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Non-valvular atrial fibrillation patients with none or one additional risk factor of the CHA2DS2-VASc score: A comprehensive net clinical benefit analysis for warfarin, aspirin, or no therapy
Abstract
Oral anticoagulation (OAC) to prevent stroke has to be balanced against the potential harm of serious bleeding, especially intracranial haemorrhage (ICH). We determined the net clinical benefit (NCB) balancing effectiveness and safety of no antithrombotic therapy, aspirin and warfarin in AF patients with none or one stroke risk factor. Using Danish registries, we determined NCB using various definitions intrinsic to our cohort (Danish weights at 1 and 5 year follow-up), with risk weights which were derived from the hazard ratio (HR) of death following an event, relative to HR of death after ischaemic stroke. When aspirin was compared to no treatment, NCB was neutral or negative for both risk strata. For warfarin vs no treatment, NCB using Danish weights was neutral where no risk factors were present and using five years follow-up. For one stroke risk factor, NCB was positive for warfarin vs no treatment, for one year and five year follow-up. For warfarin vs aspirin use in patients with no risk factors, NCB was positive with one year follow-up, but neutral with five year follow-up. With one risk factor, NCB was generally positive for warfarin vs aspirin. In conclusion, we show a positive overall advantage (i.e. positive NCB) of effective stroke prevention with OAC, compared to no therapy or aspirin with one additional stroke risk factor, using Danish weights. 'Low risk' AF patients with no additional stroke risk factors (i.e.CHA2DS2-VASc 0 in males, 1 in females) do not derive…
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“The rates of stroke and thromboembolism vary considerably in patients with CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc scores of 1 or 2 due to differences in outcomes, populations, and anticoagulation status (Web Addenda Table 1).371,376,377,1041”
From 2016 ESC Guidelines for the management of atrial fibrillation developed in collaboration with EACTS (2016) · cites this paper as [377]
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“Importantly, we should not forget that OAC also reduces all cause mortality in AF patients, compared to placebo/control (1).”
Background2012 focused update of the ESC Guidelines for the management of atrial fibrillation
Authors Task Force Members, Camm, A. J., Lip, G. Y. H., Caterina, R. D., Savelieva, I., Atar, D., Hohnloser, S. H., Hindricks, G., Kirchhof, P. F., Bax, J. J., et al. (2012) · EP Europace · doi:10.1093/europace/eus305 · Cited by 3,823
Self-citation2014 AHA/ACC/HRS Guideline for the Management of Patients With Atrial Fibrillation
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Self-citationThe Net Clinical Benefit of Warfarin Anticoagulation in Atrial Fibrillation
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- 10.1160/TH11-05-0364 · DOI · Paper page
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2016 ESC Guidelines for the management of atrial fibrillation developed in collaboration with EACTS
Kirchhof, P. F., Benussi, S., Kotecha, D., Ahlsson, A., Atar, D., Casadei, B., Castellà, M., Diener, H., Heidbüchel, H., Hendriks, J., et al. (2016) · EP Europace · doi:10.1093/europace/euw295 · Cited by 6,438
Self-citation2016 ESC Guidelines for the management of atrial fibrillation developed in collaboration with EACTS
Kirchhof, P., Benussi, S., Kotecha, D., Ahlsson, A., Atar, D., Casadei, B., Castella, M., Diener, H.-C., Heidbuchel, H., Hendriks, J., et al. (2016) · European Heart Journal · doi:10.1093/eurheartj/ehw210 · Cited by 6,418
“– 375 The rates of stroke and thrombo-embolism vary considerably in patients with CHA2DS2VASc scores of 1 or 2 due to differences in outcomes, populations, and anticoagulation status (Web Table 1).(371,376,377,1041) We therefore commissioned an analysis of stroke risk in men and women”
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2016 ESC Guidelines for the management of atrial fibrillation developed in collaboration with EACTS
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Self-citationStroke prevention in atrial fibrillation
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“Notwithstanding the fact that even one stroke risk factor confers an excess risk of stroke and death, and that OAC has a positive NCB with one or more stroke risk factors (25), the CHA2DS2-VASc score should be used in a stepwise approach to initially identify ‘low risk’ patients (Step 1), defined as a CHA2DS2-VASc sco…”
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Self-citationComorbidity of atrial fibrillation and heart failure
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“Analysis of Net Clinical Benefit The NCB for the use of warfarin or antiplatelet therapy compared with no treatment was calculated using the formula: ðIschemic stroke rateno treatment Ischemic stroke rateanti thrombotic therapiesÞ weighting factor ðICH rateanti thrombotic therapies ICH rateno treatementÞ The weighting…”
InfluentialSelf-citationStroke risk assessment in atrial fibrillation: risk factors and markers of atrial myopathy
Calenda, B. W., Fuster, V., Halperin, J. L., & Granger, C. B. (2016) · Nature Reviews Cardiology · doi:10.1038/nrcardio.2016.106 · Cited by 117
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Self-citationPerformance and Validation of a Novel Biomarker-Based Stroke Risk Score for Atrial Fibrillation
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“Several studies have demonstrated that the net clinical benefit of OAC is evident in AF patients with one or more stroke risk factors.(23,24) Various guidelines recommend OAC use based on the patients’ risk of stroke by the CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc score.”
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“of OAC in AF even in the setting of high bleeding risk, in part due to the overlap in both stroke and bleeding risk factors.(31,32) Several biological and clinical explanations have been postulated for the bleeding risk that anemia poses in AF.”
BackgroundLip, G. Y. H., & Nielsen, P. B. (2016) · Circulation · doi:10.1161/circulationaha.115.016713 · Cited by 40
Self-citation2025 Clinical practice guidelines for Atrial fibrillation and flutter
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“19,20 Nevertheless, AF patients with 1 nongender CHA2DS2-VASc risk factor still have an elevated risk of stroke compared with patients with a CHA2DS2-VASc score of 0 and the clinical benefit of OAC may be positive in these patients.(5,7) However, the risk contribution of each component of the CHA2DS2-VASc score is not…”
BackgroundSelf-citationUpdated Geriatric Cardiology Guidelines of the Brazilian Society of Cardiology - 2019
Moreira, A. A. C. D. M., Costa, E. F. D. A., Miranda, R. D., Wajngarten, M., Galera, S. C., Filho, A. C. D. A., Toledo, M. A. D. V., Alves, J. D. C., Moriguchi, E. H., Rodrigues, N. L., et al. (2019) · Arquivos Brasileiros de Cardiologia · doi:10.5935/abc.20190086 · Cited by 39
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“Strokes associated with AF are more likely to be fatal and disabling, and even one stroke risk factor confers a significant risk and anticoagulation confers a positive net clinical benefit [21].”
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Massaro, A. R., & Lip, G. Y. H. (2016) · Arquivos Brasileiros de Cardiologia · doi:10.5935/abc.20160116 · Cited by 30
Self-citationStroke prevention in atrial fibrillation
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Self-citationLip, G. Y. H. (2015) · European Heart Journal · doi:10.1093/eurheartj/ehv431 · Cited by 29
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The ageing population is neglected in research studies of traumatic brain injury
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Self-citationCarlos Jerjes-Sánchez, D., Corbalan, R. L., Barretto, A. C. P., Luciardi, H. L., Allu, J., Illingworth, L., Pieper, K. S., Kayani, G., & for the GARFIELD‐AF Investigators (2019) · Clinical Cardiology · doi:10.1002/clc.23176 · Cited by 25
“It has been suggested that in patients with a TTR <65%, the use of NOACs is likely to provide significant clinical benefits.(29) Indeed, the use of NOACs in AF patients would eliminate the requirement for frequent monitoring, which may limit the use of AC therapy in many regions of Latin America.”
BackgroundProietti, M., & Lip, G. Y. H. (2016) · The American Journal of Medicine · doi:10.1016/j.amjmed.2016.03.024 · Cited by 24
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“A recent study from an Asian population, including 11,046 AF patients >90 years, showed that warfarin was associated with a lower risk of ischemic stroke and positive NCB[94].”
BackgroundInfluentialSelf-citationLip, G. Y. H., Potpara, T., Boriani, G., & Blomström‐Lundqvist, C. (2016) · Journal of Internal Medicine · doi:10.1111/joim.12468 · Cited by 19
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“Whilst there are variousways to defineNCB, it ismost commonly estimatedbybalancing the risk of ischemic stroke without OAC against the risk of intracranial haemorrhage with OAC (Lip et al., 2015).”
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Self-citationDecision-making interventions to stop the global atrial fibrillation-related stroke tsunami
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“Contrarily, the net clinical benefit for aspirin is neutral.(18) Therefore, concordant with current guidelines, OACs are the treatment of choice for preventing ischemic stroke in high-risk AF patients (defined as having a CHA2DS2-VASc score of 2(19)) and in a considerable proportion with a single stroke risk factor (C…”
BackgroundSelf-citationEditors’ Choice 2016 papers in Thrombosis and Haemostasis
Lip, G. Y. H., & Weber, C. (2016) · Thrombosis and Haemostasis · doi:10.1160/th16-11-0899 · Cited by 14
“The journal also contributed to the debate on appropriate use of stroke risk scores, such as the CHA2DS2-VASc score – and whether OAC should be used in AF patients with bioprosthesis (23) or those with only one stroke risk factor, given the clearly positive net clinical benefit of OAC in such patients compared to aspi…”
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“The NCB with 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated from rate differences of ischemic stroke and ICH of the present study based on the weights previously produced and reported in the studies by Singer et al. [20], Connolly et al. [21], and Lip et al. [22].”
Self-citationLee, J., Joung, B., Cha, M., Lee, J. H., Lim, W., Kim, T., Shin, S. Y., Uhm, J., Lim, H. E., Kim, J., et al. (2018) · Korean Journal of Medicine · doi:10.3904/kjm.2018.93.2.87.e1 · Cited by 11
State of play and future direction with NOACs: An expert consensus
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Self-citationTiili, P., Jukka Putaala, A., Mehtälä, J., Khanfir, H., Niiranen, J., Korhonen, P. A., Raatikainen, P. M. J., & Lehto, M. (2019) · Circulation Journal · doi:10.1253/circj.cj-18-0975 · Cited by 10
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“In essence, patients with risk factors should be offered OAC unless contraindicated, given the positive net clinical benefit for treating such patients 6,10,11 .”
BackgroundInfluentialSelf-citationLee, J., Joung, B., Cha, M., Lee, J. H., Lim, W., Kim, T., Shin, S. Y., Uhm, J., Lim, H. E., Kim, J., et al. (2018) · Korean Journal of Medicine · doi:10.3904/kjm.2018.93.2.87 · Cited by 8
“하지만 연구마다 대상 환자군 과 항응고 치료 상태, 임상적 결과가 달리 설정되어 있어 상 당한 차이를 보이고 있어 신중한 해석이 필요하다[10,15-17].”
How to Manage Occult Atrial Fibrillation Detected on Long-Term Monitoring
Lip, G. Y. H. (2016) · Circulation · doi:10.1161/circulationaha.115.016797 · Cited by 7
“European Society of Cardiology (ESC) guideline recommendations.(21)”
Self-citationEscalas de evaluación del riesgo tromboembólico y hemorrágico en la fibrilación auricular
Copete, J. P., Esteve‐Pastor, M. A., Roldán, V., Valdés, M., & Marín, F. R. (2016) · Revista Española de Cardiología Suplementos · doi:10.1016/s1131-3587(16)30011-5 · Cited by 7
Potpara, T., Lip, G. Y. H., Blomström‐Lundqvist, C., Chiang, C., & Camm, A. J. (2017) · The American Journal of Medicine · doi:10.1016/j.amjmed.2017.02.026 · Cited by 6
Self-citationFibrilación auricular: enfoque para el médico no cardiólogo
de Caldas, U., Forero, J., Moreno, J., del Bosque, U., Agudelo, C. A., Cayre, I. P. S., Rodríguez, E., de Manizales, I. D. C., & Sánchez, P. (2017) · IATREIA · doi:10.17533/udea.iatreia.v30n4a05 · Cited by 7
“, reportaron recientemente que solo el 5% de los pacientes con FA que consultaban a urgencias tenían INR en rango terapéutico (15), lo cual está en consonancia con la baja tasa de tiempo en rango terapéutico que se ha demostrado en pacientes participantes de estudios clínicos controlados (66% del tiempo en rango terap…”
BackgroundInfluentialSkjøth, F., & Nielsen, P. B. (2016) · Thrombosis and Haemostasis · doi:10.1160/th16-07-0523 · Cited by 6
Self-citationNet Benefit of Early Anticoagulation for Stroke With Atrial Fibrillation
Polymeris, A. A., Branca, M., Sylaja, P. N., Sandset, E. C., de Sousa, D. A., Thomalla, G., Paciaroni, M., Gattringer, T., Strbian, D., Trelle, S., et al. (2025) · JAMA Network Open · doi:10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2024.56307 · Cited by 5
Direct oral anticoagulant reversal: how, when and issues faced
Dzeshka, M. S., Pastori, D., & Lip, G. Y. H. (2017) · Expert Review of Hematology · doi:10.1080/17474086.2017.1379896 · Cited by 5
“The evidence, which supports initiation of OAC for prevention of stroke/systemic embolism in the presence of one or more additional CHA2DS2VASc stroke risk factors, is based on positive net clinical benefit of antithrombotic therapy against potential harm of serious bleeding [43,44].”
BackgroundSelf-citationJung, M., Byeon, K., Kang, K., Lee, W. S., Kim, S., Park, Y. M., Hwang, Y. M., Lee, S. H., Jin, E., Roh, S., et al. (2023) · Journal of Arrhythmia · doi:10.1002/joa3.12840 · Cited by 4
Self-citationDzeshka, M. S., Brown, R. A., Capodanno, D., & Lip, G. Y. H. (2016) · Interventional Cardiology Clinics · doi:10.1016/j.iccl.2016.08.007 · Cited by 5
Self-citationManagement of atrial fibrillation: easy as ABC
Mahmood, M., & Lip, G. Y. H. (2019) · Minerva Medica · doi:10.23736/s0026-4806.18.05824-x · Cited by 6
Self-citationGrymonprez, M., Steurbaut, S., Sutter, A. D., & Lahousse, L. (2020) · Open Heart · doi:10.1136/openhrt-2020-001465 · Cited by 5
“12 15–178 10 Physicians should be aware of the beneficial role of NOACs in this patient subgroup, instead of awaiting anticoagulation initiation until at least two risk factors are present.”
Harrison, S. L., Akpan, A., & Lip, G. Y. H. (2021) · Journal of the American Geriatrics Society · doi:10.1111/jgs.17142 · Cited by 5
“The net clinical benefit of OACs compared with no treatment or aspirin is clear for most people with AF, apart from those at lowest stroke risk.(2) The common risk factors for incident AF are also risk factors for stroke and bleeding in AF.”
BackgroundSelf-citationRitchie, L. A., Harrison, S. L., Penson, P. E., Akbari, A., Torabi, F., Hollinghurst, J., Harris, D. E., Oke, O. B., Akpan, A., Halcox, J., et al. (2024) · Age and Ageing · doi:10.1093/ageing/afae021 · Cited by 4
Self-citationEditors’ Choice 2015 papers in Thrombosis and Haemostasis
Weber, C., & Lip, G. Y. H. (2015) · Thrombosis and Haemostasis · doi:10.1160/th15-11-0911 · Cited by 4
“showed positive overall advantage in terms of net clinical benefit for OAC even in patients with AF and one stroke risk factor (39).”
BackgroundSelf-citationLee, K. B., Kim, T., Park, J., Park, J., Kang, K., Kim, J., Park, H. W., Choi, E., Kim, J., Lee, Y. S., et al. (2022) · Yonsei Medical Journal · doi:10.3349/ymj.2022.63.4.317 · Cited by 4
Optimizing stroke prevention in elderly patients with atrial fibrillation
Lip, G. Y. H. (2016) · Journal of Thrombosis and Haemostasis · doi:10.1111/jth.13480 · Cited by 4
Self-citationMisconceptions on Interpretation of Risk Prediction Tools in Atrial Fibrillation
Nielsen, P. B., Larsen, T. B., & Lip, G. Y. H. (2016) · The American Journal of Medicine · doi:10.1016/j.amjmed.2015.11.038 · Cited by 4
“Atrial fibrillation patients with one stroke risk factor (ie, CHA2DS2-VASc score of 1 in males or 2 in females) have a positive net clinical benefit from OAC treatment, while patients with a CHA2DS2-VASc score of 0 in males or 1 in females did not benefit from OAC or even aspirin, compared with no treatment.(4) In the…”
BackgroundSelf-citationVoukalis, C., & Lip, G. Y. H. (2017) · Canadian Journal of Cardiology · doi:10.1016/j.cjca.2017.02.010 · Cited by 4
Self-citationPotpara, T., & Olesen, J. B. (2016) · Journal of the American College of Cardiology · doi:10.1016/j.jacc.2015.12.076 · Cited by 4
Polymeris, A. A., Koga, M., Strbian, D., Adhiyaman, V., Krishnan, M., Branca, M., Horvath, T., Goeldlin, M. B., Shim, G. C., Gumbinger, C., et al. (2025) · Journal of Stroke · doi:10.5853/jos.2024.04322 · Cited by 3
“We additionally analyzed the net clinical benefit of antiplatelet use over non-use, adopting established methodology as in prior research, 12,13 with weighting of the type of events for their impact on death and disability relative to recurrent ischemic stroke or systemic embolism.”
InfluentialShahid, F., Shantsila, E., & Lip, G. Y. H. (2016) · European Heart Journal Supplements · doi:10.1093/eurheartj/suw049 · Cited by 3
Self-citationStroke prevention in atrial fibrillation: can we do better?
Lane, D. A., & Lip, G. Y. H. (2016) · Nature Reviews Cardiology · doi:10.1038/nrcardio.2016.117 · Cited by 3
Self-citationShahid, F., Shantsila, E., & Lip, G. Y. H. (2016) · European Heart Journal - Cardiovascular Pharmacotherapy · doi:10.1093/ehjcvp/pvv057 · Cited by 3
Self-citation2025 Thai guideline for the diagnosis and management of atrial fibrillation
Ngarmukos, T., Methavigul, K., Rungpradubvong, V., Apiyasawat, S., Wongcharoen, W., Pumprueg, S., Boonyapisit, W., Suwanagool, A., Chantrarat, T., Makarawate, P., et al. (2025) · Asian Biomedicine · doi:10.2478/abm-2025-0028 · Cited by 2
“Patients with an annual risk of ≥1% but 2% for ischemic stroke and thromboembolism should be considered for OAC, balancing the benefits of stroke and thromboembolism risk reduction versus the individual patient’s bleeding risk [29, 30].”
InfluentialThromboemboliás kockázat pitvarfibrillációban
Csanádi, Z. (2016) · Orvosi Hetilap · doi:10.1556/650.2016.30575 · Cited by 2
Nielsen, P. B., Potpara, T., & Lip, G. Y. H. (2018) · Trends in Cardiovascular Medicine · doi:10.1016/j.tcm.2018.07.003 · Cited by 2
Self-citationOkutucu, S. (2020) · The Anatolian Journal of Cardiology · doi:10.14744/anatoljcardiol.2020.17064 · Cited by 2
“equal weight, and the paroxysmal nature of the AF may be considered (18).”
Shahid, F., Lip, G. Y. H., & Shantsila, E. (2016) · Canadian Journal of Cardiology · doi:10.1016/j.cjca.2016.05.002 · Cited by 1
Self-citationStroke prevention in atrial fibrillation: Where are we now?
Lip, G. Y. H. (2015) · Indian Heart Journal · doi:10.1016/j.ihj.2015.11.002 · Cited by 1
“The net clinical benefit is also positive for OAC vs untreated or OAC vs aspirin; in contrast, the NCB is neutral/negative for aspirin vs untreated.(15)”
Self-citationBeneficios y riesgos de los anticoagulantes orales en la fibrilación auricular
Roldána, V., & Marín, F. R. (2019) · Revista Española de Cardiología Suplementos · doi:10.1016/s1131-3587(19)30029-9 · Cited by 1
Optimizing prognosis in atrial fibrillation: A call to action in Portugal
Ferreira, J., António, N., Cortez‐Dias, N., Gonçalves, L. R., Sargento‐Freitas, J., HAFE, P. V., & Gil, V. M. (2020) · Revista Portuguesa de Cardiologia · doi:10.1016/j.repc.2020.07.011 · Cited by 1
Lip, G. Y. H. (2016) · Circulation · doi:10.1161/circulationaha.116.023663 · Cited by 1
“European Society of Cardiology (ESC) guideline recommendations.(21)”
BackgroundSelf-citationMazurek, M., & Lip, G. Y. H. (2017) · European Heart Journal Acute Cardiovascular Care · doi:10.1177/2048872616688455 · Cited by 1
Self-citationNielsen, P. B., Larsen, T. B., & Lip, G. Y. H. (2016) · Stroke · doi:10.1161/strokeaha.116.013672
Self-citationPotpara, T., Jokić, V., & Mijatovic, Z. (2016) · Srce i krvni sudovi · doi:10.5937/siks1601018p
Primärprävention und Sekundärprävention des Hirninfarkts
Ringelstein, E. B. (2020) · Springer Reference Medizin · doi:10.1007/978-3-662-60676-6_149
Risk Stratification in Atrial Fibrillation
Shahid, F., Dzeshka, M. S., Shantsila, E., & Lip, G. Y. H. (2018) · Elsevier eBooks · doi:10.1016/b978-0-323-55429-9.00004-2
Self-citationNielsen, P. B., Buchan, I. E., & Lip, G. Y. H. (2019) · The American Journal of Medicine · doi:10.1016/j.amjmed.2019.01.038
Self-citationSchlaganfall – Prävalenz, Bedeutung und Implikationen für die Prävention und Gesundheitsförderung
Uphaus, T., & Gröschel, K. (2021) · Springer Reference Pflege, Therapie, Gesundheit · doi:10.1007/978-3-662-62426-5_43
Capiau, A., Grymonprez, M., Backer, T. L. M. D., Gevaert, S., Boussery, K., & Lahousse, L. (2021) · Tijdschrift voor Geneeskunde · doi:10.47671/tvg.77.21.107
Metadata
- Authors
- Skjøth, F., Nielsen, P., Larsen, T. B., & Lip, G.
- Affiliations
- Birmingham City Hospital (GB)
- Aalborg University Hospital (DK)
- Corresponding author
- Lip, Gregory
- Venue
- Thrombosis and Haemostasis
- Publisher
- Georg Thieme Verlag KG
- Published
- 2015
- Volume
- 114
- Issue
- 10
- Pages
- 826-834
- ISSN
- 0340-6245 (ISSN-L)
- 2567-689X
- OpenAlex
- W2160740406
- Cited by
- 106
- References
- 30
- Citations by year
- 2026: 2 · 2025: 5 · 2024: 2 · 2023: 1 · 2022: 2 · 2021: 9 · 2020: 7 · 2019: 9 · 2018: 11 · 2017: 15 · 2016: 39 · 2015: 4
- FWCI
- 16.87
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Thrombosis and Haemostasis (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- VBN Forskningsportal (Aalborg Universitet) (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Cardiology and Cardiovascular Medicine › Atrial Fibrillation Management and Outcomes
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Clinical Neurology › Acute Ischemic Stroke Management
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Internal Medicine › Venous Thromboembolism Diagnosis and Management
- Keywords
- non-valvular atrial fibrillation, CHA2DS2-VASc score, oral anticoagulation, warfarin, aspirin, stroke prevention, intracranial hemorrhage, bleeding risk, net clinical benefit
- MeSH terms
- Administration, Oral, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Aspirin, Atrial Fibrillation, Decision Support Techniques, Denmark, Female, Fibrinolytic Agents, Hemorrhage, Humans, Male, Middle Aged, Predictive Value of Tests, Registries, Risk Factors, Time Factors, Warfarin, Treatment Outcome, Risk Assessment, Patient Selection, Stroke
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