Neural Coding of Uncertainty and Probability

Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk

Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1979) · Econometrica · doi:10.2307/1914185 · Cited by 48,524

Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk

Kahneman, D. J., & Tversky, A. (1988) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511609220.014 · Cited by 32,720

Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 25

Zhang, Y., Sutton, C. A., Storkey, A., & Zoubin Ghahramani, A. (2012) · Cited by 12,653

Untitled work

(1966) · Medical Entomology and Zoology · Cited by 10,293

Signal detection theory and psychophysics

Ingleby, D. (1967) · Journal of Sound and Vibration · doi:10.1016/0022-460x(67)90197-6 · Cited by 8,616

The Neural Basis of Decision Making

Gold, J. I., & Shadlen, M. N. (2007) · Annual Review of Neuroscience · doi:10.1146/annurev.neuro.29.051605.113038 · Cited by 3,764

Noise in the nervous system

Faisal, A. A., Selen, L. P. J., & Wolpert, D. M. (2008) · Nature Reviews Neuroscience · doi:10.1038/nrn2258 · Cited by 2,883

A framework for studying the neurobiology of value-based decision making

Rangel, A., Camerer, C., & Montague, P. R. (2008) · Nature Reviews Neuroscience · doi:10.1038/nrn2357 · Cited by 2,184

Discrete coding of reward probability and uncertainty by dopamine neurons

Fiorillo, C. D., Tobler, P. N., & Schultz, W. (2003) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1077349 · Cited by 2,085

Learning the value of information in an uncertain world

Behrens, T. E. J., Woolrich, M. W., Walton, M. E., & Rushworth, M. F. S. (2007) · Nature Neuroscience · doi:10.1038/nn1954 · Cited by 2,053

Encoding and Decoding Neural Population Signals for Two-Dimensional Stimulus

Liu, X., Xing, Z., & Guo, W. (2017) · Neural Processing Letters · doi:10.1007/s11063-017-9602-x · Cited by 2

Reinforcement learning in probabilistic environment and its role in human adaptive and maladaptive behavior

Kozunova, G. L. (2016) · Journal of Modern Foreign Psychology · doi:10.17759/jmfp.2016050409 · Cited by 2

Neurons That Update Representations of the Future

Seriès, P. (2018) · Trends in Cognitive Sciences · doi:10.1016/j.tics.2018.05.012 · Cited by 2

Computation by inverse causality: A universal principle to produce symbols for the external reality in living systems

Nakajima, T. (2022) · Biosystems · doi:10.1016/j.biosystems.2022.104692 · Cited by 2

An insula-driven network computes decision uncertainty and promotes abstinence in chronic cocaine usersPreprint

Yu, J., Fiore, V. G., Briggs, R. W., Braud, J., Rubia, K., Adinoff, B. H., & Gu, X. (2020) · bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory) · doi:10.1101/2020.04.08.031757 · Cited by 2

Change Detection

Wright, A. A. (2022) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-319-55065-7_1590 · Cited by 2

Progressive neural organization across the IFG and pMTG tracks gesture–speech information-theoretic structurePreprint

Zhao, W., Li, Z., Li, X., & Du, Y. (2022) · bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory) · doi:10.1101/2022.11.23.517759 · Cited by 2

Adaptive Integration of Perceptual and Reward Information in an Uncertain WorldPreprint

Ganesh, P., Cichy, R. M., Schuck, N. W., Finke, C., & Bruckner, R. (2024) · bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory) · doi:10.1101/2024.04.24.590947 · Cited by 2

Dual representation of lexical uncertainty in human cortexPreprint

Guilleminot, P. H., & Morillon, B. (2025) · bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory) · doi:10.1101/2025.08.08.669343 · Cited by 4

Cortical population codes for embedding sensory inputs into the prior contextPreprint

Hachen, I., Reinartz, S., Stroligo, A., Pequeño-Zurro, A., & Diamond, M. E. (2026) · bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory) · doi:10.64898/2026.02.27.707941 · Cited by 2

Temporal context modulates the recovery of the attentional blink

Yao, F., & Zhou, B. (2025) · Cognitive Research Principles and Implications · doi:10.1186/s41235-025-00625-6 · Cited by 1

Neural correlates of reduced sensitivity to information about uncertainty during valuation in older adults: An fNIRS study

Peng, X.-R., Bundil, I., Schulreich, S., & Li, S. (2025) · Imaging Neuroscience · doi:10.1162/imag.a.61 · Cited by 1

Brain complexity represents uncertainty in sequence learning and corroborates habituation deficit in Parkinson disease patients

Beni, M. H. H., Hosseinpour, K., Seyednejad, M. R., & Aghajan, H. K. (2025) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-025-00826-5 · Cited by 3

Meta-analysis shows a malleable rightward bias in the expectations of objects in space

Zhao, Z. L., Pike, E., Deouell, L. Y., Lin, C., & Garrido, M. I. (2025) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-025-04590-4 · Cited by 1

Over reliance on prior expectations in relapsing remitting multiple sclerosis

Pourmohammadi, A., Rezaei, H., Adibi, A., Dehghani, M., Gorji, A., Sima, S., Adibi, I., & Sanayei, M. (2026) · iScience · doi:10.1016/j.isci.2026.117323 · Cited by 1

Motion direction biases around the clock: Learned and in-built direction priors pull perception and pursuit apart

Ardasheva, L., & Montagnini, A. (2026) · Journal of Vision · doi:10.1167/jov.26.3.11 · Cited by 1

Neural circuits encode prior knowledge of temporal statistics

Koppen, J., Klinkhamer, I., Runge, M., Bayones, L., & Narain, D. (2026) · Nature Neuroscience · doi:10.1038/s41593-026-02255-7 · Cited by 2

Causal thinking in physiology: A search for vertically organizing principles

Frasch, M. G. (2026) · The Journal of Physiology · doi:10.1113/jp290762 · Cited by 3

Different types of uncertainty distinguished by monkey prefrontal neurons

Matsumoto, M., Abe, H., Tanaka, K., & Matsumoto, K. (2022) · Cerebral Cortex Communications · doi:10.1093/texcom/tgac002 · Cited by 2

Influences of temporal and probabilistic expectation on subjective time of emotional stimulus

Karaaslan, A., & Shi, Z. (2024) · Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology · doi:10.1177/17470218241245355 · Cited by 2

Single trial Bayesian inference by population vector readout in the barn owl’s sound localization system

Fischer, B. J., Shadron, K., Ferger, R., & Peña, J. L. (2024) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0303843 · Cited by 1

How does explicit reliability guide choices? Effect of trustworthiness on choice and metacognition

Ota, K., Ciston, A. B., Haggard, P., Gajdos, T., & Charles, L. (2026) · PLoS Computational Biology · doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1014818 · Cited by 2

Phase Transitions in When Feedback is Useful

Boominathan, L., & Pitkow, X. (2022) · neural information processing systems · doi:10.52202/068431-0788 · Cited by 1

Point estimate observers: A new class of models for perceptual decision making.

Schütt, H. H., Yoo, A. H., Calder-Travis, J. M., & Ma, W. J. (2023) · Psychological Review · doi:10.1037/rev0000402 · Cited by 1

On a New Type of Neural Computation for Probabilistic Symbolic Reasoning

Qiao, X., & Li, H. H. (2023) · International Joint Conference on Neural Networks (IJCNN) · doi:10.1109/ijcnn54540.2023.10191306 · Cited by 1

Certain behaviors: Response selection and certainty-related processing in humans and rhesus monkeys

Moreira, C. M. (2016) · doi:10.53846/goediss-5797 · Cited by 1

Variability in prior expectations explains biases in confidence reportsPreprint

Tano, P., Meyniel, F., Sigman, M., & Salles, A. (2017) · bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory) · doi:10.1101/127399 · Cited by 1

Internal bias controls dopamine perceptual decision-related responsesPreprint

Sarno, S., Beirán, M., Vergara, J., Rossi-Pool, R., Romo, R., & Parga, N. (2018) · bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory) · doi:10.1101/431387 · Cited by 1

Dopamine firing plays a double role in coding reward prediction errors and signaling motivation in a working memory taskPreprint

Sarno, S., Beirán, M., Falcó-Roget, J., Diaz-deLeon, G., Rossi-Pool, R., Romo, R., & Parga, N. (2020) · bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory) · doi:10.1101/2020.05.01.071977 · Cited by 1

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Confidence Predictions Affect Performance Confidence and Neural Preparation in Perceptual Decision Making.Preprint

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rTMS to right parietal cortex decreases the precision of spatial priors in perceptual decision makingPreprint

Zuanazzi, A., Meijer, D., & Noppeney, U. (2023) · bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory) · doi:10.1101/2023.08.23.554530 · Cited by 1

Cerebellar encoding of prior knowledge of temporal statisticsPreprint

Koppen, J., Bayones, L., Runge, M., Klinkhamer, I., & Narain, D. (2024) · bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory) · doi:10.1101/2024.08.19.608550 · Cited by 1

Humans use overconfident estimates of auditory spatial and temporal uncertainty for perceptual inferencePreprint

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Combining Sampling Methods with Attractor Dynamics in Spiking Models of Head-Direction SystemsPreprint

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Response statistics dissect the contributions of different sources of variability to population activity in V1Preprint

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Awareness of the Outcome of Self-Initiated Pointing ActionsPreprint

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A Radically New Theory of how the Brain Represents and Computes with ProbabilitiesPreprint

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Rapid acquisition of near optimal stopping using Bayesian by-productsPreprint

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Neural population dynamics underlying expected value computationPreprint

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Is Perception Probabilistic

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A Computational Model of Transduction Cells in the Vestibular System

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Metamers of Bayesian computationPreprint

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Certainty and Singular Causal JudgmentPreprint

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Acculturation by Plasticity and Stability in Neural Processes: Considerations for Global Mental Health Challenges

Goh, J. O. S. (2022) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oxfordhb/9780190057695.013.22

Change Detection

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Log, Stock and Two Simple Lotteries: Technical SupplementPreprint

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Pilotların Karar Verme Süreçlerine Nörobilimsel ve Bilişsel Yaklaşımlar

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Mental Effort Cost Learning is RetrospectivePreprint

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Probability estimation in accounting: subjective numeracy matters

Zhang, Y., Seufert, J. H., & Dellaportas, S. (2023) · Journal of Applied Accounting Research · doi:10.1108/jaar-08-2022-0198

Can working memory be explained by predictive coding?Preprint

Feng, M. (2023) · Thesis Commons (OSF Preprints) · doi:10.31237/osf.io/sqfr9

Control of behavioral uncertainty by divergent frontal circuitsPreprint

Wang, Y., & Sun, Q. (2024) · bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory) · doi:10.1101/2024.03.29.587380

Priors for Natural Image Statistics Inform Confidence in Perceptual DecisionsPreprint

West, R. K., A-Izzeddin, E. J., Sewell, D. K., & Harrison, W. J. (2024) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.4882462

Plaudits for logits in sensory neuroscience

Ryu, J., & Gardner, J. L. (2024) · Neuron · doi:10.1016/j.neuron.2024.08.008

What Directs Search? Behavioral Evidence on Exploration, Aspirations, and Performance StabilityPreprint

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Adaptive Integration of Perceptual and Reward Information in an Uncertain WorldPreprint

Ganesh, P., Cichy, R. M., Schuck, N. W., Finke, C., & Bruckner, R. (2024) · eLife · doi:10.7554/elife.99266 · Cited by 4

Adaptive Integration of Perceptual and Reward Information in an Uncertain WorldPreprint

Ganesh, P., Cichy, R. M., Schuck, N. W., Finke, C., & Bruckner, R. (2024) · eLife · doi:10.7554/elife.99266.1

Progressive neural engagement within the IFG-pMTG circuit as gesture and speech entropy and MI advancesPreprint

Zhao, W., Li, Z., Li, X., & Du, Y. (2024) · eLife · doi:10.7554/elife.99416

Do Young Children Use Verbal Disfluency as a Cue to Their Own Confidence?

West, E., Baer, C., Yu, L., & Odic, D. (2025) · Developmental Science · doi:10.1111/desc.13617

Progressive neural engagement within the IFG-pMTG circuit as gesture and speech entropy and MI advancesPreprint

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Can working memory be explained by predictive coding?Preprint

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Belief updating in decision-variable space: More fine-grained choices attract future ones more strongly

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Can working memory be explained by predictive coding?Preprint

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Ecological Antifragility

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Progressive neural engagement within the IFG-pMTG circuit as gesture and speech entropy and MI advancesPreprint

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Behavioral and Neurobiological Foundations of Judgment Under Uncertainty

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Gambling on limited information: our visual system and probabilistic inference

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Learning and inference with correlated neural variability

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Are we ready to tackle perceptual segmentation of natural scenes?

Coen-Cagli, R., & Mamassian, P. (2025) · Vision Research · doi:10.1016/j.visres.2025.108749

Sample size dependence of Occam’s razor in human decision-makingPreprint

Rinaldi, F. G., & Piasini, E. (2026) · bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory) · doi:10.64898/2026.01.25.701581

Training constrains neural routes to knowledge assemblyPreprint

Wang, Q., French, C., Bansiya, P., Rabii, N., & Nelli, S. (2026) · bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory) · doi:10.64898/2026.03.13.711547

Generative modelling of continuous feature foraging reveals probabilistic representations of target distributions

Fuller, J. M., Kristjansson, A. K., Clarke, A. D. F., & Ásgeirsson, Á. G. (2026) · Attention Perception & Psychophysics · doi:10.3758/s13414-026-03227-6

Influence des indices sociaux non-verbaux sur les jugements métacognitifs rétrospectifs : études comportementales, électromyographiques et interculturelles

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Smooth pursuit eye movements and learning : role of motion probability and reinforcement contingencies

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Dynamical circular inference in the general population and the psychosis spectrum : insights from perceptual decision making

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Perceiving regularity in sequences : behavioural, neural and computational signatures

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Contributions du cortex cingulaire médian à la régulation du comportement : études des dynamiques préfrontales et perturbations locales chez le primate

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Influence of monoamines onto the cost-benefit trade-offs in motivation : a computational and pharmacological approach

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The Role of Progress-Based Intrinsic Motivation in Learning : Evidence from Human Behavior and Future Directions

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Oscillatory dynamics of the hippocampo-cortical dialogue underlying memory formation and consolidation

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Neural coding of uncertainty during statistical learning in humans : a study using ultra-high field functional magnetic resonance imaging

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Biased yet flexible weighting of perceptual and value information during decision-makingPreprint

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Using a betting game to reveal the rich nature of visual working memoriesPreprint

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The sense of agency is reduced by stimulus variability but has a limited effect on perceived variability

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Response Variability and Its Structure: Roles in the Neural Code

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Combining sampling and attractor dynamics in spiking models of head direction systems

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Counter-Inferential Behavior in Natural and Artificial Intelligent Agents

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Change Detection in Rhesus Monkeys and Humans

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The Bayesian brain: The role of uncertainty in neural coding and computation

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Knowing how much you don't know: a neural organization of uncertainty estimates

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Decision-Making Under Uncertainty

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Sensory uncertainty decoded from visual cortex predicts behavior

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Dynamic Reduction of Neural Uncertainty Shapes Perceptual Decisions in a Bayes-Optimal Manner

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