The DOI matches its Crossref record; 25 of the 25 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Data-driven predictions in the science of science
Open accessAbstract
The desire to predict discoveries—to have some idea, in advance, of what will be discovered, by whom, when, and where—pervades nearly all aspects of modern science, from individual scientists to publishers, from funding agencies to hiring committees. In this Essay, we survey the emerging and interdisciplinary field of the “science of science” and what it teaches us about the predictability of scientific discovery. We then discuss future opportunities for improving predictions derived from the science of science and its potential impact, positive and negative, on the scientific community.
Overview
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Verification
Claims the paper makes
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
The self-check needs the paper’s full text.
Citations
Cites
Price, D. J. D. S. (1965) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.149.3683.510 · Cited by 3,122
Barocas, S., & Selbst, A. D. (2014) · doi:10.2139/ssrn.2477899 · Cited by 3,048
Merton, R. K. (1948) · The Antioch Review · doi:10.2307/4609267 · Cited by 2,145
Merton, R. K. (2016) · The Antioch Review · doi:10.7723/antiochreview.74.3.0504 · Cited by 1,371
Error and the Growth of Experimental Knowledge
Mayo, D. G. (1996) · doi:10.7208/chicago/9780226511993.001.0001 · Cited by 1,325
Race, Ethnicity, and NIH Research Awards
Ginther, D. K., Schaffer, W. T., Schnell, J., Masimore, B., Liu, F., Haak, L. L., & Kington, R. (2011) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1196783 · Cited by 1,075
The natural selection of bad science
Smaldino, P. E., & McElreath, R. (2016) · Royal Society Open Science · doi:10.1098/rsos.160384 · Cited by 860
Quantifying Long-Term Scientific Impact
Wang, D., Song, C., & Barabási, A.-L. (2013) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1237825 · Cited by 753
Systematic inequality and hierarchy in faculty hiring networks
Clauset, A., Arbesman, S., & Larremore, D. B. (2015) · Science Advances · doi:10.1126/sciadv.1400005 · Cited by 624
Self-citationQuantifying the evolution of individual scientific impact
Sinatra, R., Wang, D., Deville, P., Song, C., & Barabási, A.-L. (2016) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.aaf5239 · Cited by 619
Self-citation
Research works printed but not linked: 7
- P. E. Stephan S. G. Levin Striking the Mother Lode in Science: The Importance of Age Place and Time (Oxford Univ. Press 1992).
- 10.1038/538444a · doi:10.1038/538444a
- F.Radicchi et al . Quantifying perceived impact of scientific publications. https://arxiv.org/abs/1612.03962 (2016). · arXiv
- 10.15779/Z38BG31 · doi:10.15779/z38bg31 · Paper page
- Fairness Accountability and Transparency in Machine Learning: 2016 Workshop; www.fatml.org.
- F.Dyson,Birds and frogs. Not. Am. Math. Soc. 56, 212–223 (2009).
- J. Langford “The NIPS experiment” [blog] (Communications of the Association for Computing Machinery 2015); http://cacm.acm.org/blogs/blog-cacm/181996-the-nipsexperiment/fulltext.
Cited by
Fortunato, S., Bergstrom, C. T., Börner, K., Evans, J. A., Helbing, D., Milojević, S., Petersen, A. M., Radicchi, F., Sinatra, R., Uzzi, B., et al. (2018) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.aao0185 · Cited by 1,497
Self-citationData-driven modeling and learning in science and engineering
Montáns, F. J., Chinesta, F., Gómez-Bombarelli, R., & Kutz, J. N. (2019) · Comptes Rendus. Mécanique · doi:10.1016/j.crme.2019.11.009 · Cited by 299
Dynamics of cross-platform attention to retracted papers
Peng, H., Romero, D. M., & Horvát, E.-Á. (2022) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.2119086119 · Cited by 57
Metadata
- Authors
- Clauset, A., Larremore, D. B., & Sinatra, R.
- Venue
- Science
- Published
- 2017-02-03
- Volume
- 355
- Issue
- 6324
- Pages
- 477-480
- ISSN
- 0036-8075 (ISSN-L)
- 1095-9203
- OpenAlex
- W2585057539
- Cited by
- 265
- References
- 25
- FWCI
- 21.91
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
How to cite
Cite CoChat for the checks on this page, and the paper for its own findings.
- This page
- CoChat. (2026). Citation check: Data-driven predictions in the science of science. https://app.cochat.ai/papers/10.1126/science.aal4217
- The paper
- Clauset, A., Larremore, D. B., & Sinatra, R. (2017). Data-driven predictions in the science of science. Science. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aal4217
Data sources
Bibliographic data: Semantic Scholar, OpenAlex, Crossref.
Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).
Semantic Scholar’s data is described in: Kinney, R., et al. (2023). The Semantic Scholar Open Data Platform. arXiv:2301.10140.