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Global Warming and Northern Hemisphere Sea Ice Extent
Abstract
Surface and satellite-based observations show a decrease in Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent during the past 46 years. A comparison of these trends to control and transient integrations (forced by observed greenhouse gases and tropospheric sulfate aerosols) from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory and Hadley Centre climate models reveals that the observed decrease in Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent agrees with the transient simulations, and both trends are much larger than would be expected from natural climate variations. From long-term control runs of climate models, it was found that the probability of the observed trends resulting from natural climate variability, assuming that the models' natural variability is similar to that found in nature, is less than 2 percent for the 1978–98 sea ice trends and less than 0.1 percent for the 1953–98 sea ice trends. Both models used here project continued decreases in sea ice thickness and extent throughout the next century.
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Citations
Cited by
Arctic climate change: observed and modelled temperature and sea-ice variability
Johannessen, O. M., Bengtsson, L. O., Miles, M. W., Kuzmina, S. I., Семенов, В. А., Alekseev, G. V., Nagurnyi, A. P., Zakharov, V. F., Bobylev, L., Pettersson, L. H., et al. (2004) · Tellus A Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography · doi:10.1111/j.1600-0870.2004.00060.x · Cited by 658
Self-citationPolar Bears in a Warming Climate
Derocher, A. E. (2004) · Integrative and Comparative Biology · doi:10.1093/icb/44.2.163 · Cited by 486
A record minimum arctic sea ice extent and area in 2002
Serreze, M. C., Maslanik, J. A., Scambos, T. A., Fetterer, F., Stroeve, J., Knowles, K., Fowler, C., Drobot, S., Barry, R. G., & Haran, T. M. (2003) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2002gl016406 · Cited by 316
Zhou, L., Kaufmann, R. K., Tian, Y., Myneni, R. B., & Tucker, C. J. (2003) · Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/2002jd002510 · Cited by 310
Santer, B. D., Sausen, R., Wigley, T. M. L., Boyle, J. S., AchutaRao, K., Doutriaux, C., Hansen, J. E., Meehl, G. A., Roeckner, E., Ruedy, R., et al. (2003) · Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/2002jd002258 · Cited by 277
Metadata
- Authors
- Vinnikov, K. Y., Robock, A., Stouffer, R. J., Walsh, J. E., Parkinson, C. L., Cavalieri, D. J., Mitchell, J. F. B., Garrett, D., & Zakharov, V. F.
- Venue
- Science
- Published
- 1999-12-03
- Volume
- 286
- Issue
- 5446
- Pages
- 1934-1937
- ISSN
- 0036-8075 (ISSN-L)
- 1095-9203
- OpenAlex
- W2018989980
- Cited by
- 395
- References
- 0
- FWCI
- 19.24
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
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- CoChat. (2026). Citation check: Global Warming and Northern Hemisphere Sea Ice Extent. https://app.cochat.ai/papers/10.1126/science.286.5446.1934
- The paper
- Vinnikov, K. Y., Robock, A., Stouffer, R. J., Walsh, J. E., Parkinson, C. L., Cavalieri, D. J., Mitchell, J. F. B., Garrett, D., & Zakharov, V. F. (1999). Global Warming and Northern Hemisphere Sea Ice Extent. Science. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.286.5446.1934
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Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).
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