The DOI matches its Crossref record; 128 of the 128 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Neural Coding of Uncertainty and Probability
Open accessAbstract
Organisms must act in the face of sensory, motor, and reward uncertainty stemming from a pandemonium of stochasticity and missing information. In many tasks, organisms can make better decisions if they have at their disposal a representation of the uncertainty associated with task-relevant variables. We formalize this problem using Bayesian decision theory and review recent behavioral and neural evidence that the brain may use knowledge of uncertainty, confidence, and probability.
Overview
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Verification
Claims the paper makes
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
The source backs part of the claim, not all of it — or backs it for a different population, condition or comparison.
In the citing paper
“Bayesian decision theory provides a general and often quantitatively accurate account of perceptual decisions in a wide variety of tasks [16–18].”
From Comparing Bayesian and non-Bayesian accounts of human confidence reports (2018) · cites this paper as [17]
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
The self-check needs the paper’s full text.
Citations
Cites
Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk
Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1979) · Econometrica · doi:10.2307/1914185 · Cited by 48,524
Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk
Kahneman, D. J., & Tversky, A. (1988) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511609220.014 · Cited by 32,720
Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 25
Zhang, Y., Sutton, C. A., Storkey, A., & Zoubin Ghahramani, A. (2012) · Cited by 12,653
(1966) · Medical Entomology and Zoology · Cited by 10,293
Signal detection theory and psychophysics
Ingleby, D. (1967) · Journal of Sound and Vibration · doi:10.1016/0022-460x(67)90197-6 · Cited by 8,616
The Neural Basis of Decision Making
Gold, J. I., & Shadlen, M. N. (2007) · Annual Review of Neuroscience · doi:10.1146/annurev.neuro.29.051605.113038 · Cited by 3,764
Faisal, A. A., Selen, L. P. J., & Wolpert, D. M. (2008) · Nature Reviews Neuroscience · doi:10.1038/nrn2258 · Cited by 2,883
A framework for studying the neurobiology of value-based decision making
Rangel, A., Camerer, C., & Montague, P. R. (2008) · Nature Reviews Neuroscience · doi:10.1038/nrn2357 · Cited by 2,184
Discrete coding of reward probability and uncertainty by dopamine neurons
Fiorillo, C. D., Tobler, P. N., & Schultz, W. (2003) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1077349 · Cited by 2,085
Learning the value of information in an uncertain world
Behrens, T. E. J., Woolrich, M. W., Walton, M. E., & Rushworth, M. F. S. (2007) · Nature Neuroscience · doi:10.1038/nn1954 · Cited by 2,053
Research works printed but not linked: 1
- Peirce CS, 1884, Mem. Natl. Acad. Sci., 3, 73
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Self-Evaluation of Decision-Making: A General Bayesian Framework for Metacognitive Computation
Fleming, S. M., & Daw, N. D. (2017) · Psychological Review · doi:10.1037/rev0000045 · Cited by 584
Confidence and certainty: Distinct probabilistic quantities for different goals
Pouget, A., Drugowitsch, J., & Kepecs, A. (2016) · Nature Neuroscience · doi:10.1038/nn.4240 · Cited by 528
Pupil-linked arousal is driven by decision uncertainty and alters serial choice bias
Urai, A. E., Braun, A., & Donner, T. H. (2017) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/ncomms14637 · Cited by 466
Confidence as Bayesian probability: From neural origins to behavior
Meyniel, F., Sigman, M., & Mainen, Z. F. (2015) · Neuron · doi:10.1016/j.neuron.2015.09.039 · Cited by 349
Perceptual Decision Making in Rodents, Monkeys, and Humans
Hanks, T. D., & Summerfield, C. (2017) · Neuron · doi:10.1016/j.neuron.2016.12.003 · Cited by 409
Metadata
- Authors
- Ma, W. J., & Jazayeri, M.
- Affiliations
- New York University (US)
- McGovern Institute for Brain Research (US)
- Corresponding author
- Ma, Wei Ji
- Venue
- Annual Review of Neuroscience
- Publisher
- Annual Reviews
- Published
- 2014-07-08
- Volume
- 37
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 205-220
- ISSN
- 0147-006X (ISSN-L)
- 1545-4126
- OpenAlex
- W2157745749
- Cited by
- 290
- References
- 128
- Citations by year
- 2026: 15 · 2025: 28 · 2024: 24 · 2023: 23 · 2022: 24 · 2021: 33 · 2020: 36 · 2019: 22 · 2018: 29 · 2017: 21 · 2016: 25 · 2015: 9 · 2014: 1
- FWCI
- 1.81
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- Annual Review of Neuroscience (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Life Sciences › Neuroscience › Cognitive Neuroscience › Neural and Behavioral Psychology Studies
- Life Sciences › Neuroscience › Cognitive Neuroscience › Memory and Neural Mechanisms
- Life Sciences › Neuroscience › Cognitive Neuroscience › Neural dynamics and brain function
- Keywords
- probability representation, Bayesian decision theory, confidence, decision making under uncertainty, sensory uncertainty, reward uncertainty, Bayesian brain
- MeSH terms
- Animals, Bayes Theorem, Brain, Decision Making, Humans, Models, Neurological, Neurons, Probability, Uncertainty
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
