The Heart of 25 by 25: Achieving the Goal of Reducing Global and Regional Premature Deaths From Cardiovascular Diseases and Stroke: A Modeling Study From the American Heart Association and World Heart Federation
Open accessAbstract
In 2011, the United Nations set key targets to reach by 2025 to reduce the risk of premature noncommunicable disease death by 25% by 2025. With cardiovascular disease being the largest contributor to global mortality, accounting for nearly half of the 36 million annual noncommunicable disease deaths, achieving the 2025 goal requires that cardiovascular disease and its risk factors be aggressively addressed. The Global Cardiovascular Disease Taskforce, comprising the World Heart Federation, American Heart Association, American College of Cardiology Foundation, European Heart Network, and European Society of Cardiology, with expanded representation from Asia, Africa, and Latin America, along with global cardiovascular disease experts, disseminates information and approaches to reach the United Nations 2025 targets. The writing committee, which reflects Global Cardiovascular Disease Taskforce membership, engaged the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, to develop region-specific estimates of premature cardiovascular mortality in 2025 based on various scenarios. Results show that >5 million premature CVD deaths among men and 2.8 million among women are projected worldwide by 2025, which can be reduced to 3.5 million and 2.2 million, respectively, if risk factor targets for blood pressure, tobacco use, diabetes mellitus, and obesity are achieved. However, global risk factor targets have various effects, depending on region. For most regions, United Nations targets for reducing systolic blood pressure and tobacco use have more substantial effects on future scenarios compared with maintaining current levels of body mass index and fasting plasma glucose. However, preventing increases in body mass index has the largest effect in some high-income countries. An approach achieving reductions in multiple risk factors has the largest impact for almost all regions. Achieving these goals can be accomplished only if countries set priorities, implement cost-effective population wide strategies, and collaborate in public-private partnerships across multiple sectors.
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Tobacco control has been identified as a crucial and necessary part of reaching global non-communicable disease goals, with one in six non-communicable disease-related deaths being attributable to smoking tobacco use.
“Tobacco control has been identified as a crucial and necessary part of reaching these goals, with one in six non-communicable disease-related deaths being attributable to smoking tobacco use.”
From Spatial, temporal, and demographic patterns in prevalence of smoking tobacco use and attributable disease burden in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 (2021) · cites this paper as [14]
The Conclusions (Sacco p. 13) say aggressive tobacco-control strategies are required to meet the 25 × 25 goal, supporting the first part of the claim. The paper does not state that smoking accounts for one in six non-communicable disease deaths; searches for that fraction and for 16% attributable deaths found no supporting passage. (LLM, conf=0.87)
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- Authors
- Sacco, R. L., Roth, G. A., Reddy, K. S., Arnett, D. K., Bonita, R., Gaziano, T. A., Heidenreich, P. A., Huffman, M. D., Mayosi, B. M., Mendis, S., Murray, C. J. L., Perel, P., Piñeiro, D. J., Smith, S. C., Taubert, K. A., Wood, D. A., Zhao, D., & Zoghbi, W. A.
- Affiliations
- American Heart Association (US)
- ORCID
- Venue
- Circulation
- Published
- 2016-06-07
- Volume
- 133
- Issue
- 23
- Pages
- e674-90
- ISSN
- 0009-7322 (ISSN-L)
- 1524-4539
- OpenAlex
- W2346047523
- Cited by
- 268
- References
- 5
- Citations by year
- 2026: 19 · 2025: 40 · 2024: 40 · 2023: 40 · 2022: 24 · 2021: 26 · 2020: 18 · 2019: 14 · 2018: 19 · 2017: 23 · 2016: 5
- FWCI
- 16.80
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- Circulation (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- LSHTM Research Online (London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine) (acceptedVersion)
- Funders
- American Heart Association
- American College of Cardiology Foundation
- University of Washington
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Cardiology and Cardiovascular Medicine › Cardiovascular Health and Risk Factors
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Epidemiology › Healthcare Systems and Public Health
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Health Promotion and Cardiovascular Prevention
- Keywords
- cardiovascular mortality, stroke, non-communicable diseases, premature mortality, blood pressure, tobacco use, diabetes mellitus, obesity, body mass index, fasting blood glucose, mortality projections, regional disparities, public-private partnerships
- MeSH terms
- Intersectoral Collaboration, Adult, Age Factors, Aged, American Heart Association, Cardiology, Cardiovascular Diseases, Cause of Death, Female, Humans, Male, Middle Aged, Models, Cardiovascular, Prognosis, Risk Factors, Time Factors, United States, Global Health, Risk Assessment, Stroke, Interdisciplinary Communication
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