Predicting the probability and volume of postwildfire debris flows in the intermountain western United States

Abstract

Research Article| January 01, 2010 Predicting the probability and volume of postwildfire debris flows in the intermountain western United States Susan H. Cannon; Susan H. Cannon † 1U.S. Geological Survey, Box 25046, Denver Federal Center, MS 966, Denver, Colorado 80225, USA †E-mail: cannon@usgs.gov Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Joseph E. Gartner; Joseph E. Gartner 1U.S. Geological Survey, Box 25046, Denver Federal Center, MS 966, Denver, Colorado 80225, USA Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Michael G. Rupert; Michael G. Rupert 2U.S. Geological Survey, 201 East 9th Street, Pueblo, Colorado 81003, USA Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar John A. Michael; John A. Michael 1U.S. Geological Survey, Box 25046, Denver Federal Center, MS 966, Denver, Colorado 80225, USA Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Alan H. Rea; Alan H. Rea 3U.S. Geological Survey, 230 Collins Road, Boise, Idaho 83702, USA Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Charles Parrett Charles Parrett 4U.S. Geological Survey, Placer Hall, 600 J Street, Sacramento, California 95819, USA Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Author and Article Information Susan H. Cannon † 1U.S. Geological Survey, Box 25046, Denver Federal Center, MS 966, Denver, Colorado 80225, USA Joseph E. Gartner 1U.S. Geological Survey, Box 25046, Denver Federal Center, MS 966, Denver, Colorado 80225, USA Michael G. Rupert 2U.S. Geological Survey, 201 East 9th Street, Pueblo, Colorado 81003, USA John A. Michael 1U.S. Geological Survey, Box 25046, Denver Federal Center, MS 966, Denver, Colorado 80225, USA Alan H. Rea 3U.S. Geological Survey, 230 Collins Road, Boise, Idaho 83702, USA Charles Parrett 4U.S. Geological Survey, Placer Hall, 600 J Street, Sacramento, California 95819, USA †E-mail: cannon@usgs.gov Publisher: Geological Society of America Received: 07 May 2008 Revision Received: 09 Oct 2008 Accepted: 11 Oct 2008 First Online: 08 Mar 2017 Online ISSN: 1943-2674 Print ISSN: 0016-7606 © 2010 Geological Society of America GSA Bulletin (2010) 122 (1-2): 127–144. https://doi.org/10.1130/B26459.1 Article history Received: 07 May 2008 Revision Received: 09 Oct 2008 Accepted: 11 Oct 2008 First Online: 08 Mar 2017 Cite View This Citation Add to Citation Manager Share Icon Share Facebook Twitter LinkedIn MailTo Tools Icon Tools Get Permissions Search Site Citation Susan H. Cannon, Joseph E. Gartner, Michael G. Rupert, John A. Michael, Alan H. Rea, Charles Parrett; Predicting the probability and volume of postwildfire debris flows in the intermountain western United States. GSA Bulletin 2010;; 122 (1-2): 127–144. doi: https://doi.org/10.1130/B26459.1 Download citation file: Ris (Zotero) Refmanager EasyBib Bookends Mendeley Papers EndNote RefWorks BibTex toolbar search Search Dropdown Menu toolbar search search input Search input auto suggest filter your search All ContentBy SocietyGSA Bulletin Search Advanced Search Abstract Empirical models to estimate the probability of occurrence and volume of postwildfire debris flows can be quickly implemented in a geographic information system (GIS) to generate debris-flow hazard maps either before or immediately following wildfires. Models that can be used to calculate the probability of debris-flow production from individual drainage basins in response to a given storm were developed using logistic regression analyses of a database from 388 basins located in 15 burned areas located throughout the U.S. Intermountain West. The models describe debris-flow probability as a function of readily obtained measures of areal burned extent, soil properties, basin morphology, and rainfall from short-duration and low-recurrence-interval convective rainstorms. A model for estimating the volume of material that may issue from a basin mouth in response to a given storm was developed using multiple linear regression analysis of a database from 56 basins burned by eight fires. This model describes debris-flow volume as a function of the basin gradient, aerial burned extent, and storm rainfall. Applications of a probability model and the volume model for hazard assessments are illustrated using information from the 2003 Hot Creek fire in central Idaho. The predictive strength of the approach in this setting is evaluated using information on the response of this fire to a localized thunderstorm in August 2003. The mapping approach presented here identifies those basins that are most prone to the largest debris-flow events and thus provides information necessary to prioritize areas for postfire erosion mitigation, warnings, and prefire management efforts throughout the Intermountain West. You do not have access to this content, please speak to your institutional administrator if you feel you should have access.