Lifetime risk and years lost to type 1 and type 2 diabetes in Denmark, 1996–2016
Open accessAbstract
Introduction: Lifetime risk and lifetime lost to diabetes are measures of current diabetes burden in a population. We aimed at quantifying these measures in the Danish population. Research design and methods: We modeled incidence and mortality of type 1 diabetes (T1D) and type 2 diabetes (T2D) and non-diabetes mortality based on complete follow-up of the entire population of Denmark in 1996–2016. A multistate model with these transition rates was used to assess the lifetime risk of diabetes, as well as the difference in expected lifetime between persons with type 1 and T2D and persons without. Results: In 2016, the lifetime risk of T1D was 1.1% and that for T2D 24%, the latter a 50% increase from 1996. For 50-year-old persons, the lifetime lost was 6.6 years for T1D and 4.8 years for T2D. These figures have been declining over the study period. At 2016, the total foreseeable lives lost in Denmark among patients with T1D were 182 000 years, and those among patients with T2D were 766 000 years, corresponding to 6.6 and 3.0 years per person, respectively. Conclusion: At the individual level, improvements in the disease burden for both T1D and T2D have occurred. At the population level, the increasing number of patients with T2D has contributed to a large increase in the total loss of lifetime.
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In Denmark, expected years of life lost to type 1 diabetes mellitus from age 60 years were 6.9 for men and 6.0 for women in 2017.
“In Denmark, the expected years of life lost to T1DM from age 60 years were 6.9 for men and 6.0 for women in 2017 (ref. 45).”
From The epidemiology of type 1 diabetes mellitus in older adults (2025) · cites this paper as [45]
Table 1 (Results, “Lifetime risk of diabetes”; page not provided) gives 6.0 years lost to T1D for women aged 60 on January 1, 2017, as claimed. For men aged 60, it gives 5.2 years, not 6.9; the 6.9 figure is for women aged 50. (LLM, conf=0.93)
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Cites
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The epidemiology of type 1 diabetes mellitus in older adults
Tomic, D., Harding, J. L., Jenkins, A. J., Shaw, J. E., & Magliano, D. J. (2025) · Nature Reviews Endocrinology · doi:10.1038/s41574-024-01046-z · Cited by 58 · see citing works
- Authors
- Carstensen, B., Rønn, P. F., & Jørgensen, M. E.
- Affiliations
- Steno Diabetes Center Copenhagen (DK)
- University of Southern Denmark (DK)
- Corresponding author
- Jørgensen, Marit Eika
- Venue
- BMJ Open Diabetes Research & Care
- Publisher
- BMJ
- Published
- 2021-03
- Volume
- 9
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- e001065
- ISSN
- 2052-4897 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC7929801
- OpenAlex
- W3133875180
- Cited by
- 17
- References
- 2
- Citations by year
- 2026: 3 · 2025: 2 · 2024: 4 · 2023: 3 · 2022: 5
- FWCI
- 2.24
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- BMJ Open Diabetes Research & Care (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
- University of Southern Denmark Research Portal (University of Southern Denmark) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc)
- Funders
- Amgen
- AstraZeneca
- Sanofi
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism › Diabetes Management and Research
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism › Diabetes, Cardiovascular Risks, and Lipoproteins
- Life Sciences › Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology › Genetics › Diabetes and associated disorders
- Keywords
- type 1 diabetes, type 2 diabetes, lifetime risk, diabetes burden, diabetes incidence, diabetes mortality, multi-state models, population trends, Denmark
- MeSH terms
- Denmark, Diabetes Mellitus, Type 1, Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2, Humans, Middle Aged, Incidence, Cost of Illness
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