Tapping into the wisdom of the crowd—with confidence
Open accessAbstract
The subjective confidence of individuals in groups can be a valid predictor of accuracy in decision-making tasks.
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High confidence is an indicator of accuracy when judgments are independent but becomes an indicator of consensus when social influence takes place.
“Therefore, high confidence is an indicator of accuracy when judgments are independent but becomes an indicator of consensus when social influence takes place [43], [44].”
From Social Influence and the Collective Dynamics of Opinion Formation (2013) · cites this paper as [44]
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References 12 · Cited by 89
- Authors
- Hertwig, R.
- Affiliations
- University of Basel (CH)
- Corresponding author
- Hertwig, Ralph
- ORCID
- Hertwig, Ralph
- Venue
- Science
- Published
- 2012-04-20
- Volume
- 336
- Issue
- 6079
- Pages
- 303-304
- ISSN
- 0036-8075 (ISSN-L)
- 1095-9203
- OpenAlex
- W2171060787
- Cited by
- 89
- References
- 12
- Citations by year
- 2026: 3 · 2025: 6 · 2024: 6 · 2023: 11 · 2022: 10 · 2021: 13 · 2020: 10 · 2019: 3 · 2018: 4 · 2017: 5 · 2016: 2 · 2015: 4 · 2014: 5 · 2013: 6 · 2012: 1
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- hdl.handle.net
- Licence
- other-oa
- Locations
- Science (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Max Planck Institute for Plasma Physics (submittedVersion)
- Max Planck Digital Library (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- MPG.PuRe (Max Planck Society) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Computer Science › Computer Science Applications › Mobile Crowdsensing and Crowdsourcing
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › General Decision Sciences › Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics
- Social Sciences › Safety Research › Experimental Behavioral Economics Studies
- Keywords
- wisdom of crowds, subjective confidence, group decision making, prediction accuracy, confidence judgments, collective intelligence
- MeSH terms
- Decision Making, Female, Group Processes, Humans, Interpersonal Relations, Male
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
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