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Mortality Implications of Mortality Plateaus

Missov, Trifon I., Vaupel, James W.·2015·SIAM Review
DOI 10.1137/130912992
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Abstract

This article aims to describe in a unified framework all plateau-generating random effects models in terms of (i) plausible distributions for the hazard (baseline mortality) and the random effect (unobserved heterogeneity, frailty) as well as (ii) the impact of frailty on the baseline hazard. Mortality plateaus result from multiplicative (proportional) and additive hazards, but not from accelerated failure time models. Frailty can have any distribution with regularly-varying-at-0 density and the distribution of frailty among survivors to each subsequent age converges to a gamma distribution. In a multiplicative setting the baseline cumulative hazard can be represented as the inverse of the negative logarithm of any completely monotone function. If the plateau is reached, the only meaningful solution at the plateau is provided by the gamma-Gompertz model.

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  • Elegant Gamma-Gompertz distributions for deaths arise naturally in the framework.

    “and elegant Gamma-Gompertz distributions for deaths arise naturally in the framework (21–24).”

    From The plateau of human mortality: Demography of longevity pioneers (2018) · cites this paper as [24]

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Metadata

Authors
Missov, T. I., & Vaupel, J. W.
Venue
SIAM Review
Publisher
Society for Industrial & Applied Mathematics (SIAM)
Published
2015-01
Volume
57
Issue
1
Pages
61-70
ISSN
  • 0036-1445
  • 1095-7200
DOI
10.1137/130912992
Cited by
33
References
0
Language
en

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