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Cited by 377Forest ecology and managementPlant Water Relations and Carbon DynamicsEcology and Vegetation Dynamics Studies

Long-term thermal sensitivity of Earth’s tropical forests

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Sullivan, Martin J. P., Lewis, Simon L., Affum-Baffoe, Kofi, Castilho, Carolina, Costa, Flávia, Sanchez, Aida Cuni, Ewango, Corneille E. N., Hubau, Wannes +218 more·2020·Science
DOI 10.1126/science.aaw7578
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Abstract

Thermal sensitivity of tropical trees: A key uncertainty in climate change models is the thermal sensitivity of tropical forests and how this value might influence carbon fluxes. Sullivan et al. measured carbon stocks and fluxes in permanent forest plots distributed globally. This synthesis of plot networks across climatic and biogeographic gradients shows that forest thermal sensitivity is dominated by high daytime temperatures. This extreme condition depresses growth rates and shortens the time that carbon resides in the ecosystem by killing trees under hot, dry conditions. The effect of temperature is worse above 32°C, and a greater magnitude of climate change thus risks greater loss of tropical forest carbon stocks. Nevertheless, forest carbon stocks are likely to remain higher under moderate climate change if they are protected from direct impacts such as clearance, logging, or fires. Science , this issue p. 869

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  • Rising temperatures will increase thermal stress, potentially reducing forest productivity and carbon storage capacity and causing widespread leaf damage.

    “Rising temperatures will increase thermal stress, potentially reducing forest productivity and carbon storage capacity36 and causing widespread leaf damage34.”

    From Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system (2024) · cites this paper as [36]

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Authors
Sullivan, M. J. P., Lewis, S. L., Affum-Baffoe, K., Castilho, C., Costa, F., Sanchez, A. C., Ewango, C. E. N., Hubau, W., Marimon, B., Monteagudo-Mendoza, A., Qie, L., Sonké, B., Martinez, R. V., Baker, T. R., Brienen, R. J. W., Feldpausch, T. R., Galbraith, D., Gloor, M., Malhi, Y., Aiba, S.-I., Alexiades, M. N., Almeida, E. C., de Oliveira, E. A., Dávila, E. Á., Loayza, P. A., Andrade, A., Vieira, S. A., Aragão, L. E. O. C., Araujo-Murakami, A., Arets, E. J. M. M., Arroyo, L., Ashton, P., Aymard C., G., Baccaro, F. B., Banin, L. F., Baraloto, C., Camargo, P. B., Barlow, J., Barroso, J., Bastin, J.-F., Batterman, S. A., Beeckman, H., Begne, S. K., Bennett, A. C., Berenguer, E., Berry, N., Blanc, L., Boeckx, P., Bogaert, J., Bonal, D., Bongers, F., Bradford, M., Brearley, F. Q., Brncic, T., Brown, F., Burban, B., Camargo, J. L., Castro, W., Céron, C., Ribeiro, S. C., Moscoso, V. C., Chave, J., Chezeaux, E., Clark, C. J., de Souza, F. C., Collins, M., Comiskey, J. A., Valverde, F. C., Medina, M. C., da Costa, L., Dančák, M., Dargie, G. C., Davies, S., Cardozo, N. D., de Haulleville, T., de Medeiros, M. B., del Aguila Pasquel, J., Derroire, G., Di Fiore, A., Doucet, J.-L., Dourdain, A., Droissart, V., Duque, L. F., Ekoungoulou, R., Elias, F., Erwin, T., Esquivel-Muelbert, A., Fauset, S., Ferreira, J., Llampazo, G. F., Foli, E., Ford, A., Gilpin, M., Hall, J. S., Hamer, K. C., Hamilton, A. C., Harris, D. J., Hart, T. B., Hédl, R., Herault, B., Herrera, R., Higuchi, N., Hladik, A., Coronado, E. H., Huamantupa-Chuquimaco, I., Huasco, W. H., Jeffery, K. J., Jimenez-Rojas, E., Kalamandeen, M., Djuikouo, M. N. K., Kearsley, E., Umetsu, R. K., Kho, L. K., Killeen, T., Kitayama, K., Klitgaard, B., Koch, A., Labrière, N., Laurance, W., Laurance, S., Leal, M. E., Levesley, A., Lima, A. J. N., Lisingo, J., Lopes, A. P., Lopez-Gonzalez, G., Lovejoy, T., Lovett, J. C., Lowe, R., Magnusson, W. E., Malumbres-Olarte, J., Manzatto, Â. G., Marimon, B. H., Marshall, A. R., Marthews, T., de Almeida Reis, S. M., Maycock, C., Melgaço, K., Mendoza, C., Metali, F., Mihindou, V., Milliken, W., Mitchard, E. T. A., Morandi, P. S., Mossman, H. L., Nagy, L., Nascimento, H., Neill, D., Nilus, R., Vargas, P. N., Palacios, W., Camacho, N. P., Peacock, J., Pendry, C., Peñuela Mora, M. C., Pickavance, G. C., Pipoly, J., Pitman, N., Playfair, M., Poorter, L., Poulsen, J. R., Poulsen, A. D., Preziosi, R., Prieto, A., Primack, R. B., Ramírez-Angulo, H., Reitsma, J., Réjou-Méchain, M., Correa, Z. R., de Sousa, T. R., Bayona, L. R., Roopsind, A., Rudas, A., Rutishauser, E., Abu Salim, K., Salomão, R. P., Schietti, J., Sheil, D., Silva, R. C., Espejo, J. S., Valeria, C. S., Silveira, M., Simo-Droissart, M., Simon, M. F., Singh, J., Soto Shareva, Y. C., Stahl, C., Stropp, J., Sukri, R., Sunderland, T., Svátek, M., Swaine, M. D., Swamy, V., Taedoumg, H., Talbot, J., Taplin, J., Taylor, D., ter Steege, H., Terborgh, J., Thomas, R., Thomas, S. C., Torres-Lezama, A., Umunay, P., Gamarra, L. V., van der Heijden, G., van der Hout, P., van der Meer, P., van Nieuwstadt, M., Verbeeck, H., Vernimmen, R., Vicentini, A., Vieira, I. C. G., Torre, E. V., Vleminckx, J., Vos, V., Wang, O., White, L. J. T., Willcock, S., Woods, J. T., Wortel, V., Young, K., Zagt, R., Zemagho, L., Zuidema, P. A., Zwerts, J. A., & Phillips, O. L.
Affiliations
  • Manchester Metropolitan University (GB)
  • University of Leeds (GB)
  • Mensuration Unit, Forestry Commission of Ghana, Kumasi, Ghana.
  • Embrapa (BR)
  • Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia (BR)
  • Department of Ecosystem Science and Sustainability, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, USA.
  • Wildlife Conservation Society Democratic Republic of the Congo (CD)
  • Royal Museum for Central Africa (BE)
  • Universidade do Estado de Mato Grosso (BR)
  • Jardín Botánico de Missouri, Oxapampa, Peru.
  • University of Lincoln (GB)
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  • University of Exeter (GB)
  • University of Oxford (GB)
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  • University of Kent (GB)
  • Universidade Federal do Oeste do Pará (BR)
  • Universidade do Estado de Mato Grosso, Cáceres - MT, Brazil.
  • Escuela de Ciencias Agrícolas, Pecuarias y del Medio Ambiente, National Open University and Distance, Bogotá, Colombia.
  • Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA.
  • Universidade Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP) (BR)
  • Museo de Historia Natural Noel Kempff Mercado, Universidad Autónoma Gabriel René Moreno, Santa Cruz, Bolivia.
  • Wageningen University & Research (NL)
  • Gabriel René Moreno Autonomous University (BO)
  • Harvard University (US)
  • Programa de Ciencias del Agro y el Mar, Herbario Universitario, Guanare, Venezuela.
  • Universidade Federal do Amazonas (BR)
  • UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (GB)
  • Florida International University (US)
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  • Ghent University (BE)
  • Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute (PA)
  • Environmental Change Institute, School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
  • The Landscapes and Livelihoods Group, Edinburgh, UK.
  • Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (FR)
  • University of Liège (BE)
  • Institut National de Recherche pour l'Agriculture, l'Alimentation et l'Environnement (FR)
  • CSIRO Land and Water (AU)
  • Wildlife Conservation Society Congo (CG)
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  • INRAE, UMR EcoFoG, CNRS, CIRAD, AgroParisTech, Université des Antilles, Université de Guyane, 97310 Kourou, French Guiana.
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  • Laboratoire Évolution et Diversité Biologique, UMR 5174 (CNRS/IRD/UPS), CNRS, Toulouse, France.
  • Rougier-Gabon, Libreville, Gabon.
  • Duke University (US)
  • School of Geography, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK.
  • University of Edinburgh (GB)
  • Smithsonian Institution (US)
  • Proyecto Castaña, Made de Dios, Peru.
  • Universidad Nacional de San Agustin de Arequipa (PE)
  • Instituto de Geociências, Faculdade de Meteorologia, Universidade Federal do Para, Belém, PA, Brazil.
  • Palacký University Olomouc (CZ)
  • Facultad de Ciencias Biológicas, Universidad Nacional de la Amazonía Peruana, Iquitos, Peru.
  • Service of Wood Biology, Royal Museum for Central Africa, Tervuren, Belgium.
  • Embrapa Genetic Resources and Biotechnology, Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation (EMBRAPA), Brasília, Brazil.
  • Instituto de Investigaciones de la Amazonía Peruana, Iquitos, Peru.
  • Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (FR)
  • Department of Anthropology, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX, USA.
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  • School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK.
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  • The Forestry Commission of Ghana (GH)
  • 128 Busbridge Lane, Godalming, Surrey, UK.
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  • Czech Academy of Sciences (CZ)
  • Isotope Bioscience Laboratory (ISOFYS), Ghent University, Ghent, Belgium.
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  • Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia (INPA), Manaus, Brazil.
  • Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (FR)
  • Universidad Nacional de San Antonio Abad del Cusco, Cusco, Peru.
  • National University of Saint Anthony the Abbot in Cuzco (PE)
  • University of Stirling (GB)
  • Instituto IMANI, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Leticia, Colombia.
  • Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MY)
  • Agteca, Santa Cruz, Bolivia.
  • Kyoto University (JP)
  • Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew (GB)
  • University of Hong Kong (HK)
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  • Wildlife Conservation Society Uganda (UG)
  • Université de Kisangani (CD)
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  • George Mason University (US)
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  • cE3c – Centre for Ecology, Evolution and Environmental Changes / Azorean Biodiversity Group, Universidade dos Açores, Angra do Heroísmo, Azores, Portugal.
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  • Faculdade de Ciências Agrárias, Biológicas e Sociais Aplicadas, Universidad do Estado de Mato Grosso, Nova Xavantina-MT, Brazil.
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  • UNEMAT - Universidade do Estado de Mato Grosso, Nova Xavantina-MT, Brazil.
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  • Institute of Biology, University of Campinas, Campinas, SP, Brazil.
  • Universidad Estatal Amazónica (EC)
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  • Grupo de Ecosistemas Tropicales y Cambio Global, Universidad Regional Amazónica Ikiam, Tena, Ecuador.
  • Public Communications and Outreach Group, Parks and Recreation Division, Oakland Park, FL, USA.
  • Field Museum of Natural History (US)
  • Centre for Agricultural Research in Suriname (CELOS), Paramaribo, Suriname.
  • Universidad Nacional de Colombia (CO)
  • Boston University (US)
  • Institute of Research for Forestry Development (INDEFOR), Universidad de los Andes, Mérida, Venezuela.
  • Bureau Waardenburg (Netherlands) (NL)
  • AMAP, Universite de Montpellier, IRD, CNRS, CIRAD, INRAE, Montpellier, France.
  • Socioecosistemas y Cambio Climatico, Fundacion Con Vida, Medellín, Colombia.
  • Centro de Conservacion, Investigacion y Manejo de Areas Naturales, CIMA Cordillera Azul, Lima, Peru.
  • Iwokrama International Centre for Rainforest Conservation and Development (GY)
  • Faculty of Science, Universiti Brunei Darussalam, Brunei.
  • Museu Paraense Emílio Goeldi (BR)
  • Norwegian University of Life Sciences (NO)
  • Centro de Ciências Biológicas e da Natureza, Universidade Federal do Acre, Rio Branco, AC, Brazil.
  • Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Lancaster, UK.
  • Plant Systematics and Ecology Laboratory, Higher Teachers’ Training College, University of Yaoundé I, Yaoundé, Cameroon.
  • Guyana Forestry Commission (GY)
  • Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (ES)
  • Sustainable Landscapes and Food Systems, Center for International Forestry Research, Bogor, Indonesia.
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  • Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands.
  • Data for Sustainability, Axel, Netherlands.
  • Instituto Federal do Acre (BR)
  • School of Environmental and Forest Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, OR, USA.
  • Universidad Autónoma del Beni (BO)
  • Northern Arizona University (US)
  • Bangor University (GB)
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  • Forest Management, Centre for Agricultural Research in Suriname (CELOS), Paramaribo, Suriname.
  • The University of Texas at Austin (US)
  • Tropenbos International (NL)
  • Utrecht University (NL)
Corresponding author
Sullivan, Martin J. P.
ORCID
Venue
Science
Publisher
American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
Published
2020-05-22
Volume
368
Issue
6493
Pages
869-874
ISSN
  • 0036-8075 (ISSN-L)
  • 1095-9203
DOI
10.1126/science.aaw7578
OpenAlex
W3028181898
Cited by
377
References
7
Citations by year
2026: 51 · 2025: 57 · 2024: 49 · 2023: 53 · 2022: 79 · 2021: 66 · 2020: 22
FWCI
34.27
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
cc-by-nc-nd
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Funders
  • David and Lucile Packard Foundation
  • Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation (1656, Monitoring Protected Areas in Peru to Increase Forest Resilience to Climate Change)
  • FP7 Ideas: European Research Council (283080, 282664)
  • Natural Environment Research Council (NE/D005590/1, NE/K016431/1, NE/N004655/1, NE/B503384/1, NE/N012542/1, NE/F005806/1)
  • State of São Paulo Research Foundation
  • Royal Society (CH160091)
  • European Research Council (291585)
  • the National Council for Science and Technology Development of Brazil
  • Leverhulme Trust
Topics
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Nature and Landscape Conservation › Forest ecology and management
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Nature and Landscape Conservation › Ecology and Vegetation Dynamics Studies
Keywords
tropical forests, forest carbon, climate sensitivity, maximum temperature, aboveground biomass, permanent forest plots, climate change
MeSH terms
Acclimatization, Carbon, Hot Temperature, Trees, Tropical Climate, Wood, Biomass, Earth, Planet, Climate Change, Carbon Cycle, Forests

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