The DOI matches its Crossref record; 2 of the 2 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Prognosis in patients with recent onset low back pain in Australian primary care: inception cohort study
Open accessAbstract
OBJECTIVE: To estimate the one year prognosis and identify prognostic factors in cases of recent onset low back pain managed in primary care. DESIGN: Cohort study with one year follow-up. SETTING: Primary care clinics in Sydney, Australia. PARTICIPANTS: An inception cohort of 973 consecutive primary care patients (mean age 43.3, 54.8% men) with non-specific low back pain of less than two weeks' duration recruited from the clinics of 170 general practitioners, physiotherapists, and chiropractors. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Participants completed a baseline questionnaire and were contacted six weeks, three months, and 12 months after the initial consultation. Recovery was assessed in terms of return to work, return to function, and resolution of pain. The association between potential prognostic factors and time to recovery was modelled with Cox regression. RESULTS: The follow-up rate over the 12 months was more than 97%. Half of those who reduced their work status at baseline had returned to previous work status within 14 days (95% confidence interval 11 to 17 days) and 83% had returned to previous work status by three months. Disability (median recovery time 31 days, 25 to 37 days) and pain (median 58 days, 52 to 63 days) took much longer to resolve. Only 72% of participants had completely recovered 12 months after the baseline consultation. Older age, compensation cases, higher pain intensity, longer duration of low back pain before consultation, more days of reduced activity because of lower back pain before consultation, feelings of depression, and a perceived risk of persistence were each associated with a longer time to recovery. CONCLUSIONS: In this cohort of patients with acute low back pain in primary care, prognosis was not as favourable as claimed in clinical practice guidelines. Recovery was slow for most patients. Nearly a third of patients did not recover from the presenting episode within a year.
Overview
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Verification
Claims the paper makes
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
The self-check needs the paper’s full text.
Citations
Cites
Pincus, T., Burton, A. K., Vogel, S., & Field, A. P. (2002) · Spine · doi:10.1097/00007632-200203010-00017 · Cited by 1,633
Steenstra, I. A., Verbeek, J. H., Heymans, M. W., & Bongers, P. M. (2005) · Occupational and Environmental Medicine · doi:10.1136/oem.2004.015842 · Cited by 495
Cited by
Maher, C., Underwood, M., & Buchbinder, R. (2017) · The Lancet · doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(16)30970-9 · Cited by 2,535
Self-citationPrevention and treatment of low back pain: evidence, challenges, and promising directions
Foster, N. E., Anema, J. R., Cherkin, D., Chou, R., Cohen, S. P., Gross, D. P., Ferreira, P. H., Fritz, J. M., Koes, B. W., Peul, W., et al. (2018) · The Lancet · doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(18)30489-6 · Cited by 2,398
Self-citationKamper, S. J., Apeldoorn, A. T., Chiarotto, A., Smeets, R. J. E. M., Ostelo, R. W. J. G., Guzman, J., & van Tulder, M. W. (2015) · BMJ · doi:10.1136/bmj.h444 · Cited by 1,092
Will this patient develop persistent disabling low back pain?
Chou, R. (2010) · JAMA · doi:10.1001/jama.2010.344 · Cited by 701
Multidisciplinary biopsychosocial rehabilitation for chronic low back pain
Kamper, S. J., Apeldoorn, A. T., Chiarotto, A., Smeets, R. J. E. M., Ostelo, R. W., Guzman, J., & van Tulder, M. W. (2014) · Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews · doi:10.1002/14651858.cd000963.pub3 · Cited by 629
Metadata
- Authors
- Henschke, N., Maher, C. G., Refshauge, K. M., Herbert, R. D., Cumming, R. G., Bleasel, J., York, J., Das, A., & McAuley, J. H.
- Venue
- BMJ
- Publisher
- BMJ
- Published
- 2008-07-07
- Volume
- 337
- Issue
- jul07 1
- Pages
- a171-a171
- ISSN
- 0007-1447 (ISSN-L)
- 0959-8138
- 1468-5833
- OpenAlex
- W2093622830
- Cited by
- 556
- References
- 2
- FWCI
- 16.35
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
How to cite
Cite CoChat for the checks on this page, and the paper for its own findings.
- This page
- CoChat. (2026). Citation check: Prognosis in patients with recent onset low back pain in Australian primary care: inception cohort study. https://app.cochat.ai/papers/10.1136/bmj.a171
- The paper
- Henschke, N., Maher, C. G., Refshauge, K. M., Herbert, R. D., Cumming, R. G., Bleasel, J., York, J., Das, A., & McAuley, J. H. (2008). Prognosis in patients with recent onset low back pain in Australian primary care: inception cohort study. BMJ. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.a171
Data sources
Bibliographic data: Semantic Scholar, OpenAlex, Crossref.
Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).
Semantic Scholar’s data is described in: Kinney, R., et al. (2023). The Semantic Scholar Open Data Platform. arXiv:2301.10140.