Boom-bust cycles in gray whales associated with dynamic and changing Arctic conditions
Open accessAbstract
Climate change is affecting a wide range of global systems, with polar ecosystems experiencing the most rapid change. Although climate impacts affect lower-trophic-level and short-lived species most directly, it is less clear how long-lived and mobile species will respond to rapid polar warming because they may have the short-term ability to accommodate ecological disruptions while adapting to new conditions. We found that the population dynamics of an iconic and highly mobile polar-associated species are tightly coupled to Arctic prey availability and access to feeding areas. When low prey biomass coincided with high ice cover, gray whales experienced major mortality events, each reducing the population by 15 to 25%. This suggests that even mobile, long-lived species are sensitive to dynamic and changing conditions as the Arctic warms.
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The population dynamics model for eastern breeding stock gray whales in Stewart et al. (2023) estimates a significant population decline starting in 1989, similar in magnitude to the 1999 and 2019 episodic mortality events and reflected in declines in both abundance and body condition.
“In addition, the population dynamics model for EBS gray whales presented by Stewart et al. (2023) estimates a significant population decline starting in 1989, similar in magnitude to the 1999 and 2019 EMEs and reflected in declines in both abundance and body condition.”
From Update on the status of gray whales since the 2020 Implementation Review (2024) · cites this paper as Stewart et al., 2023
The Results and discussion describe a 1987–1989 abundance decline, comparable to the 1999–2000 and 2019–2022 mortality events, and report poor body condition in 1988. The Fig. 1 caption says the decline began in 1987, not 1989. Page numbers were not provided in the supplied passages. (LLM, conf=0.90)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredThe population dynamics model in Stewart et al. (2023) estimates a recent abundance high of 23,619 in 2018 and a low of 18,027 in 2023, corresponding to a 23.7% decrease in abundance.
“The population dynamics model presented in Stewart et al. (2023), integrating all available abundance and vital rate time series, estimates a recent abundance high of 23,619 (95% credible interval 22,830-24,429) in 2018 and a low of 18,027 (95% credible interval 16,942-19,074) in 2023”
From Update on the status of gray whales since the 2020 Implementation Review (2024) · cites this paper as Stewart et al., 2023
The Results and discussion section describes an integrated population dynamics model and reports that major mortality events reduced abundance by 15–25%. However, no passage in our copy gives the claimed 2018 and 2023 abundance estimates, their credible intervals, or the precise 23.7% decrease; searches for those numbers found no match. Page numbers were not available in the indexed copy. (LLM, conf=0.84)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredThe Stewart et al. (2023) model estimated a 19.1% decline between 1987 and 1990.
“The Stewart et al. (2023)model estimated a smaller but still substantial decline of 19.1% (95% credible interval 14.0-24.3%)between 1987 and 1990.”
From Update on the status of gray whales since the 2020 Implementation Review (2024) · cites this paper as Stewart et al., 2023
The Results and discussion section reports a major 1987–1989 abundance decline and says the three major mortality events each reduced abundance by 15–25%. That supports a substantial decline beginning in 1987, but our copy does not give the claimed 19.1% estimate, its 14.0–24.3% credible interval, or a 1990 endpoint (page unavailable). (LLM, conf=0.83)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredStewart et al. (2023) estimated low and stable rates of direct anthropogenic mortality from 1967-2022 and periodic major increases in natural mortality rates during the three EMEs.
“Using a proportional hazards model to estimate anthropogenic versus natural mortality rates based on the occurrence of human interactions in stranded EBS gray whales, Stewart et al. (2023) estimated low and stable rates of direct anthropogenic mortality from 1967-2022 (i.e., vessel strikes and fishing gear entanglements), and periodic major increases in natural mortality rates during the three EME”
From Update on the status of gray whales since the 2020 Implementation Review (2024) · cites this paper as Stewart et al., 2023
The Results and discussion say model-estimated anthropogenic mortality remained low and stable, while natural mortality peaked during three major die-offs; they also describe a proportional-hazards model based on human interactions in stranded whales. The claimed 1967 start is not supported by our copy, which gives 1968–2022 for the abundance estimates used in the model. (LLM, conf=0.86)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredBody condition of northbound migrating gray whales was largely synchronous with fluctuations in other vital rates but had more deviations from the overall trend than southbound body condition.
“Body condition of northbound migrating gray whales (mostly females with dependent calves) was also largely synchronous with fluctuations in other vital rates but had more deviations from the overall trend than southbound body condition.”
From Update on the status of gray whales since the 2020 Implementation Review (2024) · cites this paper as Stewart et al., 2023
The Fig. 1 caption (Research Article; page unavailable) associates changes in northbound and southbound whales’ body condition with changes in births and mortality, supporting the broad synchrony claim. The available Results and discussion passage breaks off at “The estimated northbound body,” and no retrieved passage establishes that northbound condition deviated from the overall trend more often than southbound condition. (LLM, conf=0.82)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
Fluctuations in the body condition of southbound migrating gray whales were synchronous with changes in calf production rates, strandings rates and changes in abundance.
“Stewart et al. (2023) found that fluctuations in the body condition (recorded by aerial photogrammetry) of southbound migrating gray whales were synchronous with changes in calf production rates, strandings rates and changes in abundance.”
From Update on the status of gray whales since the 2020 Implementation Review (2024) · cites this paper as Stewart et al., 2023
The Fig. 1 caption reports that abundance declines and recoveries were associated with synchronous changes in births and mortality, alongside changes in the condition of southbound migrating whales. The Results and discussion say reported strandings peaked during the 1999–2000 and 2019–2022 mortality events, but not during the 1987–1989 decline. Thus the claim overstates how consistently stranding rates changed with body condition and abundance. (LLM, conf=0.83)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredStewart et al. (2023) estimated that before 1990 approximately 1.3% (1.1-1.6%) of gray whales that died were reported as strandings in the USA National Stranding Database, and after improvements in 1990 approximately 4.5% (4.2-5.1%) were reported as strandings.
“Stewart et al. (2023) estimated that before 1990, when the reporting structure for stranding records was improved, approximately 1.3% ( 1.1-1.6%) of gray whales that died were reported as strandings in the USA National Stranding Database.In contrast, after improvements in 1990, they estimated that approximately 4.5% (4.2-5.1%) of whales that died were reported as strandings.”
From Update on the status of gray whales since the 2020 Implementation Review (2024) · cites this paper as Stewart et al., 2023
Split into 2 atoms — 0 confirmed, 2 partially supported, 0 disputed, 0 misattributed, 0 unverifiable. Expand the claim to see per-atom verdicts.
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredGray whale abundance quickly recovered following each of the large declines documented between 1987-1993 and 1997-2001, showing resilience to past episodic mortality events.
“It should be noted that gray whale abundance quickly recovered following each of the large declines documented between 1987-1993 and 1997-2001, showing the resilience of the gray whale population to past EME events (Stewart et al., 2023).”
From Update on the status of gray whales since the 2020 Implementation Review (2024) · cites this paper as Stewart et al., 2023
Recent modelling by Stewart et al. (2023) found a significant positive relationship between annual carrying capacity and both Arctic crustacean biomass and sea ice-mediated access to foraging areas, suggesting the ability to physically access feeding areas combined with in-situ prey availability explains fluctuations in body condition, reproduction and mortality.
“However, recent modelling by Stewart et al. (2023) found a significant positive relationship between annual carrying capacity and both Arctic crustacean biomass and sea ice-mediated access to foraging areas, suggesting the ability of ENP gray whales to physically access feeding areas, combined with in-situ prey availability, explains fluctuations in body condition, reproduction and mortality.”
From Update on the status of gray whales since the 2020 Implementation Review (2024) · cites this paper as Stewart et al., 2023
The two EMEs beginning in 1999 and 2019, and the putative EME beginning in 1987, are all associated with declines in body condition.
“The two EMEs beginning in 1999 and 2019, and the putative EME beginning in 1987 (Stewart et al., 2023), are all associated with declines in body condition.”
From Update on the status of gray whales since the 2020 Implementation Review (2024) · cites this paper as Stewart et al., 2023
Stewart et al. (2023) conducted an integrated analysis of gray whale population dynamics and found annual variability in the number of gray whales supported by the Arctic ecosystem, and that the ecosystem was not able to support the full abundance of the population during the current EME.
“second, Stewart et al. (2023) conducted an integrated analysis of gray whale population dynamics and found annual variability in the number of gray whales supported by the Arctic ecosystem, and that the ecosystem was not able to support the full abundance of the population during the current EME.”
From Update on the status of gray whales since the 2020 Implementation Review (2024) · cites this paper as Stewart et al., 2023
Stewart et al. (2023) demonstrates a relationship between EMEs, benthic crustacean biomass and access to feeding areas in the Arctic and suggest that benthic crustacean biomass has been in decline over the past 50 years.
“Further, Stewart et al. (2023) demonstrates a relationship between EMEs, benthic crustacean biomass and access to feeding areas in the Arctic and suggest that benthic crustacean biomass has been in decline over the past 50 years.”
From Update on the status of gray whales since the 2020 Implementation Review (2024) · cites this paper as Stewart et al., 2023
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Research works printed but not linked: 8
- A. M. Springer, C. P. McRoy, M. Flint, Fish. Oceanogr. 5, 205-223 (1996).
- S. E. Moore et al., PLOS ONE 17, e0265934 (2022).
- S. E. Alter, E. Rynes, S. R. Palumbi, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 104, 15162-15167 (2007).
- N. D. Pyenson, D. R. Lindberg, PLOS ONE 6, e21295 (2011).
- A. E. Punt, P. R. Wade, "Population status of the eastern North Pacific stock of gray whales in 2009," US Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Technical Memo NMFS-AFSC-207, 43 (2009).
- G. Gailey et al., Sci. Rep. 10, 1553 (2020).
- R. C. Lewontin, D. Cohen, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 62, 1056-1060 (1969).
- D. G. Heckel, J. Roughgarden, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 77, 7497-7500 (1980).
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Update on the status of gray whales since the 2020 Implementation Review
Scordino, J., Bickham, J. W., Brandon, J. R., Brownell, R. L., Burdin, A., Doniol-Valcroze, T., Eguchi, T., Givens, G. H., Lang, A. R., Litovka, D. I., et al. (2024) · J. Cetacean Res. Manage. · doi:10.47536/jcrm.v25i1.942 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
“The Stewart et al. (2023) population dynamics model estimated a slightly smaller decline of 16.1% (95% credible interval 13.3–18.9%).”
BackgroundMethodInfluentialSelf-citation
- Authors
- Stewart, J. D., Joyce, T. W., Durban, J. W., Calambokidis, J., Fauquier, D., Fearnbach, H., Grebmeier, J. M., Lynn, M., Manizza, M., Perryman, W. L., Tinker, M. T., & Weller, D. W.
- Affiliations
- Oregon State University (US)
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (US)
- Cascadia Research Collective (US)
- NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service (US)
- Sealife Response, Rehabilitation and Research (SR3), Des Moines, WA, USA.
- University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science (US)
- Scripps Institution of Oceanography (US)
- University of California, Santa Cruz (US)
- Corresponding author
- Stewart, Joshua D.
- ORCID
- Venue
- Science
- Published
- 2023-10-13
- Volume
- 382
- Issue
- 6667
- Pages
- 207-211
- ISSN
- 0036-8075 (ISSN-L)
- 1095-9203
- OpenAlex
- W4387595303
- Cited by
- 58
- References
- 0
- Citations by year
- 2026: 15 · 2025: 20 · 2024: 21 · 2023: 2
- FWCI
- 9.39
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- Licence
- public-domain
- Locations
- Science (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- NOAA Institutional Repository (submittedVersion, public-domain)
- Funders
- National Science Foundation
- U.S. Department of Commerce
- U.S. Department of the Interior
- Oregon State University
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
- U.S. Bureau of Land Management
- Office of Polar Programs
- Office of Marine and Aviation Operations
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecology › Marine animal studies overview
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Marine and fisheries research
- Health Sciences › Health Professions › General Health Professions › Indigenous Studies and Ecology
- Keywords
- gray whale, North Atlantic right whale, boom-bust cycles, population dynamics, climate change, Arctic warming, prey availability, sea ice cover, feeding grounds, whale mortality, polar ecosystems
- MeSH terms
- Animals, Arctic Regions, Population Dynamics, Whales, Biomass, Ice Cover, Climate Change
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