Global prevalence, trend and projection of myopia in children and adolescents from 1990 to 2050: a comprehensive systematic review and meta-analysis

Abstract

Background: Myopia is a pervasive global public health concern, particularly among the younger population. However, the escalating prevalence of myopia remains uncertain. Hence, our research aims to ascertain the global and regional prevalence of myopia, along with its occurrence within specific demographic groups. Methods: An exhaustive literature search was performed on several databases covering the period from their inception to 27 June 2023. The global prevalence of myopia was determined by employing pooled estimates with a 95% CI, and further analysis was conducted to assess variations in prevalence estimates across different subgroups. Additionally, a time series model was utilised to forecast and fit accurately the future prevalence of myopia for the next three decades. Results: This study encompasses a comprehensive analysis of 276 studies, involving a total of 5 410 945 participants from 50 countries across all six continents. The findings revealed a gradual increase in pooled prevalence of myopia, ranging from 24.32% (95% CI 15.23% to 33.40%) to 35.81% (95% CI 31.70% to 39.91%), observed from 1990 to 2023, and projections indicate that this prevalence is expected to reach 36.59% in 2040 and 39.80% in 2050. Notably, individuals residing in East Asia (35.22%) or in urban areas (28.55%), female gender (33.57%), adolescents (47.00%), and high school students (45.71%) exhibit a higher proportion of myopia prevalence. Conclusion: The global prevalence of childhood myopia is substantial, affecting approximately one-third of children and adolescents, with notable variations in prevalence across different demographic groups. It is anticipated that the global incidence of myopia will exceed 740 million cases by 2050.