlex: W1987228002
Cited by: 3,234
References: 25
Citations by year: 2026: 125 · 2025: 113 · 2024: 149 · 2023: 133 · 2022: 206 · 2021: 222 · 2020: 221 · 2019: 274 · 2018: 294 · 2017: 249 · 2016: 258 · 2015: 264 · 2014: 225 · 2013: 203 · 2012: 140
FWCI: 390.44
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: closed
Locations: Science (publishedVersion)
PubMed (publishedVersion)
Topics: Social Sciences › Transportation › Human Mobility and Location-Based Analysis
Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis
Physical Sciences › Computer Science › Computer Networks and Communications › Opportunistic and Delay-Tolerant Networks
Keywords: human mobility, predictability, individual mobility patterns, epidemic forecasting, traffic engineering, urban planning
MeSH terms: Behavior, Forecasting, Humans, Human Activities, Locomotion, Probability, Travel, Models, Statistical, Cell Phone

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Limits of Predictability in Human Mobility

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