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The Global Spread of Malaria in a Future, Warmer World

Rogers, David J., Randolph, Sarah E.·2000·Science

Abstract

The frequent warnings that global climate change will allow falciparum malaria to spread into northern latitudes, including Europe and large parts of the United States, are based on biological transmission models driven principally by temperature. These models were assessed for their value in predicting present, and therefore future, malaria distribution. In an alternative statistical approach, the recorded present-day global distribution of falciparum malaria was used to establish the current multivariate climatic constraints. These results were applied to future climate scenarios to predict future distributions, which showed remarkably few changes, even under the most extreme scenarios.

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Metadata

Authors
Rogers, D. J., & Randolph, S. E.
Venue
Science
Published
2000-09-08
Volume
289
Issue
5485
Pages
1763-1766
ISSN
  • 0036-8075 (ISSN-L)
  • 1095-9203
OpenAlex
W1680499948
Cited by
696
References
0
FWCI
68.22
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
closed

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CoChat. (2026). Citation check: The Global Spread of Malaria in a Future, Warmer World. https://app.cochat.ai/papers/10.1126/science.289.5485.1763
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Rogers, D. J., & Randolph, S. E. (2000). The Global Spread of Malaria in a Future, Warmer World. Science. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.289.5485.1763

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Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).

Semantic Scholar’s data is described in: Kinney, R., et al. (2023). The Semantic Scholar Open Data Platform. arXiv:2301.10140.