The relatively young and rural population may limit the spread and severity of COVID-19 in Africa: a modelling study
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Abstract
Introduction: A novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has spread to all regions of the world. There is great uncertainty regarding how countries’ characteristics will affect the spread of the epidemic; to date, there are few studies that attempt to predict the spread of the epidemic in African countries. In this paper, we investigate the role of demographic patterns, urbanisation and comorbidities on the possible trajectories of COVID-19 in Ghana, Kenya and Senegal. Methods: We use an augmented deterministic Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model to predict the true spread of the disease, under the containment measures taken so far. We disaggregate the infected compartment into asymptomatic, mildly symptomatic and severely symptomatic to match observed clinical development of COVID-19. We also account for age structures, urbanisation and comorbidities (HIV, tuberculosis, anaemia). Results: In our baseline model, we project that the peak of active cases will occur in July, subject to the effectiveness of policy measures. When accounting for the urbanisation, and factoring in comorbidities, the peak may occur between 2 June and 17 June (Ghana), 22 July and 29 August (Kenya) and, finally, 28 May and 15 June (Senegal). Successful containment policies could lead to lower rates of severe infections. While most cases will be mild, we project in the absence of policies further containing the spread, that between 0.78% and 1.03%, 0.61% and 1.22%, and 0.60% and 0.84% of individuals in Ghana, Kenya and Senegal, respectively, may develop severe symptoms at the time of the peak of the epidemic. Conclusion: Compared with Europe, Africa’s younger and rural population may modify the severity of the epidemic. The large youth population may lead to more infections but most of these infections will be asymptomatic or mild, and will probably go undetected. The higher prevalence of underlying conditions must be considered.
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The disparity in COVID-19 burden between Africa and the rest of the world has been attributed to limited capacity for diagnosis, timely implementation of stringent containment measures, a younger population structure, and a predominance of asymptomatic and mild infections.
“This disparity has been attributed to limited capacity for diagnosis, timely implementation of stringent containment measures, a younger population structure, and a predominance of asymptomatic and mild infections (3, 4).”
From Seroprevalence of anti–SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies in Kenyan blood donors (2021) · cites this paper as [3]
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- Authors
- Diop, B. Z., Ngom, M., Pougué Biyong, C., & Pougué Biyong, J. N.
- Affiliations
- University of Oxford (GB)
- Mathematics and Computer Science, Argonne National Laboratory, Lemont, Illinois, USA
- Economics, Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne, Paris, Île-de-France, France
- Mathematics, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
- Corresponding author
- Diop, Binta Zahra
- ORCID
- Diop, Binta Zahra
- Venue
- BMJ Global Health
- Publisher
- BMJ
- Published
- 2020-05
- Volume
- 5
- Issue
- 5
- Pages
- e002699
- ISSN
- 2059-7908 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC7252974
- OpenAlex
- W3027173470
- Cited by
- 207
- References
- 36
- Citations by year
- 2026: 7 · 2025: 8 · 2024: 11 · 2023: 26 · 2022: 37 · 2021: 79 · 2020: 39
- FWCI
- 7.23
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Update notices
- correction (2020-07-16)
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- BMJ Global Health (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc)
- medRxiv (acceptedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- OSTI OAI (U.S. Department of Energy Office of Scientific and Technical Information) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
- Funders
- U.S. Department of Energy (DE‐ AC02‐06CH11357, AC02‐06CH11357, 06CH11357, DE-AC02-)
- Global Challenges Research Fund
- Office of Science (AC02‐06CH11357, DE-AC02, 06CH11357, DE-AC02-06CH11357)
- Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (DE-AC02-06CH11357)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Modeling and Simulation › COVID-19 epidemiological studies
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › COVID-19 Prevention and Impact
- Keywords
- COVID-19 pandemic, epidemic projection, age structure, rural population, urbanization, comorbidities, HIV, tuberculosis, anemia, SARS-CoV-2 transmission, containment measures, disease severity, asymptomatic infection, Ghana, Kenya, Senegal
- MeSH terms
- Betacoronavirus, COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, Africa, Humans, Pneumonia, Viral, Rural Population, Severity of Illness Index, Coronavirus Infections, Pandemics
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