Why is life expectancy in England and Wales ‘stalling’?
Open accessAbstract
Several independent analyses, by both epidemiologists and actuaries, have concluded that the previous rate of improvement of life expectancy in England and Wales has now slowed markedly, and at older ages may even be reversing. However, although these findings have led the pension industry to reduce estimates of future liabilities, they have failed to elicit any significant concern in the Department of Health and Social Care. In this essay, we review the evidence on changing life expectancy, noting that the problems are greatest among older women. We then estimate the gap between what life expectancy is now and what it might have been had previous trends continued. At age 85, the gap is 0.34 years for women and 0.23 for men. We argue that recent changes cannot be dismissed as a temporary aberration. While the causes of this phenomenon are contested, there is growing evidence to point to the austerity policies implemented in recent years as at least a partial explanation. We conclude by calling for a fully independent enquiry to ascertain what is happening to life expectancy in England and Wales and what should be done about it.
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Life expectancy in England and Wales had been steadily improving for 50 years before stagnating in the past decade.
“Life expectancy in England and Wales had been steadily improving for 50 years before stagnating in the past decade.34 35”
From Estimating the burden of the COVID-19 pandemic on mortality, life expectancy and lifespan inequality in England and Wales: a population-level analysis (2021) · cites this paper as [34]
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- Hiam L, et al. J Epidemiol Community Health 2018;72:404-408. doi:10.1136/jech-2017-210401 Essay · DOI
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Increasing healthy life expectancy equitably in England by 5 years by 2035: could it be achieved?
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- Authors
- Hiam, L., Harrison, D., McKee, M., & Dorling, D.
- Affiliations
- London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (GB)
- University of Lancashire (GB)
- University of Oxford (GB)
- Corresponding author
- McKee, Martin
- Venue
- Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health
- Publisher
- BMJ
- Published
- 2018-02-20
- Volume
- 72
- Issue
- 5
- Pages
- 404-408
- ISSN
- 0141-7681 (ISSN-L)
- 0143-005X
- 1470-2738
- OpenAlex
- W2788995900
- Cited by
- 179
- References
- 17
- Citations by year
- 2026: 4 · 2025: 7 · 2024: 11 · 2023: 14 · 2022: 22 · 2021: 57 · 2020: 20 · 2019: 31 · 2018: 10 · 2017: 1
- FWCI
- 8.00
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Licence
- public-domain
- Locations
- Journal of Epidemiology & Community Health (publishedVersion, public-domain)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- LSHTM Research Online (London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine) (acceptedVersion)
- HighWire Press Open Archive (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Demography › Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management
- Social Sciences › Health › Health disparities and outcomes
- Health Sciences › Health Professions › General Health Professions › Global Health Care Issues
- Keywords
- life expectancy, life expectancy trends, older women, age gap, austerity, pension liabilities, public health policy, England and Wales
- MeSH terms
- Aged, Cause of Death, England, Female, Humans, Life Expectancy, Male, Middle Aged, Mortality, Wales
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